These are the least predictable local elections the capital has seen for a long time, but here goes…<\/p>\n
I had decided not to make predictions \u2013 certainly not in public \u2013 about the outcomes of this year\u2019s votes in the capital\u2019s 32 boroughs.\u00a0Lewis Baston and I, as we embarked on compiling our epic guide to the elections, London Decides<\/a>, made a decision ourselves. It was that we would not make predictions, because doing so would only end in tears. We have instead concluded each borough profile with a section called What To Watch For, which sets out a balance of probabilities and identified factors on which results will hinge.<\/p>\n And so, here I am, on borough elections day, making a full set of predictions. Well, sort of.<\/p>\n I should make clear that these are my predictions, half-predictions and cries for help (see headline) and mine alone. Though obviously informed by the wisdom of Lewis, which is far greater than mine<\/a>, they are entirely my work in all their rash, self-harming foolishness. But, in the end, feeling a bit light-headed after several weeks of very intensive work, the temptation was too much. Who knows, perhaps as many as half of them will turn out to be right.<\/p>\n SECTION ONE: VERY CONFIDENT<\/strong><\/p>\n In the case of six boroughs, I am very confident about what will happen. I am completely sure that the Liberal Democrats will retain control of Richmond upon Thames<\/strong> and Kingston upon Thames<\/strong> and almost completely sure they will do the same in Sutton<\/strong>, with the right wing vote there splitting to their advantage. I am very confident that the Conservatives will, as always, win Kensington & Chelsea<\/strong> and also Harrow<\/strong>, even though it is a borough that can surprise. Finally, in a year where we could see around a dozen boroughs ending up under No Overall Control (NoC), I am certain that Redbridge<\/strong> will be one of them.<\/p>\n SECTION TWO: PRETTY CONFIDENT\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Labour is on course for heavy losses. I am, though, pretty confident that the party will secure majorities, if reduced, in Hammersmith & Fulham<\/strong>, Ealing<\/strong>, Hounslow<\/strong>, Brent<\/strong>, Barking & Dagenham<\/strong> (despite the challenge of Reform UK) and Merton<\/strong> (despite the challenge of the Lib Dems, which I think will come up just short). I am almost Very Confident that Reform will gain Bexley<\/strong> from the Tories, but have succumbed to a small bout of cowardice. That said, if Reform don\u2019t win there I will be very surprised. The same applies to Havering<\/strong>. Will Tower Hamlets<\/strong> stay in the hands of Aspire? I think so. And here are two NoC punts: Camden<\/strong>, even though a friend of a friend who lives there thinks Labour will hang on, and Croydon<\/strong>, where I got the feeling while visiting there on Monday that Labour might win the mayoralty while the council will be something of a salad.<\/p>\n SECTION THREE: PROBABLY, BUT<\/strong><\/p>\n Here I enter in the realm of half-predictions, the terrain of the tentative, the valley of uncertainty. I think the Conservatives are going to hold Hillingdon<\/strong>, but NoC can\u2019t be ruled out. I think Enfield<\/strong>, Waltham Forest<\/strong>\u00a0and Bromley<\/strong> will go NoC, but majority outcomes are achievable. I think the Greens will probably win the Hackney<\/strong> mayoralty, but the council make-up? Too close to call. Another NoC? If forced to place a bet, I would put it on the Tories recapturing Westminster<\/strong>, but it wouldn\u2019t be a big bet. Greenwich<\/strong> will probably just about stay Labour. So will Islington<\/strong>, I just about think. And then there\u2019s Newham<\/strong>, where a defeat of Labour would be historic. I think it probably won\u2019t happen. But there again\u2026<\/p>\n SECTION FOUR: HELP!<\/strong><\/p>\n These are little more than guesses. In Southwark<\/strong>, it seems possible that Labour will survive, but a red, yellow and green NoC could happen too. In Lewisham<\/strong>, it seems possible that both the mayoralty and the council will stay in Labour hands, but if the Green tide rises high enough, they won\u2019t. Lambeth<\/strong> is a cliff-edge in that regard \u2013 Labour could lose a lot of votes there and still retain a lot of seats, but also lose enough to lose a lot. Haringey<\/strong>? See above, but throw the Lib Dems into the mix. Wandsworth<\/strong>? The Greens will hurt Labour more than Reform will hurt the Tories, but the signals from the ground are rather mixed. And finally, Barnet<\/strong>. Will Labour hold on or will the Tories make a comeback? Help!<\/p>\n CONCLUSION<\/strong><\/p>\n My firm prediction is that almost anything could have happened by the time London\u2019s polling stations close. See you on the other side.<\/p>\n Follow Dave Hill on\u00a0Bluesky<\/a>\u00a0and at\u00a0LinkedIn<\/a>. Read London Decides here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n