{"id":7375,"date":"2025-04-10T08:34:13","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T08:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/7375\/"},"modified":"2025-04-10T08:34:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T08:34:13","slug":"think-the-worst-is-over-for-markets-jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-still-sees-a-us-recession-ahead-despite-trumps-90-day-tariff-pause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/7375\/","title":{"rendered":"Think the worst is over for markets? JPMorgan\u2019s Jamie Dimon still sees a US recession ahead despite Trump\u2019s 90-day tariff pause"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite Wall Street\u2019s initial sigh of relief, JPMorgan Chase<\/a> has held firm on its warning: a U.S. recession<\/a> remains more likely than not. On Wednesday, the financial giant reaffirmed its 60% probability call, even after President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to most of his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs.<\/p>\n

The 90-day reprieve, which notably excludes China, comes after a brutal week in global markets. The S&P 500 teetered on the edge of bear market territory. U.S. Treasuries sold off. Confidence wavered.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s move, seemingly aimed at calming investors, may have bought some time. But it hasn\u2019t changed the trajectory, according to JPMorgan\u2019s economic team. Their report, obtained by Newsweek, called the China-specific tariffs \u201cshocking\u201d and described the average U.S. tariff rate\u2014after accounting for the pause and China\u2019s hike to 125%\u2014as \u201croughly 25%, a touch higher than the rate at the end of last week.\u201d
\u201cCombined with the ongoing policy chaos on trade and domestic fiscal matters, along with the still-large losses in equity markets and hit to confidence, it remains difficult to see the US avoiding recession,\u201d JPMorgan economists wrote.Dimon\u2019s recession warningSpeaking to Fox Business on Wednesday, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon<\/a> echoed that sentiment. \u201cA recession is a likely outcome,\u201d he said, pointing to fragile consumer confidence, surging bond yields, and a flurry of retaliatory tariffs from China. \u201cI hear it from just everybody now: \u2018I\u2019m going to cut back a little bit. I\u2019m gonna wait, see what happens,\u2019\u201d he told Maria Bartiromo. \u201cThat is kind of recessionary talk.\u201d
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Dimon warned that defaults could follow. \u201cIf you have rates going up a little bit, and inflation is sticky, and credit spreads are gapping out, which they\u2019re going to, I think you\u2019ll see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time,\u201d he said.His message was clear: progress on trade agreements is essential to stem further damage. \u201cFixing these tariff issues and trade issues would be a good thing to do,\u201d he said, adding that \u201cif there is [a recession], hopefully it\u2019ll be short.\u201dTrump spins the messageBut rather than acknowledge the depth of Dimon\u2019s warnings, Trump seized on a single, selective quote. “‘Fixing Trade and Tariffs is a good thing!’ Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Chairman & CEO, on Maria B Show!” Trump posted on Truth Social. He painted Dimon’s words as validation of his policies\u2014despite the broader caution Dimon expressed.<\/p>\n

Trump also used the moment to promote investment in the U.S. \u201cBE COOL!\u201d he declared. \u201cTHIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!\u201d He urged businesses to relocate to the U.S., promising \u201cZERO TARIFFS\u201d and fast-track approvals.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, China responded to Trump\u2019s 104% import tax with 84% tariffs on American goods, triggering fears of an all-out trade war. Stock markets suffered their third consecutive day of declines.<\/p>\n

The other side of the pauseThe 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs only applies to countries other than China. America\u2019s baseline tariffs will now sit at 10%, down from the country-specific rates Trump announced last week, some of which hit 50%. But Trump\u2019s earlier levies on sectors such as steel, aluminium, and auto parts remain intact. Tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports not covered by the USMCA are still set at 25%.<\/p>\n

In contrast to JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs<\/a> has downgraded its recession forecast to 45%, citing temporary relief from the pause. But others remain wary.<\/p>\n

Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute<\/a>, said on CNN, \u201cMarkets are relieved a bit, but I don’t know how you could possibly think the U.S. is a sound, safe and stable place to invest when the president is flipping tariffs on and off like a light switch.\u201d<\/p>\n

Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, told CNBC, \u201cGiven how depressed stock prices and sentiment had become, the 90-day pause is sparking a violent rebound\u2026 But tariffs are not going away. China’s tariff rate is now in triple-digit territory, and who knows what happens in 90 days when this pause concludes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Long-term risks and global falloutIn his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon went deeper. He warned that Trump\u2019s tariff blitz risks fracturing global alliances. \u201cThe recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,\u201d he wrote, calling for stronger trade and investment ties with countries like India and Brazil.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t need to ask many nonaligned nations, like India and Brazil, to align with us \u2013 but we can bring them closer to us by simply extending a friendly hand with trade and investment,\u201d Dimon wrote. India, recently slapped with a 26% tariff, and Brazil, facing 10% duties, are already feeling the impact.<\/p>\n

While Trump officials sent mixed messages on whether tariffs are negotiable, countries like Vietnam and Japan have begun talks. Others, like Israel, have made trade pledges. But China shows no signs of backing down.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe quicker this issue is resolved, the better, because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse,\u201d Dimon warned. Even without a formal recession, he noted, the U.S. could still face a serious economic slowdown<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For now, Trump\u2019s pause has cooled markets\u2014but only slightly. The real test will come in 90 days, when the tariffs are due to be re-evaluated.<\/p>\n

Dimon remains hopeful for progress but deeply cautious. \u201cI\u2019m taking a calm view, but I think it could get worse if we don\u2019t make some progress here,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Whether Washington can broker trade agreements quickly enough to prevent further economic pain remains to be seen. For JPMorgan, the answer is already in: the threat of recession still looms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Despite Wall Street\u2019s initial sigh of relief, JPMorgan Chase has held firm on its warning: a U.S. recession…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7376,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,4542,2910,2614,3802,2792,3621,4539,2441,977,4541,4540,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-7375","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cato-institute","10":"tag-china-tariffs","11":"tag-donald-trump-tariffs","12":"tag-economic-slowdown","13":"tag-goldman-sachs","14":"tag-jamie-dimon","15":"tag-jpmorgan-chase","16":"tag-markets","17":"tag-stock-market","18":"tag-trade-tariffs","19":"tag-u-s-recession","20":"tag-uk","21":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7375\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}