{"id":698038,"date":"2026-01-15T16:46:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T16:46:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/698038\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:46:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T16:46:14","slug":"john-curtice-gives-verdict-on-new-survation-holyrood-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/698038\/","title":{"rendered":"John Curtice gives verdict on new Survation Holyrood poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n The SNP<\/strong><\/a> are on course to be the largest party come May, with Scottish Labour<\/strong><\/a> and Reform UK neck-and-neck for second place and the Greens in sixth, according to a new Survation poll<\/a> commissioned by True North Advisors.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n On the constituency vote, the SNP<\/a> polled at 34%, with Reform UK in second on 19%. Scottish Labour<\/a> polled in third at 16%, followed by the Tories<\/strong><\/a> on 13%, the LibDems 9%, and Greens 8%. Alba polled at 1%.\n<\/p>\n

\n On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 28%, while Reform UK and Scottish Labour both polled at 18%. The Tories<\/a> were on 13%, the LibDems 11%. The Greens scored 9% and Alba 3%.\n<\/p>\n

\n READ MORE:<\/strong> Anas Sarwar left red-faced after clash with John Swinney on income tax<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\n Curtice highlighted that even among those who voted Labour in 2024, well over a third say Keir Starmer<\/a>‘s performance means they will likely not be doing so again in May.\n<\/p>\n

\n He said the SNP are lapping up the collapse in Labour support, but are still likely to find themselves in a weaker position than they are now at Holyrood.\n<\/p>\n

\n Curtice said: “The SNP still seem well set to continue to provide Scotland\u2019s devolved government. However, this is more a reflection of the collapse in Labour\u2019s support than an endorsement of the party\u2019s record in government.\n<\/p>\n

\n “Meanwhile the party is still well short of the level of support it is likely to need to have a chance of achieving John Swinney<\/a>\u2019s target of an overall majority.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u00a0“Voters\u2019 evaluations of the UK government hang like a cloud over Anas Sarwar\u2019s hopes of winning the keys to Bute House. Even among those who voted Labour in 2024, as many as 37% say the record of Sir Keir Starmer\u2019s government makes them less likely to vote Labour in May whereas only 29% indicate that it makes then more likely to do so.\n<\/p>\n

\n “Meanwhile, over half (52%) of 2024 Labour voters now say they disapprove of the Prime Minister, up from 32% a year ago.”\n<\/p>\n

\n READ MORE:<\/strong> Scottish Labour MSP fails to show face as paedo pal scandal deepens<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\n Curtice highlighted how the SNP are “well down” on the 48% and 40% they won in 2021 in each vote and, although they have a 15 point lead, this is down to the fragmentation of the Unionist vote.\n<\/p>\n

\n “It is still at risk of finding itself in a significantly weaker position at Holyrood than at present and is certainly unlikely to secure a majority,” Curtice went on.\n<\/p>\n

\n Seat projections from the Survation polling suggest the SNP will be the largest party with 61 seats.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n Reform UK and Scottish Labour would be tied on 18 seats, the Tories would have 12 seats and the Scottish Liberal Democrats<\/strong><\/a> 11. The Scottish Green Party would win nine seats, meaning that Scotland is on course to elect a pro-independence majority of 70 MSPs.\n<\/p>\n

\n There are 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, meaning 65 MSPs are needed to form a majority government.\n<\/p>\n

\n Among devolved leaders, John Swinney<\/strong><\/a> received an approval rating of -5% and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar<\/strong><\/a> recorded an approval rating of -18%.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n For the survey, Survation polled 835 Scots between January 8 and January 12, 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The SNP are on course to be the largest party come May, with Scottish Labour and Reform UK…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":698039,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8816],"tags":[748,1102,4884,712,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-698038","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-edinburgh","8":"tag-britain","9":"tag-edinburgh","10":"tag-great-britain","11":"tag-scotland","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115900133102415778","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=698038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698038\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/698039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=698038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=698038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=698038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}