Once more with feeling, eh. It\u2019s time, yet again, to pull on those big girl and boy pants and face into our latest big global crisis. It is a tall order. While watching a live broadcast this week of the inquiry into how we handled Covid, the realisation dawned that we\u2019ve not yet even fully dealt with the international crisis before last, and we\u2019re knee-deep in a new one.<\/p>\n
That was the global pandemic that began six years ago, and last Tuesday the panel assessing Ireland\u2019s response to Covid-19 held a round-table discussion of experts. Impossible to watch, I\u2019d wager, without experiencing a strong element of PTSD; being brought back to that frightening time. In the intervening period since then we\u2019ve also had the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and all the fall-out that entails. Now we\u2019re in the middle of something new. Not to forget, in between times, the utter horror of the Israeli war on Gaza. Oh and before all that, Brexit.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Clearly what\u2019s happening to the rest of us right now is not even vaguely in the galaxy of the suffering of the populations directly affected by the bombs and missiles. But it\u2019s another new reality, as we find ourselves once again assuming the brace position.<\/p>\n
Unlike in the first few weeks the experts are no longer saying that things might just be all right economically if the hostilities in Iran cease soon.\u00a0We\u2019re facing inflationary and supply shocks. The hikes in food prices, flights cancelled, possible drug shortages, lack of fertiliser affecting food security and manufacturing being disabled. Not to mention those price rises at the petrol pumps<\/a>. In the longer term it is the fall-out from the Iranians effectively operating a toll booth approach in the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0<\/p>\n For any government there is a thin line between not causing people to panic, yet preparing a population for what\u2019s around the corner as a result of a global fossil fuel shock. Be in no doubt that behind the scenes there is a strong sense of d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu as the system prepares for what is set to be a very tough winter. We will hear talk of protecting the vulnerable and how everyone will need to play their part.<\/p>\n No amount of putting your head in the sand can take from the fact that we are, as Simon Harris, the tanaiste and minister for finance, put it \u201cliving through the largest energy crisis in the history of the world, bigger than the last three combined\u201d.<\/p>\n Last Thursday Miche\u00e1l Martin, the taoiseach, gave a radio interview on Newstalk. There was a strong sense of \u201ckeep calm and carry on\u201d in his message. But you didn\u2019t need to read too closely between the lines. He spoke of us being \u201con the precipice of the most severe kind\u201d if the war continues. Fuel rationing was not being considered \u201cat this stage\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n He spoke of supply shocks leading to inflation. All the products that are derived from oil: fertiliser, plastics, helium for semiconductors. Jet fuel shortages. \u201cYou name it there are a whole range of secondary effects that will affect key sectors of the economy,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cAfter the last six or seven years we have had one shock after the other \u2014 Brexit, Covid, the Russian invasion of Ukraine \u2026 tariffs coming from the US. Now this, and cumulatively this will have impact.\u201d<\/p>\n His comments come as the\u00a0final tankers bearing fossil fuel as cargo arrive in Europe from the war-torn area. The realities were really sinking in for European governments this week,\u00a0especially the energy situation to be faced next winter. At the consumer level\u00a0it ranged from the threat\u00a0to sun\u00a0holidays, to heating your home next winter.<\/p>\n