real toll<\/a> includes more than 1,000 protesters, since demonstrations erupted in late December. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these figures.<\/p>\nTrump called on Iranians to take over state institutions, promising that \u201chelp is on the way\u201d. While it wasn\u2019t clear what kind of attack he was considering, his remarks left the region bracing for an escalation.<\/p>\n
Arab Gulf nations fear that a military strike on Iran could disrupt oil prices, shatter their reputation as safe havens for business, and trigger an Iranian retaliation on their soil.<\/p>\n
It wouldn\u2019t be the first time. In 2019, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen struck Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil facilities, temporarily reducing Saudi oil production. Last June, Tehran attacked Qatar\u2019s Al Udeid airbase, which hosts American troops, after the US struck a key nuclear facility in Iran.<\/p>\n
Iran gave ample warning that it would carry out the attack, which marked the end of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, yet it created a precedent. And while that conflict weakened Iran\u2019s military capabilities, the Islamic Republic still has an arsenal to hurt US interests in the region.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran has ballistic missiles, supersonic missiles and militia groups around, so if they are given a reason to hit, they would,\u201d said Seloom.<\/p>\n
On Wednesday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had warned regional countries, from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Turkiye, that US bases in those nations would be attacked if the US targets Iran. That was followed by the drawdown of \u200dsome personnel \u200dfrom the Al Udeid airbase.<\/p>\n
Speaking to reporters in the White House later on Wednesday, Trump said he had received information that \u201cthe killing in Iran is stopping, is stopped \u2026 and there\u2019s no plan for executions\u201d. While some interpreted that as an off-ramp to de-escalation, the US president did not rule out military action.<\/p>\n
Unintended consequences<\/p>\n
Each member of the Gulf Cooperation Council has a different history with Iran but they all fear what would happen next and who would fill the vacuum should Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei be replaced or the whole system abruptly collapse, experts say.<\/p>\n
The collapse of Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion, and the chaos that followed \u2013 including a deadly civil war, the strengthening of al-Qaeda, and the eventual emergence of ISIL (ISIS) \u2013 is an experience Arab Gulf countries do not want to see repeated in a country with a population of more than 90 million, an arsenal of weapons at its disposal, and a badly weakened yet existent network of allies in the region.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey may like to see the Iranian leadership weakened, but all of them are more concerned about a scenario of chaos and uncertainty and the possibility of more radical elements coming to power there,\u201d said Khalaf.<\/p>\n
Qatar, Kuwait and Oman have found their way to exist with their neighbour on the northern shore of the Gulf \u2013 Doha even shares with Tehran the world\u2019s largest natural gas reservoir.<\/p>\n
The UAE\u2019s Dubai is also a key port for trade with Iran and the two countries enjoy a robust economic partnership. The UAE would therefore greatly suffer from unrest in Iran or an attack on its soil. Still, Emirati officials have remained silent in the past week having diverged from other GCC countries by cozying up to Israel and taking different positions in Sudan and Yemen.<\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been arch-foes, but in recent years the rivalry has morphed into a pragmatic relationship based on keeping channels of communication open and preventing each other from escalation.<\/p>\n
Riyadh is especially wary of regional destabilisation as the Kingdom embarks on a series of ambitious economic reforms to diversify its reliance on oil and boost its tourism sector \u2013 goals that require stability at home and in the broader region.<\/p>\n
\u201cSaudi [Arabia] is not comfortable at all with regime change anywhere \u2013 it\u2019s radical and extreme and outcomes are uncertain and risky,\u201d Khalaf added.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur goal is to achieve stability and calm so that we can direct our resources toward building a better future for our people,\u201d Saudi Arabia\u2019s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir said on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Still, Khaled Batarfi, a Saudi political analyst, said that Riyadh would welcome changes in Iran, especially if they are gradual, bringing about a leadership willing to curtail its nuclear and missile programmes and one that is less opposed to the US.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut a sudden change like a regime change with the risk of the country\u2019s disintegration is not going to be good for anyone,\u201d said Batarfi. \u201cThe whole region is on fire and we don\u2019t need to add another fire to our doors.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Arab Gulf nations have been watching nervously as neighbouring Iran has been engulfed in nationwide protests. United States…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":699471,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5311],"tags":[32,83259,774,837,839,12,28137,6858,285,2579,6860,6506,2723,49,978,286,659],"class_list":{"0":"post-699470","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-states","8":"tag-donald-trump","9":"tag-gcc","10":"tag-iran","11":"tag-israel","12":"tag-middle-east","13":"tag-news","14":"tag-oil-and-gas","15":"tag-oman","16":"tag-politics","17":"tag-protests","18":"tag-qatar","19":"tag-saudi-arabia","20":"tag-united-arab-emirates","21":"tag-united-states","22":"tag-us","23":"tag-us-canada","24":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115903801769389405","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/699470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=699470"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/699470\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/699471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=699470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=699470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=699470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}