{"id":683184,"date":"2026-01-08T22:43:10","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T22:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/683184\/"},"modified":"2026-01-08T22:43:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T22:43:10","slug":"preview-december-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-finally-past-the-shutdown-fog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/683184\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">What&#8217;s expected:<\/p>\n<ul data-v-4026719d=\"\">\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Consensus estimate +60K (range +19K to +155K)<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">November +64K<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Private consensus estimate +64K<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.5% vs 4.6% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Participation rate consensus 62.5% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.7%<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Avg hourly earnings y\/y exp +3.6% y\/y vs +3.5% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Avg hourly earnings m\/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">December jobs so far:<\/p>\n<ul data-v-4026719d=\"\">\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">ADP report +41K vs +50K expected and -29K<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">ISM services employment 52.0 vs 49.0 prior &#8212; 10 month high<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">ISM manufacturing employment 44.9 vs 44.0 prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Challenger Job Cuts 35,553 y\/y vs 71,321 &#8212; 17 month low<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Philly employment +12.9 vs +6.0 prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Empire employment 7.3 vs 6.6 prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4026719d=\"\">Initial jobless claims survey week 224K vs 225K expected<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Looking through these numbers, there are plenty of reasons to see upsides to +60K and potentially in a big way. A reading close to 100 would end the slim hopes of a January cut and deeply slash the 43% chance of a March cut that&#8217;s currently priced in. <\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Seasonally, there is a minuscule drag on non-farm payrolls in December, according to BMO with the report missing 52% of the time and beating 48% of the time. <\/p>\n<p>non-farm payrolls chart<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">In general, the US dollar outperforms on strong data and slides on weak data, with USD\/JPY generally the cleanest trade on that theme. In contrast, the stock market generally dislikes a strong jobs report as it diminishes the chance of a rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">On the unemployment rate, note that the unrounded figure in November was 4.564%, which is very close to being rounded down to 4.5%. The market increasingly watches those margins so be wary of a slight change looking like a whole tick.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s expected: Consensus estimate +60K (range +19K to +155K) November +64K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":683185,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[51,1700,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-683184","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115861900980353889","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/683184","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=683184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/683184\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/683185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=683184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=683184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=683184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}