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\t\tThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets at the end of the month\t<\/p>\n\t\t\tFriday 17 April 2026 8:29 am\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\tThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets at the end of the month\t<\/p>\n
Policymakers at the Bank of England will set a \u2018high bar\u2019 for making any interest rate change later this month despite growing expectations of rising inflation, top City analyst Simon French has said.<\/p>\n
The previous energy shock<\/a> suffered by the UK following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw inflation spike to as high as 11 per cent. Following the outbreak of war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, oil prices have rocketed, with the latest polling of market expectations from YouGov\/Citi showing analysts believe inflation could rise to as high as 5.4 per cent this year.<\/p>\n But Panmure chief economist<\/a> French warned against assuming that the same pattern of 2022\u2019s shock would repeat itself in 2026.<\/p>\n \u201cAlready scarred by the 2022 experience it is possible that economic agents quickly decouple price expectations having \u2018seen this movie before\u2019\u201d, French said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe would caution however that the shock of fast-moving events must call into question the ability of respondents to accurately process what is to come.<\/p>\n \u201cAmidst the current flux we believe the [Bank of England] will, later this month, set a relatively high bar for a UK interest rate policy move in either direction.\u201d<\/p>\n Tighter government spending and softer demand could dampen energy blow<\/p>\n