{"id":69473,"date":"2025-05-02T21:57:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T21:57:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/69473\/"},"modified":"2025-05-02T21:57:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T21:57:08","slug":"3-roads-lie-ahead-for-bitcoin-which-one-will-btc-choose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/69473\/","title":{"rendered":"3 roads lie ahead for Bitcoin &#8211; Which one will BTC choose?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin\u2019s momentum ratio outlined three potential scenarios for BTC\u2019s next leg.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given that a correction has already occurred, a deeper pullback is less probable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a> started May off with bullish momentum, closing at $97,406.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This breakout above a critical resistance level strengthens the bull case, especially given BTC\u2019s previous inability to sustain above this threshold since late February.<\/p>\n<p>However, the move also introduces bearish implications. Bitcoin\u2019s price now sits above the <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/charts\/btc-on-chain-cost-basis?a=BTC&amp;chartStyle=line&amp;s=1230940800&amp;u=1746172719&amp;zoom=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>On the 22nd of April, this shift pushed 155-day-old BTC from an underwater position to an unrealized profit state.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The STH realized price, now at $93,342, represents the average on-chain cost basis for these holders, establishing a significant support floor for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>So, while a new all-time high appears within striking distance, expecting a smooth, uninterrupted ascent would still be premature.<\/p>\n<p>Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin\u2019s next rally<\/p>\n<p>Building on Bitcoin\u2019s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1917862910514135195\/photo\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">highlighted three key scenarios<\/a> for BTC\u2019s next move after breaking the critical $97k overhead supply barrier.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC\u2019s on-chain momentum sits in the \u201cstart\u201d rally zone, with the momentum ratio at approximately 0.8 (80%).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This means the market is positioned for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Bitcoin-Composite-Index-v.2.0.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-487636\" class=\"wp-image-487636 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin composite index\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2250\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Bitcoin-Composite-Index-v.2.0.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-487636\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/p>\n<p>If the momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and maintains that level, key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would signal a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin\u2019s price into the $150k\u2013$175k range.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, STHs would start cashing out, leading to a potential correction to the $70k\u2013$85k range.<\/p>\n<p>In the third scenario, if the ratio holds in the 0.8-1.0 range, <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">BTC<\/a> will likely stay in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k. <\/p>\n<p>In this scenario, market participants would hold their positions, but significant new exposure or buying pressure wouldn\u2019t materialize.<\/p>\n<p>BTC\u2019s most likely next move<\/p>\n<p>In the bullish scenario, if Bitcoin\u2019s momentum ratio climbs above 1.0 and sustains, we could see a rally toward the $150k\u2013$175k range, echoing previous macro cycles.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, while in 2021, it tripled after breaking prior highs \u2013 both cycles marked by NUPL and MVRV ratios entering euphoric zones.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>At press time, the MVRV sat at 2.16 \u2014 well below the 3.9 threshold historically seen near market tops. Hence, there\u2019s still headroom before reaching overvaluation. <\/p>\n<p>This implies that the current market is not yet in a euphoric phase.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/glassnode-studio_btc-market-value-to-realized-value-ratio-mvrv.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-487675\" class=\"wp-image-487675 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"BTC MVRV\" width=\"3200\" height=\"1800\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/glassnode-studio_btc-market-value-to-realized-value-ratio-mvrv.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-487675\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, NUPL was holding at 0.54, indicating early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would align with past bull market peaks, suggesting room for further upside.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/glassnode-studio_btc-net-unrealized-profit-loss-nupl.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-487676\" class=\"wp-image-487676 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"BTC NUPL\" width=\"3200\" height=\"1800\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/glassnode-studio_btc-net-unrealized-profit-loss-nupl.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-487676\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/p>\n<p>However, if sustained buying pressure fails to emerge, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k\u2013$110k becomes more likely, especially with resistance-driven corrections.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback.<\/p>\n<p>Keep an eye on these indicators, as they hold the key to <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin\u2019s<\/a> next move.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/tron-trx-traders-split-as-10b-milestone-sparks-breakout-hopes-details\/\" rel=\"prev noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\">All about TRON\u2019s $10B latest milestone and why TRX traders are split<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s momentum ratio outlined three potential scenarios for BTC\u2019s next leg. Given that a correction has already occurred,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":69474,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[52,51,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-69473","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-ambcrypto","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114440480234027811","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}