{"id":798712,"date":"2026-03-02T09:12:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T09:12:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/798712\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T09:12:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T09:12:21","slug":"a-look-at-ast-spacemobile-asts-valuation-after-new-u-s-space-development-agency-contract","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/798712\/","title":{"rendered":"A Look At AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Valuation After New U.S. Space Development Agency Contract"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Track your investments for FREE<\/a> with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.<\/p>\n

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares are in focus after the company signed a roughly US$30 million agreement with the U.S. Space Development Agency for the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program.<\/p>\n

See our latest analysis for AST SpaceMobile.<\/a><\/p>\n

The new SDA contract lands after a volatile stretch, with a 30 day share price return of a 28.79% decline contrasting with a 50.52% gain over 90 days and a very large 1 year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum has cooled recently after a powerful run.<\/p>\n

If this defense focused deal has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is shaping the sector through our list of 34 AI infrastructure stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With AST SpaceMobile trading only slightly below its average analyst price target, but showing a very large 1 year return and an indicated intrinsic discount, is there still a genuine opportunity here or are markets already pricing in future growth?<\/p>\n

According to the most followed narrative, AST SpaceMobile’s fair value sits at $0.28 per share, far below the last close at $79.19, which creates a sharp gap between the story and the current market price.<\/p>\n

\n

A high-risk\/high-reward potential, ASTS needs to meet all of the 2026 launch cadence\/commercial activation milestones in order for me to consider the full bull-case. The Story: AST Space Mobile is developing a space-based cellular broadband network which will allow phones to communicate via a network of satellites, and connect to a user’s carrier. This means that when a user loses cell tower coverage (ie when traveling), their smartphone can still connect through their carrier. If this works, AST will become a wholesale connectivity layer that carriers can add to their plans, thus turning dead-zones into viable, and profitable, areas of coverage.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Read the complete narrative.<\/a><\/p>\n

Want to see how this high-risk, high-upside setup gets priced at just cents per share? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue scaling, margin expansion and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for mature platform businesses.<\/p>\n

Result: Fair Value of $0.28 (OVERVALUED)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.<\/a><\/p>\n

However, this story can quickly change if launch timelines slip or regulatory approvals stall, which could affect funding options and weaken partner commitment.<\/p>\n

Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative.<\/a><\/p>\n

That user narrative pegs fair value at $0.28 per share with a very large implied overvaluation, but our DCF model lands in a completely different place. On that view, AST SpaceMobile at $79.19 trades about 24% below an estimated fair value of $104.03. So which story feels more realistic to you?<\/p>\n

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"ASTS<\/a> ASTS Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026 <\/p>\n

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AST SpaceMobile for example<\/a>). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist<\/a> or portfolio<\/a> and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 46 high quality undervalued stocks<\/a>. If you save a screener<\/a> we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.<\/p>\n

With such different signals in the story so far, it helps to move quickly, review the full data, and form your own view using 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If this story has you thinking more broadly about where to put your money next, do not stop here. Widen your search and compare a few fresh options.<\/p>\n

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.<\/strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.<\/p>\n

Companies discussed in this article include ASTS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch<\/a> with us directly.<\/strong> Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":798713,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3844],"tags":[72079,72080,24090,70,413,158828,16,15],"class_list":["post-798712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-space","tag-ast-spacemobile","tag-asts","tag-fair-value","tag-science","tag-space","tag-total-shareholder-return","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116158814391403717","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/798712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=798712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/798712\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/798713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=798712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=798712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=798712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}