A two-week truce was announced last night just moments before a new round of US strikes was expected, with US president Trump proclaiming a \u201cCOMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING\u201d on his social media platform Truth.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But Tehran\u2019s own wording suggests something more conditional.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran\u2019s armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,\u201d said Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on X.<\/p>\n
\u2018Tehran\u2019s tollbooth\u2019<\/p>\n
Since the effective closure of the strait in early March, Iran has demanded from the vessels that made the crossing to pay a \u201ctoll,\u201d of at least $1 [\u20ac0.85], paid in Chinese Yuan or cryptocurrency \u2014 a system which in the shipping world has become known<\/a> as \u201cTehran\u2019s tollbooth.\u201d<\/p>\n Rather than restoring free passage through the region, Iran could maintain its informal system, with Gulf states bearing roughly 85 percent of the costs, according to Bruegel calculations published<\/a> Wednesday. <\/p>\n While Europe is less dependent on oil and gas coming from the gulf than Asia, 40 percent of refined products such as jet fuel and diesel pass through the strait.\u00a0<\/p>\n Globally, the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil and liquified gas. In February, 15 million barrels passed the strategic waterway daily. By March, that number had dwindled to two million barrels.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a very, very important chokepoint,\u201d said Itkonen.\u00a0<\/p>\n Shipping giants remain cautious\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Benchmark oil prices fell on the news of the ceasefire, but shipping activity has yet to resume, with several major operators waiting for clearer security assurances before resuming routes.<\/p>\n Shipping giant Maersk<\/a> said the agreement does not yet provide \u201cfull maritime certainty.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAt this point, \u200bwe take a cautious approach, and we are not making any \u2060changes to specific services,\u201d the Danish shipping group told newswire Reuters.\u00a0<\/p>\n Rolf Habben, CEO of German container carrier Hapag-Lloyd<\/a>,\u00a0 warned that global shipping networks could take up to two months to normalise even if the ceasefire holds.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cEven if a ceasefire has now been agreed, I would say that it\u2019s fair to say that the conflict in the Middle East is still \u200bseverely disrupting shipping,\u201d he said in a call to customers on Wednesday, adding that limited crossings \u201cto selected markets would likely resume fairly soon.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Live satellite imagery shows that at the time of writing few vessels attempted to make the crossing.\u00a0<\/p>\n Disruption could last \u2018years\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n In a sign of the fragility of the deal, Israel said it would continue its assault on Lebanon after the ceasefire was announced, despite Pakistan\u2019s prime minister having previously said that the agreed ceasefire covered \u201ceverywhere including Lebanon\u201d.<\/p>\n Kuwait United and the United Arab Emirates, two US-allied countries, said Wednesday morning they were targeted by Iranian drones, a message later confirmed by Tehran.<\/p>\n \u201cLet us be clear. A ceasefire is a pause, and the joint force remains ready, if ordered or called upon, to resume combat operations,\u201d said Dan Caine, the US\u2019s highest military official, on Wednesday.<\/p>\n Even if the ceasefire holds, global energy supply disruptions are likely to persist for years.\u00a0<\/p>\n Qatar accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, and its energy minister Saad al-Kaabi has said<\/a> Iranian strikes damaged liquid gas facilities, enough to sideline 17 percent of the country\u2019s export capacity for up to five years.<\/p>\n Pakistan\u2019s prime minister has invited delegations from Iran and the US to Islamabad for talks on Friday. Trump\u2019s special envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and vice-president JD Vance, currently in Hungary, are all expected to attend.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Captura-de-Pantalla-2026-04-08-a-las-11.55.14-600x364.png\")
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<\/a>Stalemate at the chokepoint (Source: Marinetraffic.com)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Operation-Roaring-Lion-0065-600x400.jpg\")
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