{"id":763866,"date":"2026-02-14T11:33:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-14T11:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/763866\/"},"modified":"2026-02-14T11:33:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-14T11:33:11","slug":"uk-migration-could-be-negative-this-year-how-will-that-hit-the-economy-immigration-and-asylum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/763866\/","title":{"rendered":"UK migration could be negative this year \u2013 how will that hit the economy? | Immigration and asylum"},"content":{"rendered":"

When Greenwich and Kent universities said this month they would merge to save money<\/a>, the heart of their financial difficulties could be found in the UK government\u2019s crackdown on immigration.<\/p>\n

Tough restrictions on foreign students have sent the number of university applications from abroad plummeting, cutting lucrative tuition fees<\/a> and leaving all universities facing the same squeeze.<\/p>\n

Companies are in a similar quandary: construction companies, health trusts and care homes are among those with recruitment worries, after new rules curtailed a longstanding reliance on foreign skilled workers.<\/p>\n

The latest official figures, released this week, documenting the number of visa applications to live and work in the UK showed a further slump in people successfully navigating the new rules.<\/p>\n

Only three years ago, annual net migration soared to almost 1 million<\/a>. This year the number of people entering the UK could fall to such an extent that it drops below the number moving in the opposite direction, sending the figure for net migration below zero for the first time since 1993<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Migration chart<\/a><\/p>\n

While the trend may ease pressure on Keir Starmer from Reform UK, for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, the trend presents a significant headache, hurting both the businesses that rely on immigrants and a loss of expected tax receipts for the Treasury.<\/p>\n

Last week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a thinktank, likened the effect to Brexit, saying that if net migration fell to zero, it would knock 3.7% off the UK\u2019s annual national income<\/a> by 2040. According to the Treasury\u2019s economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit has set the economy back by 4%.<\/p>\n

The political incentive<\/p>\n

Rob Ford, the professor of political science at Manchester University, says zero net migration would provide Starmer with the opportunity to steer the domestic political agenda away from the core topic of interest for Reform UK supporters. Reform leader Nigel Farage backed billionaire industrialist Jim Ratcliffe, who said immigrants were \u201ccolonising\u201d the UK. Ratcliffe later apologised<\/a>, after public pressure from Starmer.<\/p>\n

While most Britons\u2019 attitudes to migration vary little over time, Ford believes it will tumble down the list of voters\u2019 biggest concerns next year, as the downward trend feeds through into data and, eventually, public attitudes.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt means that significant numbers of voters could peel away from the parties that make immigration a key element of their platform,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

The data released this week<\/a> showed that the fall in skilled worker applications which began last July continued in January. The figures will soon be followed by more detailed data giving a breakdown of visa applications, and how many were granted, from October to December 2025.<\/p>\n

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will hope that net zero migration will steer domestic politics agenda away from Reform UK\u2019s main agenda. Photograph: Hannah McKay\/Reuters<\/p>\n

The expected downward trend will not reflect the government\u2019s success or failure at stopping small boats crossing the Channel<\/a>. Instead, the fall will largely follow a collapse in the number of immigrants entering the UK relative to the increasing number who are being denied a visa extension and must leave, many of them students.<\/p>\n

The route to zero net migration<\/p>\n

By the end of this year, the annual number of non-EU migrants entering the UK on visas could drop below 550,000 after reaching more than 1.1m in 2023, according to a report by a Warwick University data analyst, James Bowes. It argues this is the effect of a clampdown under the previous Conservative administration, and tighter rules brought in by Labour last year.<\/p>\n

If the flow out of the country by non-EU nationals also accelerates, as expected, the emigration numbers could hit 430,000 by the end of the year, up from 88,000 in 2021.<\/p>\n

With about 900,000 fewer immigrants this year than in 2023, it is possible that net migration of 860,000 in 2023 and 431,000 in 2024 could fall to 184,000 in 2025 and -60,000 this year.<\/p>\n

The extent of the turnaround in migration since 2023 is a matter of contention, largely because poor government data allows analysts to fill the gaps in information with their own estimates, but the broader trend is not in dispute.<\/p>\n

Arrivals by type chart<\/a><\/p>\n

In March 2024, care workers were banned from bringing spouses and children with them to the UK, while in April of the same year the salary threshold increased for work visas and family visas from \u00a320,480 to \u00a333,400, with an opt-out for some categories of worker set at \u00a325,000.<\/p>\n

Most foreign postgraduate students were also told to leave their families behind. The minimum salary for a skilled worker visa increased from \u00a326,200 to \u00a338,700,<\/p>\n

Madeleine Sumption, the head of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, says: \u201cIt\u2019s difficult to know exactly where we go next, mainly because we have a high number of people with temporary status and many of them might stay, or not.\u201d<\/p>\n

In March 2024, care workers were banned from bringing spouses and children with them to the UK. Photograph: MBI\/Alamy<\/p>\n

