![\"Headshot](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Patrick-Daly.jpg\")
<\/p>\nFarage\u2019s Reform UK party celebrated after gains during England\u2019s local elections. But the electoral system could stifle a national victory, says Northeastern experts.<\/p>\n
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Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, celebrated huge gains in England\u2019s local elections on May 1 (Press Association via AP Images)<\/p>\n
LONDON \u2014 It was a picture<\/a> that seemed to reflect a changing world order. The two men seen in it were beaming from ear to ear inside a glittering gold elevator in Trump Tower.\u00a0<\/p>\n They had both achieved their ultimate goal \u2014 Donald Trump, pictured with his thumb held up, had been elected to the White House for the first time, and the other suited individual, Nigel Farage, had successfully campaigned for the U.K. to leave the European Union.<\/p>\n That picture was from 2016. Nine years later those two figures are once again making headlines. Trump is serving his second term, and Farage, a staunch ally of the U.S. president, currently leads the most popular political party in the U.K.\u00a0<\/p>\n So could Farage be the next British prime minister?<\/p>\n Josephine Harmon<\/a>, an assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University in London, says reaching 10 Downing St. would be a tall order for Farage \u2014 even after recent electoral gains by his anti-migrant party, Reform UK.<\/p>\n After May 1 elections<\/a>, Farage\u2019s outfit is in power across England, having taken control of seven councils, two regional mayoral positions and beaten Prime Minister Keir Starmer\u2019s Labour Party in a parliamentary by-election by six votes<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n But Harmon says the U.K.\u2019s first-past-the-post voting system will make it difficult to translate this regional support into the national victory needed for Farage to be installed as prime minister. The system has traditionally led to the House of Commons, Britain\u2019s legislature, being dominated by two main parties, Labour and the Conservative Party.<\/p>\n U.K. general elections are made up of 650 smaller constituency contests in which the candidate with the most votes in each is declared the winner. The party that produces the most lawmakers from these contests is given the opportunity to form a government, led by the party leader. After the recent by-election in Runcorn, north-west England, Reform now has five seats in Parliament, including one held by Farage.<\/p>\n \u201cIt will be very hard for Reform to be a serious contender to form a government,\u201d states Harmon, \u201cas they have to gain a plurality of votes in constituencies. They have struggled to do this and are likely to continue to.\u201d<\/p>\n According to poll results produced by Politico<\/a> on April 25, Reform was the U.K.\u2019s most popular party, polling at 26%. It placed the upstarts ahead of the two traditionally largest parties, Labour and the Conservatives, which polled at 24% and 21%, respectively.<\/p>\n Reform\u2019s current polling numbers would be enough to be a \u201cplayer in the political arena,\u201d says Harmon, by possibly pushing Starmer\u2019s government to the right on immigration and silencing any talk of rejoining the European Union.\u00a0<\/p>\n But it \u201cisn\u2019t sufficient to be a contender for prime minister\u201d at the next election in 2029, Harmon believes, as Farage\u2019s party cannot yet make up the numbers in enough constituencies. Under the U.K.\u2019s winner-take-all voting system, Reform is \u201cmore likely to be a vote splitter than a plurality vote winner,\u201d she adds, pointing to how Reform ate into Tory and Labour majorities at last year\u2019s election but only took five seats (one MP was later suspended).<\/p>\n May\u2019s election upsets mean Farage\u2019s Reform party can be judged on how it delivers in the areas of the country where it is in power, with all the ups and downs that brings. Its leader has been on a long political road to get to this juncture.<\/p>\n Farage is the classic example of a charismatic populist leader, says Marianna Griffini<\/a>, assistant professor in international relations and anthropology at Northeastern. Formerly a commodities trader in London, it was his Euroscepticism \u2014 a belief that Britain was worse off as a member of the EU \u2014 that saw him enter into politics in the early 1990s.<\/p>\n He was a founding member of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and became leader 13 years later. Its steady growth in popularity \u2014 UKIP won the most number of European parliamentary seats at the 2014 election \u2014 pressured then-prime minister David Cameron into calling the 2016 Brexit referendum. Farage was on the winning side of that vote, delivering his life\u2019s mission of pulling Britain out of the EU in the process.<\/p>\n After quitting UKIP, the 61-year-old has since more than once dabbled with the idea of stepping back from frontline U.K. politics, having spent time in America supporting Trump during his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. At an Arizona rally in 2020, Farage called Trump the \u201cmost resilient and brave person\u201d he had ever met. And this was coming from a man who had survived a plane crash<\/a>.<\/p>\n He was cajoled back to Westminster politics to lead the Brexit Party, which later morphed into Reform. With Brexit done, his party has focused on issues such as immigration and pushing back against what its leaders dub \u201cwoke culture.\u201d<\/p>\n Griffini says Farage has looked to deploy \u201ccopycat\u201d policies<\/a> taken from Trump\u2019s playbook. After Reform took control of Durham County Council in north-east England at the May Day elections, Farage warned<\/a> council workers who advance diversity, equality and inclusion policies and those working from home that they should be \u201cseeking alternative careers very quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n His ability to make himself a mainstay of British politics has in part been due to a well-cultivated image, Griffini argues, that can appeal to a wide range of voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cHe believes that he\u2019s representing any British person \u2014 and I would say mainly any British male,\u201d adds Griffini. \u201cWhen I teach my students, I show them an image of Farage standing outside the pub holding a pint of beer and smoking. This is an everyday act that is part of the U.K. tradition \u2014 something we call an everyday act of nationalism. It may seem banal but it isn\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n Farage\u2019s 1.2 million followers<\/a> on TikTok have helped him connect with young voters. A 40-second TikTok clip from Farage\u2019s recent campaigning showed him searching for a new toy figurine<\/a> called \u201cFuture PM.\u201d As Harmon argues, turning that from fantasy to reality could prove difficult \u2014 unless something quite dramatic occurs.<\/p>\n