\nTogether Plaid and the Greens would have a decent majority. <\/strong>Together the Greens and Plaid would have 53 seats. This would be above the 49 threshold meaning that they wouldn\u2019t need Labour to pass legislation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\nThe Tories face near total wipeout<\/strong>. If this poll is true, the Welsh Conservatives will go from being the official opposition to just one seat. Based on the modelling by Cardiff Uni this would mean that the only seat they would win is in Clwyd. Darren Millar is top of that list.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\nThe demise of the Tories really hurts Reform.<\/strong> The challenge Reform will face is that no other party will work with them except for the Tories. However, if the entirety of the Welsh Tories is just Darren Millar, then Reform are 18 seats away from being able to form a government.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\nReform doesn\u2019t need to be in government to consider the election a success. <\/strong>If Reform gets a third of the voters in the Senedd it will be an enormous boost for the party in terms of resources heading the General Election. Each MS will have three or more staff funded by the taxpayer.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\nWales identity remains left of centre. <\/strong>Just a third of people in Wales are, under this poll, voting for parties on the right.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\nThe Greens are not growing at Plaid\u2019s expense. <\/strong>Commenting on the results Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University\u2019s Welsh Governance Centre said:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\u201cThe Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru\u2019s expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters. The results also point clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n\u201cFor the Liberal Democrats, even without significant losses among their existing Welsh voters, a marginally stronger Labour showing combined with a solid Green performance effectively raises the threshold of votes required to win a seat in any constituency across Wales.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Each of Wales\u2019 super constituencies will have six Senedd Members. Cardiff Uni\u2019s analysis has projected that this is how each area would break down under this polling:<\/p>\n
\n- \n
Afan Ogwr Rhondda – <\/strong>Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Bangor Conwy M\u00f4n – <\/strong>Plaid 4, Reform 2,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni<\/strong> – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd <\/strong>– Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf <\/strong>– Plaid 3, Reform 1, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Caerdydd Penarth<\/strong> – Plaid 3, Reform 1, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Casnewydd Islwyn<\/strong> – Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Ceredigion Penfro<\/strong> – Plaid 3, Reform 2, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Clwyd – <\/strong>Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Fflint Wrecsam –<\/strong> Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Gwynedd Maldwyn <\/strong>– Plaid 3, Reform 2, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
G\u0175yr Abertawe <\/strong>– Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg <\/strong>– Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr –<\/strong> Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Sir Fynwy Torfaen – <\/strong>Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Sir Gaerfyrddin –<\/strong> Plaid 4, Reform 2<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nIt\u2019s worth noting that there is no part of Wales where Reform has more seats in an area than Plaid Cymru. Though Labour\u2019s vote share has increased on previous polling, Eluned Morgan\u2019s party would not elect anyone in four constituencies including her own in Ceredigion Penfro.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s all for today. We will be back with you tomorrow for the midweek newsletter. We will also be doing more detailed analysis of these results over the next week.<\/p>\n
Take care<\/p>\n
Will<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Throstle Worde Media ltd.<\/strong>Throstle Worde Media ltd. Severn House, Hazell Drive, Newport, South Wales, Newport, NP10 8FY. Company No. 15984234<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bonus newsletter! A new poll has just dropped for Wales and it is fascinating. First Minister Eluned Morgan…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":847684,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5010],"tags":[748,4884,16,15,1764],"class_list":{"0":"post-847683","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-wales","8":"tag-britain","9":"tag-great-britain","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-wales"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116285701556649816","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=847683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847683\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/847684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=847683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=847683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=847683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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