{"id":775150,"date":"2026-02-19T15:54:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T15:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/775150\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T15:54:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T15:54:16","slug":"orban-escalates-ukraine-row-ai-execution-video-shocks-hungarys-election-campaign-euobserver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/775150\/","title":{"rendered":"Orb\u00e1n escalates Ukraine row, AI execution video shocks Hungary\u2019s election campaign \u2013 EUobserver"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Our weekly Thursday digest offers a comprehensive guide to the most significant political developments of the week in Hungary. We accompany our readers along the historic road to the April 2026 election \u2013 a journey unlike anything seen in the region over the past decade-and-a-half.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>This week we examine:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The Hungarian\u2013Ukrainian dispute enters a new phase.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The sex-video blackmail saga continues.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Orb\u00e1n sees an Erste and Shell conspiracy behind Tisza.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Barely a quarter of Hungarians believe the war-scare narrative.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Poll of the week: smaller parties could shape the outcome.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Follow Hungary\u2019s road to the 2026 election \u2014\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/veronikamunk.substack.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">subscribe\u00a0<\/a>to Days Until the Hungarian Elections on Substack and get every edition straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<p>The Hungary\u2013Ukraine dispute enters a new phase<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine has interfered in Hungary\u2019s election. The opposition Tisza party is colluding with Kyiv to sever Hungary from Russian crude. These have become the central campaign messages of the ruling Fidesz party in recent days, after Russian oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline were halted.<\/p>\n<p>This is not an entirely new turn. <\/p>\n<p>Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has long been a mainstay of Fidesz campaigning. In recent weeks, billboards across Hungary have claimed that Tisza leader P\u00e9ter Magyar is throwing Hungarians\u2019 money into a \u201cgolden toilet\u201d alongside EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. <\/p>\n<p>Now Orb\u00e1n\u2019s camp has raised the stakes, arguing that a forced break from Russian oil will bring price rises and render the government\u2019s flagship utility price-caps unsustainable.<\/p>\n<p>Viktor Orb\u00e1n went furthest on the issue at a campaign rally in the city of Szombathely on 7 February, where he described Ukraine as a \u201chostile country\u201d for demanding that Hungary detach itself from Russian energy.<\/p>\n<p>The Hungarian government had already waged intense anti-Ukraine PR campaigns in 2025, primarily targeting <a href=\"https:\/\/euobserver.com\/203344\/a-fast-tracked-ukraine-eu-accession-by-2027-here-are-three-dilemmas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ukraine\u2019s EU accession<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On Thursday (19 February), pro-government media outlets carried reports suggesting that Ukraine had deliberately prepared for the shutdown of the Druzhba pipeline. Although deliveries were disrupted at the end of January due to a Russian attack, Fidesz-aligned portals \u2014 echoing government insinuations \u2014 claim Kyiv has no intention of repairing the pipeline. The pro-government news site Index reported that Tisza\u2019s leadership had been informed, via German intermediaries at last weekend\u2019s Munich Security Conference, that Druzhba would not be restarted.<\/p>\n<p>The current condition of the Druzhba pipeline cannot be independently verified. Gergely Guly\u00e1s, the minister heading the prime minister\u2019s office, said at the government press conference that Hungary\u2019s MOL refinery group possesses firm information indicating the pipeline could be restarted at any time. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed this publicly, stating instead that a pump station lacks electricity due to Russian strikes.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2400\" height=\"1600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20a03f3f-3fc6-45b4-8500-897f4d74004f-2400x1600.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203771\"  \/>Hungarian PM Viktor Orb\u00e1n and Ukrainian president Zelensky during a European Council in Brussels in June 2024 (<a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.consilium.europa.eu\/photos?keywords=orban%20Zelensky\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source: European Council<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>A trap for Fidesz<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The situation is potentially awkward for Fidesz. If Russian oil deliveries do not resume \u2014 and if Hungary begins receiving crude from alternative sources alongside shipments arriving via the Adriatic \u2014 it may become clear that breaking with Russian energy is not impossible after all. <\/p>\n<p>Orb\u00e1n\u2019s government must also ensure that no tangible price increases are felt during the campaign, as this would damage its prospects.