{"id":76010,"date":"2025-05-05T08:38:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T08:38:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/76010\/"},"modified":"2025-05-05T08:38:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-05T08:38:08","slug":"is-bitcoin-heading-for-another-2022-style-capitulation-heres-what-you-need-to-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/76010\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin heading for another 2022-style capitulation? Here\u2019s what you need to know!"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin\u2019s (STH) cost basis could shape near-term market direction<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A decisive drop below this level? That\u2019s when the real fireworks could start<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin\u2019s [BTC]<\/a> short-term holder (STH) cost basis is currently sitting at a lofty $93,460. Hence, it is a key inflection point for market sentiment.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A dip below it? Well, we could see panic buttons getting smashed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Historically, dips under the STH realized price have been precursors to full-blown capitulation phases, especially among newer entrants sitting on thinning margins.<\/p>\n<p>Flashback to the 2022 bear market \u2013 Bitcoin breached its STH cost basis multiple times with brutal consequences. In May, the spot price nosedived to $30k while STHs were positioned around $34k \u2014 A signal of mounting pressure. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-short-term-on-chain-cost-basis.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-488349\" class=\"wp-image-488349 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin STH cost basis\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1440\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-short-term-on-chain-cost-basis.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-488349\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/p>\n<p>June saw Bitcoin cascade to $25k against a $32k cost basis. By September, it broke below $19k while STHs clung to a $27k average.<\/p>\n<p>Each deviation below sparked sharp sell-offs, mass liquidations, and a feedback loop of fear. If Bitcoin slips below the current $93k-level, expect a replay of that volatility.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s knack for defying expectations<\/p>\n<p>Open Interest (OI) is a crucial metric in this equation. As <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoins-recovery-on-track-this-signals-btcs-potential-for-100k-breakout\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin flashes bullish signals<\/a>, rising OI is seen as a green light for more liquidity and market action.<\/p>\n<p>However, when Bitcoin dips, that same liquidity can become a ticking time bomb. More positions to liquidate means the risk of a liquidation avalanche, sending prices spiralling faster.<\/p>\n<p>Flashback to the 2022 bear market \u2013 As Bitcoin crashed from $50k to $16k, the OI stayed stubbornly high at $20 billion \u2013 Signaling heavy leverage. When the support broke, a massive liquidation cascade followed.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin\u2019s OI was $64.82 billion, the same level it was when BTC flirted with $100k. This suggested that the derivatives market could be getting a bit overheated.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-04-184221.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-488385\" class=\"wp-image-488385 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin OI\" width=\"1383\" height=\"431\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-04-184221.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-488385\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Coinglass<\/p>\n<p>With Bitcoin\u2019s knack for surprising the market, keeping tabs on these <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/BitcoinOpenInterest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">metrics<\/a> is a must.<\/p>\n<p>If BTC falls below its short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $93k, brace for a possible mass exodus. In fact, what might start as a small \u201cdip\u201d could quickly spiral into capitulation as OI positions get liquidated in unison.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPrevious: <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/a-5-dip-for-trons-price-weak-demand-may-lead-to\/\" rel=\"next noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\">A 5% dip for TRON\u2019s price? Weak demand may lead to\u2026<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/dogwifhats-price-wif-at-a-make-or-break-level-will-it-fall-by-25\/\" rel=\"prev noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\">Dogwifhat\u2019s price (WIF) at a make-or-break level \u2013 Will it fall by 25%?<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s (STH) cost basis could shape near-term market direction A decisive drop below this level? That\u2019s when the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76011,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[52,51,1123,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-76010","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-ambcrypto","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-uk","12":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114454325329135053","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76010\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}