{"id":677233,"date":"2026-01-06T07:55:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T07:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/677233\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T07:55:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T07:55:11","slug":"is-there-hope-for-peace-in-ukraine-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/677233\/","title":{"rendered":"Is there hope for peace in Ukraine in 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"

After nearly four years of war, an estimated 1.5 million casualties, devastation and near-crippled economies on both sides, a resolution between Russia <\/a>and Ukraine<\/a> remains elusive.<\/p>\n

The drive for the right mix of concessions and security guarantees will bring political and military leaders together for talks in Paris on Tuesday. Europeans officials are discussing a peace strategy they hope can win the backing of US President Donald Trump. On the front line, questions swirl on both sides about how they want the war to end. <\/p>\n

Ukraine has signalled that it is willing to accept a ceasefire \u2013 a concession that includes losing a fifth of its territory \u2013 provided it receives firm security guarantees from America<\/a> that will deter any future Russian attack. The bigger question is whether Moscow wants peace<\/a> while its leaders believe there is a chance of more land being seized, even if it comes at a terrible cost. <\/p>\n

Added into the mix is America’s more aggressive stance following its Venezuela operations and belligerent talk of annexing Greenland, which could well change geopolitical dynamics. <\/p>\n

Corrosive effect of talks<\/b><\/p>\n

Analysts told The National that discussing a truce demoralises Ukrainian troops as the thinking is \u201cwhy go to the front line and be the last to die in the war?\u201d<\/p>\n

Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum at the Chatham House think tank, recently returned from the country where she found the peace process was having a corrosive effect. \u201cA lot of people are asking, why should I volunteer? Why should I mobilise if maybe peace is around the corner?\u201d she said. \u201cThis is part of Russia\u2019s game to undermine Ukraine internally.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bob Seely, a former British Conservative MP who visits Ukraine frequently, argued that dragging out talks helps Moscow by making the Kremlin appear reasonable, while also sowing division between Europe and the US and buying it time in the ground war. <\/p>\n

\u201cThese peace processes are also useful for the Russians because they demoralise the Ukrainian armed forces,\u201d Mr Seely added. \u201cIf you can convince yourself that the war is ending in a month\u2019s time, why die before armistice day?\u201d<\/p>\n

Delaying sanctions<\/b><\/p>\n

But there is one country that could, almost on its own, bring the fighting to an end. While Mr Trump<\/a> can be commended for driving forward a peace deal, experts argue that, if he were to impose hard \u201csecondary sanctions\u201d on Russian oil exports coupled with allowing Ukraine to use its long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, Russian President Vladimir Putin would rapidly conclude negotiations. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe elephant in the room is that the Americans and the Ukrainians can agree all they want, but unless Putin actually wants to stop invading Ukraine, I can\u2019t see how it\u2019s going to happen,\u201d Mr Seely said. \u201cThe best you might end up with in 2026 is a temporary ceasefire.\u201d<\/p>\n

There is growing suspicion that the talks are merely part of the Kremlin\u2019s procrastination strategy, stringing Washington along for as long as it can to delay harsher sanctions. <\/p>\n

Lynette Nusbacher, a former military intelligence analyst, was direct about Moscow\u2019s thinking on the negotiations. \u201cAbsolutely nothing has changed from a Russian point of view,\u201d she said. \u201cThey made their demands in June 2024 and it is Trump\u2019s responsibility to deliver Ukrainian acquiescence to those demands.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr Seely suggests Washington’s optimism regarding a deal \u201cmay well be very misplaced”.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Russians are fundamentally trying to play a very clever game to ensure that the Americans don\u2019t put on secondary sanctions, or those sanctions are delayed as long as possible and want to draw out these negotiations for as long as possible,” he said.<\/p>\n

Drone warfare<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite Moscow\u2019s claims of victory \u2013 which it allegedly tried to strengthen by getting its soldiers to enter a town and take pictures of Russian flags before leaving quickly \u2013 its advances have come at great cost. The latest UK Ministry of Defence intelligence shows that, since it invaded in February 2022, Russia has suffered more than one million casualties, including an estimated 300,000 dead. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Russians repeatedly demonstrate that they are winning just scraps of territory in order to achieve a political victory based on non-existent military victory,\u201d Ms Nusbacher said.<\/p>\n

She argued that Ukraine could be viewed as winning tactically because it was forcing Russia into \u201cthe single most costly thing you can do in war, which is to attack a well-dug-in position and the Russians are paying a horrific price for it”.<\/p>\n

As long as Ukraine continues to “exact that price, they are winning the war\u201d unless they suffer a huge withdrawal of western support, particularly US intelligence help. \u201cThe Ukrainians are perfectly capable of continuing to achieve battlefield victory as long as the Russians keep on charging into their drones and guns,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

It is a view shared by former army officer Ben Barry, a Russia expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. \u201cThe Russians still grind forward very slowly on enormous casualties,” he said. <\/p>\n

The problem for Kyiv is not battlefield collapse, but manpower and time because, as Ms Nusbacher puts it, \u201cas long as Putin keeps thinking he\u2019s winning, and as long as Russian elites are unable to disagree with him, I don\u2019t expect to see any change”. That is especially true with the \u201crelentless\u201d domestic messaging that success is inevitable. <\/p>\n

Economy wobbles <\/b><\/p>\n

Ms Lutsevych said Mr Putin \u201csimply has to run out of money”, which would make it a struggle to get more recruits, forcing him to order an unpopular nationwide mobilisation.<\/p>\n

While the Russian economy was \u201cclearly under considerable pressure”, Mr Barry said, it had not yet cracked, showing a resilience that has likely led to Mr Putin\u2019s refusal to compromise.<\/p>\n

Lame ducks<\/b><\/p>\n

Key to imposing those sanctions is what happens in the White House. \u201cThis current administration is just unwilling, for whatever reasons, to be tough on the Russians,\u201d Mr Seely said. <\/p>\n

But that could change as Mr Trump heads towards becoming a \u201clame duck\u201d president, especially as Republicans are likely to lose control of the House or Senate in the autumn midterm elections. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere is then the possibility that fairly broad American support for Ukraine might tend to push Trump towards a more traditional, adversarial approach to Russia,\u201d Ms Nusbacher said.<\/p>\n

What next? <\/b><\/p>\n

To end the conflict, Ukraine would reluctantly agree to a ceasefire along the current front line, because its war-weary population accepts that \u201cif you lost the battle, you lost the territory”, Ms Lutsevych said. \u201cPeople would reconcile with that.\u201d<\/p>\n

The most optimistic scenario, Mr Barry said, would come when Mr Putin recognised that further battlefield gains were too costly. \u201cGetting him to compromise could be accelerated by more American pressure is a possibility”, although there was little sign of that yet.<\/p>\n

The experts’ overall outlook for 2026 was bleak, with Russia failing to win decisively but also not being forced to halt, while Ukraine was under immense strain. \u201cIn very simple terms, somebody will have to tell Putin that he cannot win militarily,\u201d Ms Lutsevych said. \u201cUntil then peace will remain elusive.\u201d<\/p>\n

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