\u201cThe fightback has begun.\u201d That was the refrain from Tory MPs, candidates and party sources reacting to the Westminster and Wandsworth results in today\u2019s local elections. In one sense, they are right \u2013 though they should not get carried away.<\/p>\n
They are right because, if any Conservative recovery is to be credible, these London successes had to be banked. Without them, any talk of shifting up a gear and \u201ccoming back\u201d would have rung hollow. The only story would have been one of heartland losses.<\/p>\n
At the time of writing, the Conservatives have already lost more than 300 seats. Which is why what Kemi Badenoch said at her City Hall rally earlier today after the London results must prove true if the party is to regain serious footing: \u201cThis is the beginning, not the end.\u201d<\/p>\n
Within Conservative circles, it was privately acknowledged that Westminster and Wandsworth had to be won back. They were to serve as the clearest evidence of progress \u2013 the first sign of a possible revival.<\/p>\n
Ahead of polling day, CCHQ knew London was where the party could make its statement. Badenoch would appear there early on results day to project momentum and renewal before the more painful results from elsewhere in the country rolled in.<\/p>\n
That is exactly what happened. Scarcely had Badenoch declared at her Westminster rally that one could \u201csee those signs of renewal everywhere that we are standing\u201d than the Conservatives lost Essex County Council for the first time in a quarter of a century.<\/p>\n
Essex is home turf for several senior Conservatives: Badenoch herself, Sir James Cleverly, Priti Patel, Alex Burghart, Richard Holden and chief whip Rebecca Harris among them. To lose control of the council in one\u2019s own political backyard \u2013 a county long regarded with deep Tory affection \u2013 is hardly ideal, particularly considering 24 seats were still left to declare when the result came through.<\/p>\n
Or consider Hampshire, where the Conservatives have lost overall control of the county council for the first time in nearly 30 years, even if they are the party with the most seats. True, Fareham Borough Council remained blue in Reform defector Suella Braverman\u2019s patch, with Reform making only one gain while the Conservatives held every seat in Hamble Valley. But the broader pattern remains troubling. In Suffolk, meanwhile, Reform captured the county council as the Conservatives fell back by 21 seats.<\/p>\n
Given that the party\u2019s electoral presence in the North is already diminished, one might have expected the South to hold firmer. It has not.<\/p>\n
As one Tory MP affected by the losses put it to me: \u201cAt least it doesn\u2019t feel as dramatic as it did last year in Kent.\u201d Yet these areas have long been considered Conservative heartlands, and they are now being eroded by a rival party on the Right.<\/p>\n
There had, of course, been extensive expectation management before polling day. Party figures repeatedly stressed that many of these seats were last fought at the height of the vaccine bounce, and argued that the Conservatives were now approaching their electoral low-water mark. From here, they insisted, things could only improve. Even so, the scale of the losses remains stark.<\/p>\n
Indeed, one LOTO source suggested that even the London successes risk becoming a \u201cdouble-edged sword\u201d for the Conservative narrative. \u201cReform will weaponise it,\u201d they told me, \u201cto say we no longer represent working people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another Tory MP observed drily: \u201cWe win where it\u2019s red versus blue and die where there\u2019s too much Reform \u2026 at the risk of stating the obvious.\u201d<\/p>\n
That strategic dilemma explains why the party is now keen to emphasise victories in places such as Bexley and Harlow, both top Reform targets. According to another LOTO source, CCHQ intends to study these campaigns closely for lessons about how to counter Reform more effectively.<\/p>\n
The excitement within Conservative ranks over the London gains also extends to the next mayoral election. There is growing hope that the right candidate could mount a serious challenge. James Cleverly\u2019s name continues to circulate. One LOTO source also mentioned both Seb Coe, former MP and Olympic athlete, and even the Apprentice star and former West Ham vice-chairman Baroness Brady\u2019s name have been spoken about, after she recently hosted an away day for Tory peers.<\/p>\n
Results are still coming in, not least from Scotland and Wales. In Scotland, Conservatives had been nervous about the regional vote under the Additional Member System, where dynamics seem to not suit them so well in a broader collapse of support. There have, however, been a couple of encouraging results on a constituency note in Dumfriesshire, Aberdeenshire West, alongside Galloway and West Dumfries. Where they narrowly miss out, party strategists are already making the argument that Reform votes effectively handed seats to the SNP. In Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine, for instance, Stephen Flynn held on for the SNP by little more than 1,000 votes over the Conservatives; Reform\u2019s 6,000 votes, Tories argue, denied them what would have been a major scalp.<\/p>\n
In Wales, matters were always likely to prove difficult given the absence of sitting Tory MPs. Even so, a few Conservatives have already been declared to the Senedd, including Andrew RT Davies and Natasha Asghar.<\/p>\n