{"id":785473,"date":"2026-02-24T08:57:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T08:57:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/785473\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T08:57:24","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T08:57:24","slug":"shane-dye-unpacks-hong-kong-rivalry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/785473\/","title":{"rendered":"Shane Dye unpacks Hong Kong rivalry"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Joao Moreira\u2019s temporary return to Hong Kong is good news for almost everybody. And then there is the renewal of his rivalry with Zac Purton.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Two of the best riders of their generation, back in the same room for 14 weeks. Both brilliant, but brilliantly different.<\/p>\n<p>The simplest way to describe their contrasting strengths and styles? Zac rides the race. Joao rides the horse.<\/p>\n<p>There are actually three layers to the comparison \u2013 the horse, the race, and the track \u2013 and how each of them handles those three things is what makes this rivalry so fascinating to watch.<\/p>\n<p>Joao\u2019s genius is the horse. He\u2019s about balance, rhythm, getting the horse onto the right leg, letting it flow and finding its stride. When he rides, horses relax underneath him, they travel and when he presses the button they try harder for him than for other jockeys.<\/p>\n<p>I watch every horse in every race and keep a record of \u2018bad rides\u2019 \u2013 every mistake, every wrong call, every time a jockey butchered a ride. In his first full season in Hong Kong, Joao made two errors in an entire year. Two. And both those horses he came out and won on them next start. That is nearly impossible to do.<\/p>\n<p>Zac rides the race. His mindset is typical of top Australian jockeys \u2013 and it\u2019s the way I always thought about riding. He\u2019s not just trying to get his horse to run its best. He\u2019s also trying to prevent the key dangers from getting their best run. If I\u2019m outside the leader at Sha Tin and the favourite is third on the fence, inside of me, one thought takes over immediately: don\u2019t let that horse out. Because I know if it gets a clear run at the right moment, it beats me. My job isn\u2019t to win the race at the 400, my job is to keep the favourite in a pocket. Zac thinks exactly like that.<\/p>\n<p>Joao, by contrast, might not even know what\u2019s sitting inside of him. He\u2019ll be entirely locked into how his horse is moving \u2013 is it balanced, is it on the right or wrong leg, or should it change its lead leg and lengthen? He isn\u2019t as interested in what other horses or jockeys are doing.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"654\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Rapper-Dragon-reduced-1024x654.jpg\" alt=\"Moreira and Rapper Dragon claim the 2017 Hong Kong Derby\" class=\"wp-image-9535\"  \/>JOAO MOREIRA, RAPPER DRAGON \/ Hong Kong Derby \/\/ Sha Tin \/\/\/ 2017 \/ Photo by HKJC<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1287\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Massive-Sovereign-55.jpg\" alt=\"Massive Sovereign and Zac Purton win Hong Kong Derby\" class=\"wp-image-9522\"  \/>MASSIVE SOVEREIGN, ZAC PURTON \/ Hong Kong Derby \/\/ Sha Tin \/\/\/ 2024 \/\/\/\/ Photo by HKJC<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s a third layer \u2013 the track \u2013 and that\u2019s where I think Zac holds a clear edge. Hong Kong has had more noticeable track bias this season than we\u2019ve seen in years. More meetings where you\u2019re watching and thinking, do I back leaders today or am I looking for backmarkers to bet on? And it can change mid-program as the surface dries or the track is rolled. The jockey who reads the bias quickest, and rides to it, can be worth lengths. That\u2019s Zac. And reading and riding the track is, if I\u2019m being direct, Joao\u2019s weakness.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Moreira\u2019s return is obviously a huge boost for Caspar Fownes \u2013 and because of it he has to now be favourite to win this season\u2019s championship. Joao is locked in as his stable rider from April 7 through to the end of the season, and the timing couldn\u2019t be better \u2013 Caspar is leading the trainers\u2019 title race and one or two extra winners could make the difference between winning or losing the championship. Joao coming in almost exclusively for the Fownes stable also means he isn\u2019t sweeping through the rest of the jockeys\u2019 room pinching the best rides every week. He adds quality without changing the whole dynamic.<\/p>\n<p>It matters too that Caspar hasn\u2019t combined regularly with Zac for more than five years, so having access to a rider of Joao\u2019s calibre can only benefit him. There is a massive gap between Zac and the rest right now \u2013 so Caspar gets a chance to compete on a more level playing field with the other contenders that can use Zac more regularly.<\/p>\n<p>And there\u2019s a smaller thing I like that could matter long after this 14-week stint is over. Caspar has apprentice Ellis Wong in the yard \u2013 a five-pound claimer who is riding with real confidence at the moment. Having one of the best jockeys ever do the job right alongside him every day \u2013 being able to watch, ask questions, understand what professionalism looks like on and off the track, that\u2019s priceless. The kind of education you can\u2019t buy. Wong will still get opportunities \u2013 Caspar has first call on that five pounds when he needs it.