Before 2024, foreign students could finish their course and get a job with a salary that satisfied relatively low government thresholds to convert their student visa into a work visa.<\/p>\n

Many would pay the price of a one-year master\u2019s degree \u2013 which can be more than \u00a330,000<\/a> \u2013 to get a student visa and within 18 months would be working in a care home.<\/p>\n

A doubling of the salary thresholds makes it difficult to continue this route into work, says Bowes.<\/p>\n

Refugees immigration chart<\/a><\/p>\n

Last July, the qualification threshold for getting a skilled worker visa or health and care visa also increased. Starmer went further by stopping overseas recruitment of social care workers, shortening the list of jobs eligible for the visas and increasing application fees.<\/p>\n

Sumption says the sponsors used by government to verify work visa applications have also faced a stricter regime.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is an ongoing crackdown on dodgy sponsors who declare they have firms on their books with jobs for people when they don\u2019t exist. This is another measure restricting the number of successful visa applications,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

The Observatory estimates that net migration will fall temporarily to a little over 250,000 this year before rising to 340,000 by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe thing that gets lost in the debate is that the current situation is temporary and the fall that is undoubtedly taking place at the moment will be reversed later in the decade,\u201d says Sumption.<\/p>\n

The economic impact<\/p>\n

Jonathan Portes, an economics professor at King\u2019s College London, says the impact could be limited by the weak state of the economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe had large labour shortages during the pandemic but that is clearly not the case now,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Alan Manning, a professor at the London School of Economics<\/a>, says the \u201cfiscal impact\u201d may be limited, especially in the longer term, if most of those leaving are in lower-paid jobs and their dependents.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Portes says the draconian restrictions on migration are \u201can act of self-harm\u201d.<\/p>\n

Survey data and figures from HMRC documenting the pay that recent immigrants receive show they earn above average wages and generally have high skill levels in their field.<\/p>\n

Manning says: \u201cIf we further restricted work visas \u2013 which would have to be done to get to net zero longer term \u2013 then that would be reducing the number of high earners and there would be a hit to the public finances from that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jane Gratton, the deputy director of public policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, says recruiting from overseas was usually conducted as a last resort.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe recent fall in net migration has had a particular impact on sectors such as hospitality and healthcare,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n

The hospitality sector has been hit by the fall in net migration. Photograph: JohnnyGreig\/Getty Images\/iStockphoto<\/p>\n

She says BCC surveys show just 13% of member firms access the immigration system.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, it\u2019s vital that the immigration system works for those employers who need it to fill urgent vacancies. Currently, firms tell us it is too expensive, restrictive and difficult.\u201d<\/p>\n

The OBR said last year it expected net migration of 262,000 in the year to mid-2026. That compares with the 47,000 Bowes believes is more realistic.<\/p>\n

The 200,000 difference will translate into a shortfall of between \u00a36bn and \u00a38bn in the public finances, says Portes.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe UK has benefited hugely from decades when it was an open economy that absorbed people arriving to do jobs and fill gaps in the labour market. What the Conservative and Labour party policies have done is reverse that, which is nothing short of self-harm,\u201d Portes says.<\/p>\n

Germany embraces migrants<\/p>\n

Jean-Christophe Dumont, the head of the international migration division at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), says: \u201cThe UK Treasury has benefited from migrants, even when their use of all public goods and services are taken into account.\u201d<\/p>\n

OECD analysis shows immigrants working in the private sector have \u201cproved positive for wages\u201d though there are wide variations from one industry to another.<\/p>\n

Dumont contrasts the UK with Germany.<\/p>\n

The UK is moving towards what Portes describes as a \u201cguest-worker approach\u201d where immigrant workers have little chance of becoming permanent residents. Starmer has opened talks about increasing the number of EU citizens admitted to the UK under the youth mobility scheme<\/a>, but this will only marginally affect the migration figures.<\/p>\n

Germany is aware that it needs young people to from outside the country to supplement its ageing population. Photograph: Christian Mang\/Reuters<\/p>\n

Dumont says Germany is moving firmly in the opposite direction, aware that it needs young people from outside the country to supplement its ageing population. AfD voters disagree, but the mainstream parties are fairly united in arguing that Germany\u2019s survival depends on it, he says.<\/p>\n

For instance Germany, like Spain, Austria and Switzerland, have opened apprenticeships to foreign-born labour in addition to the steady stream of German school leavers. The UK has an effective ban.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople too often focus on the cost, but migrants contribute more on average than they cost,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

If forecasts for zero net migration come to pass, it will prove to be a boon for Starmer and a problem for Reeves, who will count the cost in hard cash.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When Greenwich and Kent universities said this month they would merge to save money, the heart of their…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":763867,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,748,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-763866","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-britain","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-european","13":"tag-european-union","14":"tag-great-britain","15":"tag-uk","16":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116068772206681721","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/763866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=763866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/763866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/763867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=763866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=763866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=763866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}