{"id":945882,"date":"2026-05-08T10:42:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T10:42:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/945882\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T10:42:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T10:42:21","slug":"john-curtice-gives-verdict-on-labour-election-wipeout-and-brexit-is-key-politics-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/945882\/","title":{"rendered":"John Curtice gives verdict on Labour election wipeout – and Brexit is key | Politics | News"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sir Keir Starmer<\/a>\u2019s Labour suffered a local election wipeout as Reform UK stormed to victory in fragmented polling, Sir John Curtice said. The polling expert warned Brexit remains the decisive fault line in British politics as Nigel Farage\u2019s party capitalised on Leave heartlands to top the overnight counts.<\/p>\n

Writing for the BBC<\/a>, Sir John, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: \u201cReform<\/a> are certainly the winners. The party has won most seats \u2014 30% of those declared so far.\u201d In a BBC sample of more than 500 wards, Reform recorded an average 26% vote share, enough to dominate rivals in a splintered electorate. Support rocketed to 41% in wards where over 60% backed Brexit<\/a> in 2016, but fell to just 10% where Leave support was under 49%.<\/p>\n

Sir John added: \u201cThe one place where it has gained control of a council, Newcastle-under-Lyme, voted by nearly two-to-one in favour of Brexit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Labour endured devastating losses. The party\u2019s vote share fell 16 points on 2022 levels and 19 points on 2024.<\/p>\n

Sir John said: \u201cBoth Labour and the Conservatives<\/a> have suffered a sharp loss of support. The drop has been especially sharp in places where the party was previously strongest and in wards where many people identify as Muslim.\u201d<\/p>\n

Labour lost around 250 seats \u2014 half of those defended \u2014 and control of eight councils. Regarding the Conservatives, Sir John said support \u201cis down on average by 11 points since 2022 and 9 points since 2024. Support fell especially heavily where Reform support was highest, underlining the threat it is posing to Kemi Badenoch\u2019s party.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Tories<\/a> shed a net 137 seats but regained Westminster council, a gain Sir John attributed mainly to Labour\u2019s 17-point collapse there rather than Conservative strength. Their own vote still fell five points. Reform\u2019s targeted gains in Brexit areas have magnified the damage to both main parties.<\/p>\n

Referring to Labour, Sir John noted: \u201cThis pattern has helped to magnify the party\u2019s seat losses.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Greens posted their strongest local election showing yet, averaging 16% \u2014 up seven points on 2022 \u2014 and securing a net 25 seats. However, Sir John said their success yielded \u201ca number of creditable second and (especially) third places, but relatively few firsts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Liberal Democrat advances were limited. They gained Portsmouth and Stockport but lost Hull, with vote share down three points on both 2022 and 2024. Gains came mainly from collapsing Labour and Tory votes rather than broad momentum.<\/p>\n

With only one-third of seats declared so far, Sir John said Britain\u2019s politics \u201chas become highly fragmented,\u201d adding: \u201cThe outcome of many key battles is as yet unknown. Both the Conservatives and Labour will be hoping that today brings them better news.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reform\u2019s performance in Leave strongholds demonstrates the referendum\u2019s enduring power, he said. Sir John noted: \u201cIn places that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016\u2026 support for Reform has averaged 41%.\u201d<\/p>\n

The results leave Sir Keir\u2019s government facing questions over its support in traditional heartlands and among Muslim voters. Senior Labour figures were braced for further pain as counting continued.<\/p>\n

Mr Farage\u2019s party has seized the momentum, winning more seats than any other force despite a 26% average vote that would be modest in a general election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sir Keir Starmer\u2019s Labour suffered a local election wipeout as Reform UK stormed to victory in fragmented polling,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":945883,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,90026,264050,748,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,264051,264048,528,264047,386,264049,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-945882","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-brexit-party","10":"tag-brexit-voters","11":"tag-britain","12":"tag-eu","13":"tag-europe","14":"tag-european","15":"tag-european-union","16":"tag-great-britain","17":"tag-john-curtice-analysis","18":"tag-labour-election-losses","19":"tag-labour-party","20":"tag-professor-sir-john-curtice","21":"tag-reform-uk","22":"tag-reform-uk-victory","23":"tag-uk","24":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116538543267269055","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/945882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=945882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/945882\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/945883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=945882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=945882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=945882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}