{"id":802567,"date":"2026-03-04T03:20:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/802567\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T03:20:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:20:19","slug":"hong-kong-derby-picture-less-clear-after-classic-cup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/802567\/","title":{"rendered":"Hong Kong Derby picture less clear after Classic Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What the Epsom Derby is to English people, the Prix de l\u2019Arc de Triomphe is to the French, the Melbourne Cup to Australians and the Kentucky Derby to Americans \u2013 that is what the Hong Kong Derby means to Hong Kong owners.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the race. The one trophy every owner in Hong Kong wants above everything else.<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s why the Classic Cup matters. The second leg of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series is usually a decent guide to the Derby winner \u2013 not because the winner always wins the Derby, but because most years it leaves us with a clear favorite.<\/p>\n<p>This year? Not at all.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s start with the beaten favourite, Little Paradise.<\/p>\n<p>He missed the start by three lengths and then rushed up to make his position. That\u2019s where the race was lost. In the Classic Mile he did no work \u2013 he had an easy run, saved energy and when he got clear at the 200 metre mark he sprinted. It was the perfect shape for him. In the Classic Cup he burned petrol early in a genuinely fast-run race, and when it came time to quicken at the top of the straight, that energy was gone. He ran really well. He just couldn\u2019t reproduce the same turn of foot because he\u2019d already spent it.<\/p>\n<p>Can he still win the Derby? Absolutely. If he draws a gate, gets out cleanly and settles in fourth or fifth with cover, he\u2019s right in the race.<\/p>\n<p>Numbers was the second favourite and Derek Leung erred by leading. He got trapped into the habit of his last two wins, but there\u2019s a big difference between leading with 115 pounds in a weaker race and doing it on level terms in a Classic Cup with proper weight. When you\u2019re on 126 and the field is even, you can\u2019t spend your horse like that and get away with it \u2013 and he didn\u2019t get away with it. The encouraging thing is that Numbers is the one horse in this crop you can be confident will run a strong 2000 metres. He\u2019s bred for it, he\u2019s already done it and getting beaten this way can only help him because Derek now knows what he can\u2019t do.<\/p>\n<p>The runner-up Invincible Ibis ran well when ridden closer. That\u2019s worth noting. Give him another low gate in the Derby and he will be competitive.<\/p>\n<p>Third-placed Patch Of Cosmo also gave me some hope. He never wasted energy, kept coming through the straight and he\u2019s bred to run the trip. If he draws a good gate in the Derby he can run closer, and based on his runs this season, he will be right in it.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Classic-Cup-finish-HKJC-1024x667.jpg\" alt=\"Stormy Grove and Harry Bentley take out the Hong Kong Classic Cup at Sha Tin\" class=\"wp-image-35226\"  \/>STORMY GROVE, HARRY BENTLEY \/ Hong Kong Classic Cup \/\/ Sha Tin \/\/\/ 2026 \/\/\/\/ Photo by HKJC<\/p>\n<p>But the run of the race \u2013 the one nobody is talking about \u2013 was Dazzling Fit.<\/p>\n<p>He went probably the best race of his career. Wide, no favours in a fast run race, wasting energy and he battled on to be beaten about three lengths. Is he bred to stay the Derby distance? Not on paper. But if he draws a gate, gets tucked away and saves ground? He\u2019s going to be there somewhere. In a Derby this open, you can\u2019t dismiss him.<\/p>\n<p>Sagacious Life is the worry. The roaring issue emerged again, three weeks out from a 2000 metre Derby and that\u2019s a real problem.<\/p>\n<p>And the winner? Stormy Grove did nothing wrong. But he got a beautiful race set-up \u2013 no wasted energy, the race was ideally set up for him to show his best. He came out at the top of the straight full of petrol and hit the line. If it\u2019s a fast-run Derby it will suit him. You know how he will be ridden and the race he needs.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The three horses who didn\u2019t get every chance given the way the Classic Cup was run? Dazzling Fit, Numbers and Little Paradise.<\/p>\n<p>So what\u2019s my tip?<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not giving you one yet.<\/p>\n<p>This year, more than most, I want to see the barrier draw first \u2013 because that will decide the winner.<\/p>\n<p>Jerry Chau: The Rise Of Hong Kong Racing\u2019s Newest Local Hero<\/p>\n<p>Jerry Chau was a star apprentice. He broke the record for wins by an apprentice in Hong Kong \u2013 passing Matthew Chadwick\u2019s record for most wins in a season.