Ironically, SpaceX\u2019s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket might beat Starship to the Moon. Instead of gracefully landing on the lunar surface, though, a Falcon 9 rocket may soon smash into the Moon\u2019s Einstein crater at seven times the speed of sound.<\/p>\n
That is according to Bill Gray, an astronomer who created an object-tracking software called Project Pluto. Using his software, Gray predicts that a Falcon 9 rocket, stuck in a highly elliptical orbit since last year, will likely crash on the Moon this summer.<\/p>\n
Falcon 9 upper stage headed for Mach 7 lunar impact<\/p>\n
Just over a year ago, in January 2025, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket<\/a> launched two commercial lunar landers\u2014Firefly Aerospace\u2019s Blue Ghost and ispace\u2019s Resilience\u2014on their way to the Moon.<\/p>\n The Falcon 9\u2019s 45-foot-tall (13.8 meters) upper stage was meant to return to Earth. Unfortunately, it was instead trapped in a highly elliptical orbit around our planet. <\/p>\n Using his Project Pluto software, Gray analyzed the upper stage\u2019s orbit to predict its trajectory. According to the researcher, the Falcon 9 upper stage will crash on the lunar surface at 2:44 a.m. ET on August 5. It won\u2019t be a soft landing\u2014the rocket will smash into the Moon at a hypersonic speed of 5,400 miles per hour (8,700 kilometers per hour). That\u2019s seven times the speed of sound, or Mach 7.<\/p>\n According to Gray, astronomers have made over 1,000 observations of the Falcon 9 upper stage as it\u2019s soared around Earth. These helped to chart the rocket\u2019s lopsided, roughly 26-day orbit. At its closest point to Earth, the upper stage comes within 137,000 miles (220,000 km) of us. At its farthest point, it\u2019s roughly 310,000 miles (510,000 km) away in cislunar space.<\/p>\n \u201cThe orbit of the Moon and of this object, roughly speaking, intersect,\u201d Gray wrote. \u201cUsually, one goes through the intersection point while the other is someplace else. But on August 5, they\u2019ll reach that point at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n Falcon 9 impact highlights space junk \u2018carelessness\u2019<\/p>\n The Falcon 9 impact \u201cmay be of some (probably minor) scientific interest, and we may learn some things from it,\u201d Gray wrote on his Project Pluto website<\/a>. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t present any danger to anyone, though it does highlight a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of.\u201d<\/p>\n This is the second time the astronomer has identified a human-made object on a lunar impact trajectory\u2014the first was China\u2019s Chang\u2019e-5 T1 upper stage, which flew into the Moon in March 2022.<\/p>\n Based on his analysis, Gray predicts the Falcon 9 upper stage will crash into or near the Einstein crater, on the Moon\u2019s near side. However, he noted that he will have a more precise prediction closer to the impact date.<\/p>\n \u201cBy the time August 5 comes around, we will have a\u00a0very\u00a0exact idea of where and when the impact will occur, probably within a few dozen meters and a fraction of a second,\u201d he explained. \u201cWe will be collecting data almost right up to the time of impact.\u201d<\/p>\n According to Gray, the impact won\u2019t be visible using telescopes on the ground. However, the high-velocity crash will leave a small crater. \u201cThe odds are good that the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be able to image the crater,\u201d the astronomer noted.<\/p>\n SpaceX\u2019s mission control probably didn\u2019t have it on their bingo card that a Falcon 9 upper stage would reach the Moon before Starship. The company\u2019s Starship lunar lander team is racing to fulfill its NASA obligations. The world\u2019s most powerful rocket is behind schedule, meaning the space agency could look to Jeff Bezos\u2019 Blue Origin<\/a> to provide a lunar lander for Artemis IV\u2014allowing it to stick to its schedule for a lunar landing in 2028.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ironically, SpaceX\u2019s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket might beat Starship to the Moon. 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