{"id":677654,"date":"2026-01-06T12:24:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T12:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/677654\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T12:24:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T12:24:11","slug":"russias-new-build-home-sales-to-fall-in-2026-state-housing-agency-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/677654\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s New-Build Home Sales to Fall in 2026, State Housing Agency Says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s housing market avoided the downturn many analysts had feared last year, but state housing agency Dom.RF expects<\/a> sales of newly built homes to fall sharply in 2026 as mortgage subsidies are tightened.<\/p>\n

Dom.RF forecasts sales of new housing at 21-22 million square meters worth 4.5-4.6 trillion rubles ($55.4-$56.6 billion) in 2026. That would be down about 15% by volume and 10% by value from 2025.<\/p>\n

Final data for 2025 have not yet been released, but preliminary estimates show sales broadly matched 2024 levels despite record-high interest rates and the cancellation of a nationwide subsidized mortgage program.<\/p>\n

About 25-26 million square meters were sold last year compared with 25.3 million in 2024, while sales value rose 9% to 5-5.2 trillion rubles ($61.5-$64.0 billion) from 4.7 trillion rubles ($57.8 billion).<\/p>\n

Dom.RF said the expected decline reflects stricter rules for the government\u2019s family mortgage program, which dominated the market last year. Around 70% of new homes were purchased with mortgages, many under the subsidized scheme.<\/p>\n

Under current rules, families with a child under seven or with two minor children can take out mortgages at a fixed rate of 6%.<\/p>\n

But the government plans to introduce differentiated rates based on family size, cutting rates to 4% for families with three children while raising them to as much as 12% for families with one child.\u00a0The legislation could be adopted early this year, a lawmaker\u00a0said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\t\tnews
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\t\t\t\tNumber of New Moscow Housing Projects Falls to 12-Year Low \u2013 Vedomosti
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Dom.RF estimates<\/a> that nearly 3 million families could be excluded from the program, as more than half of Russian families have only one child.<\/p>\n

Sberbank estimates that raising the rate from 6% to 12% would lift monthly payments to around 54,000 rubles ($664) from 32,000-34,000 rubles ($394-$418), potentially pushing some borrowers above permitted debt-to-income limits, first deputy CEO Kirill Tsaryov has said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Additional tightening is planned. From February, the Finance Ministry will cut compensation paid to banks for issuing subsidized mortgages by 0.5 percentage points, reducing their profitability.<\/p>\n

Families will also be limited<\/a> to one subsidized mortgage, whereas both spouses can currently take out loans.<\/p>\n

Anticipation of the changes triggered a surge in mortgage lending late last year. Dom.RF said demand for family mortgages jumped in the fourth quarter as buyers rushed to secure loans before new rules take effect.<\/p>\n

In December alone, banks issued about 150,000 mortgages worth roughly 735 billion rubles ($9.0 billion), the highest monthly total since June 2024, the final month of the now-scrapped nationwide subsidized mortgage scheme.<\/p>\n

Dom.RF warned that this front-loaded demand would weigh on sales this year.<\/p>\n

The surge helped the market avoid a slump in 2025 after developers initially relied on installment sales before mortgage lending recovered,\u00a0Dom.RF said.<\/p>\n

\t\tnews
\n\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tRussian Homebuyers Struggle as Rising Prices Outpace Income Growth
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Looking ahead, Dom.RF analysts said the housing market\u2019s performance in 2026 will depend largely on how quickly the Central Bank cuts its key interest rate.<\/p>\n

Lower rates would support demand for market-priced mortgages and reduce borrowing costs for developers, who rely heavily on project financing.<\/p>\n

Rate cuts in the second half of 2025 also prompted some households to move savings out of bank deposits and into property.<\/p>\n

The Central Bank has said<\/a> slower inflows into term deposits were accompanied by increased investment in securities and real estate.<\/p>\n

Surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation for the Central Bank show real estate remains one of Russians\u2019 preferred investment options, second only to deposits at Sberbank.<\/p>\n

In December, 42% of respondents named<\/a> Sberbank deposits as the most reliable investment, compared with 29% for real estate. The two options were tied at 29% as the most profitable.<\/p>\n

Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, said<\/a> those figures reflect reality, noting that a significant share of household savings continues to flow into property.<\/p>\n

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