<\/p>\n<p>Then he lost his way for a bit. Suspensions hurt him last season, momentum stalled, and in Hong Kong that can snowball quickly.<\/p>\n<p>This season, he\u2019s riding brilliantly.<\/p>\n<p>He missed the opening day of the season to go to Korea and he rode two outstanding races there \u2013 winning the Korea Sprint on Self Improvement and finishing second in the Korea Cup on Chancheng Glory. For a young jockey to go to another country, handle that pressure and deliver rides like that \u2013 it\u2019s a big deal. It takes confidence to do what he did. And he\u2019s brought it back with him.<\/p>\n<p>Technically, he\u2019s very well balanced on a horse. And crucially, he can ride a horse back in the field or put one in the race. That versatility matters in Hong Kong more than almost anywhere.<\/p>\n<p>His partnership with Lucky Sam Gor is a good example of what he can do. Before the Classic Cup he\u2019d ridden the horse three times for three wins, because he found the key to him \u2013 get him back, get him relaxed and let him hit the line. In the Classic Cup he was ridden too close in a fast-run race and didn\u2019t see out the 1800m. That\u2019s not the horse going bad. That\u2019s just what happens when the tactics don\u2019t fit the race.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Jerry-Chau-good-pic-1024x682.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35220\"  \/>JERRY CHAU \/ Photo by HKJC<\/p>\n<p>One small thing I notice in Hong Kong \u2013 and I won\u2019t overplay this \u2013 is the ratio of wins to seconds for a jockey. Hong Kong races are decided by very small margins. There often isn\u2019t much more than a head or a neck between winning and running second. So if a jockey has more wins than seconds, he is usually in form. Jerry has 28 wins and 27 seconds. In Hong Kong, that tells you something. There are only three full-time jockeys in Hong Kong riding at better than 10 per cent \u2013\u00a0the other two are Zac Purton and Hugh Bowman.<\/p>\n<p>But the biggest improvement is patience. He\u2019s learning that races don\u2019t have to be won at the 400 or 500. He\u2019s waiting more often now, keeping his horses balanced, letting them arrive at the right moment. Will that cost him a race every now and then? Yes. But long term, he will develop into a far better jockey riding the way he is now.<\/p>\n<p>Jerry Chau is currently fourth in the jockeys\u2019 championship after another three-timer on the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s great for Hong Kong racing when a local jockey does really well because the fans really get behind them. \u220e<\/p>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1880s-Hong-Kong-Derby-reduced-1024x735.jpg\" alt=\"1880s Hong Kong Derby reduced\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"feature-link-subtitle\">Hawk Eye View<\/p>\n<p class=\"feature-link-title\">The One Derby Change That Revolutionised Hong Kong Racing<\/p>\n<p>          <a href=\"https:\/\/idolhorse.com\/horse-racing-news\/hong-kong\/the-one-derby-change-that-revolutionised-hong-kong-racing\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Jerry-Chau-1024x576.png\" alt=\"Jerry Chau\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"feature-link-subtitle\">Jack Dawling<\/p>\n<p class=\"feature-link-title\">How Jerry Chau And Self Improvement Pulled Off The Unthinkable In South Korea<\/p>\n<p>          <a href=\"https:\/\/idolhorse.com\/horse-racing-news\/hong-kong\/how-jerry-chau-and-self-improvement-pulled-off-the-unthinkable-in-south-korea\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What the Epsom Derby is to English people, the Prix de l\u2019Arc de Triomphe is to the French,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":802568,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[4107],"tags":[210565,218930,209113,288,209114,232505,209115,228824,18730,218931,1071,209117,215653,79,232506,16,15],"class_list":["post-802567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-racing","tag-dazzling-fit","tag-hong-kong-classic-cup","tag-hong-kong-derby","tag-horse-racing","tag-invincible-ibis","tag-jerry-chau","tag-little-paradise","tag-lucky-sam-gor","tag-numbers","tag-patch-of-cosmo","tag-racing","tag-sagacious-life","tag-shane-dye","tag-sports","tag-stormy-grove","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116168755065163905","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=802567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802567\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/802568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=802567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=802567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=802567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}