{"id":93388,"date":"2025-05-11T18:43:14","date_gmt":"2025-05-11T18:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/93388\/"},"modified":"2025-05-11T18:43:14","modified_gmt":"2025-05-11T18:43:14","slug":"final-thoughts-steel-market-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/93388\/","title":{"rendered":"Final Thoughts – Steel Market Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

For those who don\u2019t know, we have a monthly scrap survey. It\u2019s very similar to our industry-leading flat-rolled steel survey. We cover market trends, pricing, and sentiment \u2013 which helps us keep our finger on the pulse of the scrap market.<\/p>\n

One thing we\u2019ve learned lately from our surveys here at SMU: The lack of clarity from Trump\u2019s tariffs are leaving the market in flux.<\/p>\n

One survey respondent said it this way, and it\u2019s a sentiment shared by others.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cUncertain who is paying the tariff \u2013 the shipper or the consumer \u2013 or if it will be enforced.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This sentiment is felt across the steel supply chain \u2013 from raw materials and finished steel to fabricators and manufacturers. And yet there\u2019s also a collective feeling that the market will improve once the tariff storm clouds clear.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how another survey participant put it:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cMills will continue to find ways to minimize the impact over time. But until bilateral deals are made and\/or exemptions are made, tariffs will have an impact.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

We\u2019re seeing it play out in real time.<\/p>\n

Tariffs or the implications of tariffs have produced a whiplash of sorts. Buying ahead of the tariffs drove prices higher through Q1. Buyers then moved to the sidelines, waiting to see where the proverbial dust would settle. We\u2019ve seen this play out in finished steel, and similar dynamics have been at play in scrap and metallics.<\/p>\n

Survey says<\/p>\n

Respondents got it mostly right this month. (We received responses before May prices settled.) Roughly three-fourths of respondents thought May prime scrap tags would be down. Another 23% said sideways. Almost no one thought prices would rise.<\/p>\n

But while most got the direction right, few expected prices to move as low as they did.<\/p>\n

The future doesn\u2019t look all that bright either, according to survey responses. The trade is mostly calling it sideways for June. But some think next month could be down again.<\/p>\n

Anyway, enough from me. Let\u2019s let the slides and the comments from survey participants do the talking.<\/p>\n

The impact of Trump\u2019s tariff policies<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s just some of what survey respondents had to say:<\/p>\n

\u201cImpact on finished steel products; no impact on scrap.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cDestroying motivation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cToo much uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSupported steel production, but scrap is pouring into the US.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cNegative currently, but waiting for a swing.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cNegative to unclear.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSo far, negative, but in full support of his efforts. It\u2019s time to rebalance our relations with other countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cToo soon to tell.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cShort-term will be negative. Long term is still to be determined.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTariffs for imports of scrap are hurting us.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have cut our sales forecast by 25% due to tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHurt export. Too much uncertainty in the marketplace.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe tariffs are driving uncertainty and causing customers to look short-term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prime vs. pig iron and DRI in light of tariffs<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is what some survey respondents had to say about the impact of tariffs on metallics:<\/p>\n

\u201cWill raise price of low-residual scrap.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is not much prime scrap available.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTariffs will keep prime closer to even.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCurrently, no effect. If pig Iron does not get on the exempt list, then the price of prime will go up to stabilize the pig-to-prime gap.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMath and economics.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s their only alternative.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPig iron costs will rise, which will affect overall market pricing.\u201d<\/p>\n

There you have it. And that\u2019s just two survey questions out of the dozens we explore. Our premium-level subscribers can find the full scrap survey results\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If this has piqued your interest, and you\u2019re not a premium member yet, what are you waiting for? To upgrade from executive to premium, please contact SMU sales executive Luis Corona at\u00a0luis.corona@crugroup.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Also, be on the lookout for April\u2019s service center inventories later this week. (We post service center inventories around the 15th of each month for the prior month.) Also, results from our next steel market survey will be released next week.<\/p>\n

Chances are, we\u2019ll see a great deal of insightful data. We can\u2019t wait to dig through it. We hope you find value in it too. And, as always, we appreciate all your support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For those who don\u2019t know, we have a monthly scrap survey. It\u2019s very similar to our industry-leading flat-rolled…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93389,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,44027,2441,44028,44029,479,1201,1757,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-93388","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-final-thoughts","10":"tag-markets","11":"tag-pig-iron","12":"tag-prime-scrap","13":"tag-tariffs","14":"tag-trade","15":"tag-trump","16":"tag-uk","17":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114490677918680394","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}