\u00a0For punters? The stronger the jockeys\u2019 room, the fewer mistakes you get. The only thing a punter really wants is a fair crack \u2013 don\u2019t get a bad ride, don\u2019t get a nightmare run, don\u2019t lose because someone has butchered it. Elite riders reduce that risk. More of them only helps.<\/p>\n<p>The timing of Moreira\u2019s stint sets up a fantastic finish to the trainers\u2019 championship this season.<\/p>\n<p>Ka Ying Rising v Romantic Warrior \u2013 A Mythical Match Race At A Mile<\/p>\n<p>After Ka Ying Rising\u2019s demolition job in Sunday\u2019s Group 1 Queen\u2019s Silver Jubilee Cup, somebody posed an interesting hypothetical: would he get a mile?<\/p>\n<p>Yes, on his ear. He\u2019s that relaxed, that controlled. You could probably teach him to run 2000 metres if you really wanted to, because that temperament is a genuine weapon. But here\u2019s the point \u2013 he doesn\u2019t need to. The moment you start dragging champions out of their comfort zone, you introduce a risk you don\u2019t have to carry. If you have a freak sprinter who can keep doing freak sprinter things, why go looking for trouble?<\/p>\n<p>The better hypothetical: match race, a mile at Sha Tin \u2013 Ka Ying Rising versus Romantic Warrior. Who do you want to ride?<\/p>\n<p>Ka Ying Rising would start favourite. How could he not after Sunday? Eighteen straight wins, the Sha Tin 1400m track record obliterated and he did it sitting second before simply breaking their hearts with that change of gears against a proper field.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Ka-Ying-Queens-Silver-HKJC-1024x682.jpg\" alt=\"Ka Ying Rising broke Silent Witness's record with an 18th straight win\" class=\"wp-image-34850\"  \/>KA YING RISING, ZAC PURTON \/ G1 Queen\u2019s Silver Jubilee Cup \/\/ Sha Tin \/\/\/ 2026 \/\/\/\/ Photo by HKJC<\/p>\n<p>But who would I ride? I\u2019d take Romantic Warrior.<\/p>\n<p>Not because I\u2019m saying he\u2019d win. I\u2019m choosing him because I want to be the hunter. I want the puzzle of figuring out how to beat a horse who might be the best in the world at what he does.<\/p>\n<p>So how would you go about it?<\/p>\n<p>First: you cannot give Ka Ying Rising a soft lead. If he gets to the 600 having done nothing, you\u2019re done. Romantic Warrior simply cannot match those sprint sectionals when it becomes a sit-and-sprint. You\u2019d be playing entirely on Ka Ying Rising\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n<p>So you have to turn it into a war. If I\u2019m on Romantic Warrior, I want pressure from the half-mile \u2013 earlier if possible. I want Ka Ying Rising working before he\u2019s ready to work. That means being on his outside, making him feel me there, making him think he isn\u2019t getting this his own way.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s a bit of old-school jockey craft in it too \u2013 done safely, done properly \u2013 where you can brush up alongside, touch a hindquarter, just enough to get him a fraction over-racing. Not dangerous, not reckless. Just enough to disturb that flawless rhythm. Because if he\u2019s travelling like he did on Sunday \u2013 sweet as you like, then bang \u2013 you\u2019re no chance.<\/p>\n<p>The chessboard changes depending on who leads, of course. Both horses have gate speed. If Romantic Warrior leads and Ka Ying Rising sits in behind like it\u2019s a trackwork gallop, you might be handing him the perfect stalking run. If Ka Ying Rising leads and you wait, you risk giving him exactly the soft, comfortable run he thrives on.<\/p>\n<p>What I do know is this: you don\u2019t beat Ka Ying Rising by sitting back. You beat him \u2013 if you beat him \u2013 by making it hard early, and hoping you can crack that rhythm that makes him so bombproof.<\/p>\n<p>I think Ka Ying Rising wins at a mile. But I\u2019d want to be on Romantic Warrior for the challenge of trying. \u220e<\/p>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/HayesDynasty-1-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Hayes family dynasty\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"feature-link-subtitle\">Adam Pengilly<\/p>\n<p class=\"feature-link-title\">House Of Hayes: Legacy, Loss And The Rebirth Of A Racing Dynasty<\/p>\n<p>          <a href=\"https:\/\/idolhorse.com\/horse-racing-news\/world\/house-of-hayes-legacy-loss-and-the-rebirth-of-a-racing-dynasty\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Joao Moreira\u2019s temporary return to Hong Kong is good news for almost everybody. And then there is the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":785474,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[4107],"tags":[228879,288,213703,101200,1071,101195,79,16,15,101198],"class_list":["post-785473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-racing","tag-caspar-fownes","tag-horse-racing","tag-joao-moreira","tag-ka-ying-rising","tag-racing","tag-romantic-warrior","tag-sports","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-zac-purton"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116124782094750614","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=785473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/785474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=785473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=785473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=785473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}