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\t\tHuw Pill is expected by some to vote for a hike to interest rates.\t<\/p>\n\t\t\tMonday 27 April 2026 12:28 pm\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\tHuw Pill is expected by some to vote for a hike to interest rates.\t<\/p>\n
Economists have suggested that at least two members of the Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee members could vote for interest rates to be hiked later this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Analysts at JP Morgan, BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs have predicted that hawkish policymakers will push back against leaving interest rates unchanged<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Bank\u2019s chief economist Huw Pill is expected to lead calls for interest rates to become more restrictive, according to the top banks, with the overall balance expected to be 7-2 in favour of leaving interest rates unchanged.\u00a0<\/p>\n Pill has repeatedly warned that interest rates have been cut too quickly in the last two years from a peak of 5.25 per cent in mid-2023.<\/p>\n Inflation<\/a> only briefly returned to the target rate of two per cent in mid-2024 as the transition between the Tory and Labour governments took place.\u00a0<\/p>\n It then ramped up to a high of 3.8 per cent months after as firms passed on some of the costs of Rachel Reeves\u2019 \u00a325bn hike to employers\u2019 national insurance contributions onto consumers.\u00a0<\/p>\n Pill used a speech<\/a> last year to argue that the Bank should have been more \u201ccautious\u201d in its approach to rate-cutting as inflation expectations among households and businesses had become anchored after Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, thereby influencing wage and price-setting behaviours.\u00a0<\/p>\n Over 37 meetings, Pill has voted to increase rates 14 times and only backed reductions twice. His voting record is in stark contrast to the MPC member Swati Dhingra, who has voted to cut interest rates in 17 of 29 meetings.\u00a0<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\tRead more<\/p>\n \t\t\t\u2018Outlook uncertainty\u2019: Interest rates to be left unchanged in crunch decision<\/a><\/p>\n Economists have suggested that Pill would argue that the energy price shock from the Iran war could trigger another spiralling in inflation, with both the OECD and the IMF<\/a> suggesting the UK economy would suffer from higher price growth than the average across G7 nations.\u00a0<\/p>\n Pill said recently that monetary policy could be used to \u201ccontain\u201d an expected spike in inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n Hawks to leave mark on interest rates call<\/p>\n Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have said that Pill is likely to be joined by external member Megan Greene in voting to hike interest rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n BNP Paribas said Catherine Mann, who has frequently surprised economists with her votes, would support a hike to interest rates while Greene would back a hold.\u00a0<\/p>\n Research by Deutsche Bank has meanwhile found that divisions in the MPC have been \u201chistorically high\u201d in the volatile years since the pandemic. Its base scenario is that Pill is the lone hawk while other members vote for interest rates to be held.\u00a0<\/p>\n Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja also mooted the possibility of one member backing a 25 basis point rate cut due to \u201cpotential non-linear shocks to the labour market and growth\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe word of the day, we think, will be \u2018risk\u2019,\u201d Raja said. \u201cIndeed, with the UK dealing with the unfolding repercussions of the Iran conflict, \u2018risk\u2019 remains rife.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\tRead more<\/p>\n