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, the claim that abandoning Russian oil would immediately trigger dramatic price hikes does not withstand scrutiny. Fuel prices in neighbouring countries tell a different story: in Poland and the Czech Republic, which have fully detached from Russian energy, Natural 95 petrol is currently cheaper than in Hungary and Slovakia, according to European Commission data. As the outlet V\u00e1lasz Online has noted, oil prices are not central to Hungary\u2019s household utility cost regime, since the country does not generate significant heat or electricity from oil.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fico lends a hand<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Druzhba shutdown has once again <a href=\"https:\/\/euobserver.com\/203732\/eu-racing-to-agree-more-russia-sanctions-for-ukraine-invasion-anniversary\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aligned Budapest and Bratislava<\/a>. Slovak prime minister Robert Fico and Andrej Danko, leader of the Slovak National Party, have reinforced Orb\u00e1n\u2019s campaign claim that Ukraine interfered in Hungary\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<p>Danko devoted a separate social media video to the issue, arguing that Orb\u00e1n espouses the same values as Slovakia\u2019s government and is therefore attacked by Brussels. \u201cSocial media is awash with slogans such as \u2018dirty Fidesz\u2019,\u201d he says anxiously in the video. According to Danko, Zelensky is not an independent political actor, and Slovakia should sever ties with Kyiv. Alone within the Slovak governing coalition, Danko echoes the Hungarian government line that Ukraine has no place in either Nato or the EU.<\/p>\n<p>Sex-video blackmail saga continues<\/p>\n<p>Although no video featuring P\u00e9ter Magyar has yet been published on the website that has preoccupied Hungarian public life in recent weeks, the issue remains alive in the campaign. As we reported earlier, a photograph of a bed, published under the domain name radnaimark.hu \u2013 bearing the name of M\u00e1rk Radnai, vice-president of Tisza \u2014 appeared online more than a week ago.<\/p>\n<p>Magyar said last Thursday in a video that he had been in the room whose photograph appeared on the website. He also stated that after a Tisza party event, he and his former partner attended a house party at the flat, where there was alcohol and something that appeared to be drugs \u2014 though he says he did not touch the latter. Later, he slept with his partner in the room shown in the photograph. Magyar\u2019s explanatory video has since been viewed more than four million times and received around 190,000 likes. However, the photo taken of the bed has not yet appeared in a video.<\/p>\n<p>Days ago, a new message appeared on the site, quoting Magyar\u2019s words: \u201cThere was alcohol and a substance resembling drugs on the table. I did not touch what was on the table\u2026\u201d The anonymous authors add a single word, followed by a question mark: \u201cAre you sure?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Over the past week, Fidesz has adopted a strategy of portraying Magyar as unreliable and debauched \u2014 a man who frequents \u201cdrug parties\u201d and is therefore unfit to lead the country. Gergely Guly\u00e1s emphasised the phrase \u201cdrug party\u201d at Thursday\u2019s government press briefing. Despite the absence of any evidence that Magyar used drugs, Fidesz politicians and propagandists have chosen to overlook this detail.<\/p>\n<p>Orb\u00e1n sees Erste Bank and Shell conspiracy behind Tisza party<\/p>\n<p>Orb\u00e1n gave a speech on Saturday (14 February), and Magyar on Sunday (15 February). Both delivered what were billed as annual state-of-the-nation addresses, though in substance they were classic campaign speeches.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Orb\u00e1n on the \u201ctoll collectors of death\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Orb\u00e1n\u2019s main points were as follows:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Behind Tisza stand Shell and Erste Bank; according to Orb\u00e1n, Magyar\u2019s party was \u201cfounded by the Germans\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>Accusations of being \u201cPutinists\u201d are primitive and unserious; the real threat is Brussels, which seeks to drag Europe into war. Companies such as Shell and Erste are \u201ctoll collectors of death\u201d, profiting most from the conflict.<\/li>\n<li>Orb\u00e1n said only \u201chalf the job\u201d had been done in pushing back against civil society and media actors deemed to threaten sovereignty \u2014 work that would be completed after April. \u201cPseudo-civic organisations, bought journalists, courts, algorithms, bureaucrats, rolling euro-millions\u201d are among those he would settle accounts with after the election. The government had previously submitted a draft \u201ctransparency\u201d law to parliament that would have severely constrained independent media and civil society, but later withdrew it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The most striking new element was the attack on Shell and Erste. The choice is not accidental: Tisza\u2019s head of economic development and energy is Istv\u00e1n Kapit\u00e1ny, a former global executive vice-president at Shell; its fiscal and tax policy expert is Andr\u00e1s K\u00e1rm\u00e1n, former head of Erste\u2019s mortgage bank.<\/p>\n<p>The irony is that the Hungarian government signed a long-term gas contract with Shell in September 2025. At the time, foreign minister P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 said relations with Shell had \u201calways been based on trust, mutual respect, innovation and a long-term commitment to sustainable growth\u201d. Now the prime minister himself has called the company the tax collector of death, whose interest is to maintain war.