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<\/p>\nThe final Senedd intention voting poll before the election has been released<\/p>\n
18:09, 05 May 2026Updated 18:16, 05 May 2026<\/p>\n
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The Senedd Election takes place on Thursday, May 7<\/p>\n
The final YouGov poll of this Senedd Election campaign has been released. It shows Plaid Cymru<\/a> has jumped ahead of its nearest rivals Reform UK. The poll, for ITV<\/a> Cymru Wales, show Rhun ap Iorwerth\u2019s party with 33% of the vote share, ahead of Reform UK at 29%.<\/p>\n Cardiff University<\/a> has suggested that would mean Plaid Cymru would win 43 seats and Reform would take 34. Once again, Labour<\/a> is in a distant third and Eluned Morgan, the current First Minister, is again projected to lose her seat.<\/p>\n The Welsh Conservatives have seen a modest increase in their vote share at 9% placing them in fourth which would translate into four seats while the Green Party has dropped into fifth place at 8% which, in this round of results, would only net them two seats in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf and Caerdydd Penarth<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, that would be their first ever Senedd representation.<\/p>\n Lib Dem leader Jane Dodds would also secure a return to the Senedd, according to this poll.<\/p>\n The election takes place on Thursday, May 7, and will see 96 politicians elected to the Welsh Parliament. This election there are huge,and important changes are coming into force. <\/a>There will be new constituencies and a new voting system.<\/p>\n Instead of electing one politician for each constituency, six will be elected from each of the 16 new constituencies via a form of proportional representation. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here<\/a>.<\/p>\n This poll saw 1,125 adults asked questions between April 27 and May 4, 2026.<\/p>\n The poll also found people in Wales would prefer the next government to be formed by a single party (44%) instead of a coalition of multiple parties (32%). When asked \u201cIf you had to say, what is the single biggest factor influencing your vote in the upcoming Senedd election?\u201d the most popular answers were \u201cStopping Reform\u201d and \u201cImmigration\u201d.<\/p>\n When looking at Westminster voting intentions, Plaid Cymru continues to lead with an increase in support for them and Reform, whilst support has lowered for the Greens and Labour.<\/p>\n The projected support for each party is as follows:<\/strong><\/p>\n Analysis from Cardiff University suggests that could mean the following seats for each party:<\/strong><\/p>\n Which means the Senedd could look like this:<\/strong><\/p>\n In terms of which parties would get each of the six seats in each constituency, the following modelling by Dr Larner explains:<\/p>\n Afan Ogwr Rhondda:<\/strong> Reform 3, Plaid 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n Bangor Conwy M\u00f4n:<\/strong> Plaid 4, Reform 2,<\/p>\n Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: <\/strong>Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: <\/strong>Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1<\/p>\n Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf:<\/strong> Plaid 3, Reform 1 , Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n Caerdydd Penarth:<\/strong> Plaid 3, Reform 1, Lab 1, Green 1<\/p>\n Casnewydd Islwyn:<\/strong> Reform 3, Plaid 2 , Lab 1<\/p>\n Ceredigion Penfro:<\/strong> Plaid 4, Reform 2<\/p>\n Clwyd:<\/strong> Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1<\/p>\n Fflint Wrecsam:<\/strong> Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1<\/p>\n Gwynedd Maldwyn:<\/strong> Plaid 4, Reform 2<\/p>\n G\u0175yr Abertawe:<\/strong> Plaid 3, Reform 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg<\/strong>: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1<\/p>\n Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: <\/strong>Reform 3, Plaid 2, Lab 1<\/p>\n Sir Fynwy Torfaen:<\/strong> Plaid 2, Reform 2, Lab 1, Con 1<\/p>\n Sir Gaerfyrddin:<\/strong> Plaid 3, Reform 3<\/p>\n Labour’s decline:<\/p>\n This chart shows how much Labour’s support has declined, using YouGov polling for more than 12 years.<\/p>\n While voting takes place on Thursday, May 7, the count takes place the following day, during the daytime.<\/p>\n\n
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