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00e1rm\u00e1n himself served as a state secretary in Orb\u00e1n\u2019s government in 2010 and 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Magyar strikes a confident tone<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Magyar told supporters that Tisza stands \u201cat the gates of victory\u201d and needs only step through. He once again challenged Orb\u00e1n to a debate \u2014 an offer the prime minister has repeatedly declined, describing Magyar as \u201ca puppet of Brussels\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Magyar also referenced the sex-video affair. Anyone who wants Orb\u00e1n or Antal Rog\u00e1n \u2014 the minister overseeing the secret services \u2013 peering into their bedroom \u201cshould feel free to vote for Fidesz,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>On foreign policy, Magyar confirmed that Tisza would maintain several positions associated with Fidesz: opposing the EU migration pact, retaining the Hungarian-Serbian border fence and rejecting fast-tracked EU membership for Ukraine. Military conscription would not be reintroduced \u2014 a commitment he would enshrine in the constitution.<\/p>\n<p>Barely quarter of Hungarians believe the war-scare ploy<\/p>\n<p>One of Fidesz\u2019s central campaign claims is that a Tisza victory would drag Hungary into war. The same message was deployed four years ago against the then opposition, delivering Orb\u00e1n a two-thirds majority.<\/p>\n<p>A poll published on Thursday by the 21 Research Centre found that 23 percent of respondents agree that a Tisza victory would take Hungary into war. At first glance, this appears low, but the institute urges caution.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIs 23 percent of the total population and 58 percent of government voters a lot or a little? If we look at how many agree with Fidesz\u2019s core campaign message, it seems low. But if we consider the gravity and true meaning of the claim, it is very high,\u201d the analysis states.<\/p>\n<p>Some 53 percent reject the claim; a further 23 percent could not or would not answer. Among Fidesz voters, 58 percent agree and 15 percent disagree. Among Tisza voters, 97 percent reject it.<\/p>\n<p>A new AI video: \u2018Little girl, your father will be executed in war\u2019<\/p>\n<p>That Fidesz intends to escalate this theme is evident in a new AI-generated video posted on Thursday by the party\u2019s Budapest organisation. In the dramatic clip, a young girl asks her mother where her father is and when she will see him again. Through tears, the mother replies: soon. The next shot shows a blindfolded soldier executed at the front. \u201cFor now, this is only a nightmare, but Brussels is preparing to make it reality,\u201d reads the caption.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!7bDO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5aaf0ce5-a48a-44dd-bdbb-b116fffa7cf7_1920x1297.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5aaf0ce5-a48a-44dd-bdbb-b116fffa7cf7_1920.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a>Source: Fidesz<\/p>\n<p>Magyar responded in a statement, calling the video a \u201ctotal moral nadir\u201d. \u201cPlaying with children, executions and fear is not politics \u2014 it is soulless manipulation. Revolting, unforgivable and deeply outrageous,\u201d he wrote, demanding its removal.<\/p>\n<p>Asked about it at Thursday\u2019s briefing (19 February), Guly\u00e1s said he had not seen the video but added: \u201cSuch is the reality of war.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Poll of the week: smaller parties could shape outcome<\/p>\n<p>A survey published on Thursday by the Republikon Institute shows Tisza maintaining a stable lead, but suggests smaller parties could influence the final result.<\/p>\n<p>Among decided voters, Tisza leads Fidesz by eight percentage points: 47 percent to 39 percent. The far-right Mi Haz\u00e1nk would enter parliament with six percent, while the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog party would clear the threshold with five percent. The Democratic Coalition would fall short.<\/p>\n<p>Such a result would produce a complex scenario. Mi Haz\u00e1nk is regarded as a potential ally of Fidesz and could help secure a Fidesz-led government. The (joke party turning serious) Two-Tailed Dog party, like Tisza, supports a change of government, yet began life as a joke party, pursues a markedly different style of politics and has never before sat in parliament, making its behaviour in such circumstances difficult to predict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Our weekly Thursday digest offers a comprehensive guide to the most significant political developments of the week in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":775151,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[217083,2000,299,220440,226351,226348,226345,226343,226346,226349,220438,226344,226347,226350,220439,657],"class_list":{"0":"post-775150","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-typedefinedterm","9":"tag-eu","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-identifier29","12":"tag-identifier4139","13":"tag-identifier4278","14":"tag-identifier4355","15":"tag-nameelections","16":"tag-namehungary","17":"tag-namenewsletter","18":"tag-namerule-of-law","19":"tag-termcodeelections","20":"tag-termcodehungary","21":"tag-termcodenewsletter","22":"tag-termcoderule-of-law","23":"tag-ukraine"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116098110135774078","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/775150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=775150"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/775150\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/775151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=775150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=775150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=775150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}