{"id":950721,"date":"2026-05-10T15:49:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T15:49:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/950721\/"},"modified":"2026-05-10T15:49:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T15:49:21","slug":"the-labour-leadership-hopefuls-with-the-best-chance-of-beating-reform-and-farage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/950721\/","title":{"rendered":"The Labour leadership hopefuls with the best chance of beating Reform and Farage"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sir Keir Starmer is facing increased pressure to resign after Labour lost control of over 30 councils in England\u2019s local elections and historic heartlands in places that, at one time, seemed unthinkable.<\/p>\n<p>Labour has lost control of 38 councils and <a class=\"post_in-line_link\" href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/shorts\/election-results-at-a-glance-and-key-battlegrounds-to-come?srsltid=AfmBOoqN722f0KL9gMspcNK9eqadEz9RsGNF9EU4lYkbazZlBmnH1dy6&amp;ico=in-line_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">shed more than 1,400 councillors in this week\u2019s local elections<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Reform UK won more than 1,200 council seats across England, gaining control of ten councils \u2013 many of them in traditional Labour heartlands \u2013 while Plaid Cymru ended 100 years of Labour control in Wales in the Senedd elections.<\/p>\n<p>But Starmer, speaking on Saturday, <a class=\"post_in-line_link\" href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/news\/politics\/starmers-election-nightmare-is-now-real-and-its-only-going-to-get-worse-4399187?srsltid=AfmBOopKY7lBp_-xrMGEOshy45j8KIAgQ7pvAVNmx4MpuFWbUIMYfgVo&amp;ico=in-line_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">insisted he would not walk away<\/a> and would lead the party into the next election.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m not going to walk away from the job I was elected to do in July 2024. I\u2019m not going to plunge the country into chaos\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n<p>Both allies and critics acknowledge <a class=\"post_in-line_link\" href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/news\/politics\/cabinet-could-move-to-oust-starmer-in-days-insiders-warn-4407664?srsltid=AfmBOoqELuBDonh0YXuj4xLvZuevTIYimftIRJg4Ih8GVtEBd-9wHTsB&amp;ico=in-line_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he is unlikely to go voluntarily,<\/a> but a leadership contest can also be triggered by a challenge from within the parliamentary party.<\/p>\n<p>Former ally, Josh Simons, has called for Starmer to resign. At the same time, ex-junior Foreign Office minister Catherine West issued an ultimatum threatening to run if the Cabinet did not oust Starmer.<\/p>\n<p>The threshold for getting onto the ballot paper is 20 per cent of Labour MPs, currently around 81 members.<\/p>\n<p>The question of who might replace Starmer is now inseparable from a harder one: which of his would-be successors could actually take on Nigel Farage?<\/p>\n<p>Andy Burnham<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"507\" width=\"760\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/SEI_296298776.jpg\" alt=\"MOSTON, ENGLAND - MAY 8: Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham arrives at FC United for a charity football match at Broadhurst Park on May 8, 2026 in Moston, England. Andy Burnham is seen by some in the Labour Party as a possible successor to leader Keir Starmer. (Photo by Ryan Jenkinson\/Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-4408619\"  \/>Burnham cannot run for the leadership unless he wins a seat in Parliament (Photo: Ryan Jenkinson\/Getty)<\/p>\n<p>Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is widely considered the frontrunner. YouGov data from April 2026 shows he is the only major Labour politician with a positive net favourability rating, currently +9 compared to Starmer\u2019s -45.<\/p>\n<p>He is also the only Labour figure with positive net ratings among both Liberal Democrat and Green voters \u2013 crucial if the party wants to build a broad coalition against Reform.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest catch is that he cannot run for the leadership unless he wins a seat in Parliament. Strong gains by both Reform and the Green Party of England and Wales in Greater Manchester this week show that it may not be straightforward.<\/p>\n<p>The seat most closely watched as an option for his return is Manchester Rusholme, held by Afzal Khan, one of Burnham\u2019s closest allies.<\/p>\n<p>Khan has an 8,000-strong majority, but the Greens saw a 19 per cent surge in vote share there in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>The seat is also next door to Gorton and Denton, where Burnham was blocked from standing in a by-election earlier this year \u2013 a contest subsequently won by the Greens, with Reform pushing Labour into third.<\/p>\n<p>Other MPs said to be under pressure to stand aside include Peter Dowd in Bootle, Charlotte Nichols in Warrington North, and Marie Rimmer in St Helens South \u2013 all deny being approached.<\/p>\n<p>Reform came second to both Nichols and Rimmer at the last election, and St Helens Borough Council fell to Reform this week, with the Labour group leader losing his seat.<\/p>\n<p>If Burnham leaves for Westminster, Labour also risks losing the mayoralty, which runs until 2028, to Reform or the Greens in the resulting by-election.<\/p>\n<p>Angela Rayner<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"507\" width=\"760\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/SEI_294110706.jpg\" alt=\"LONDON, UK - APRIL 21: Angela Rayner, former UK Deputy Prime Minister and former Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, is seen at the National Growth Debate at the Institute of Directors in London, United Kingdom. Credit: (Photo by Thomas Krych\/Anadolu via Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-4403368\"  \/>Rayner\u2019s policy record in government includes the Employment Rights Act and the Renters\u2019 Rights Act (Photo: Thomas Krych\/Anadolu)<\/p>\n<p>Angela Rayner, the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne and former deputy prime minister, is another frontrunner \u2013 and the only Labour figure besides Burnham with positive net favourability among the party\u2019s own 2024 voters, at 48 per cent favourable against 33 per cent unfavourable.<\/p>\n<p>Her policy record in government includes the Employment Rights Act and the Renters\u2019 Rights Act, which could help her appeal to left-wing voters.<\/p>\n<p>But Reform does not see her as a threat. Asked by The Daily Telegraph in April which Labour leader would cause Reform the greatest problems, Farage said her politics were \u201cway, way out left\u201d and predicted her economic policies would drive away aspirational voters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe economic damage of a Rayner premiership would probably, in the long term, help us enormously,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>With the general public, her net rating stands at -31. The HMRC investigation into her stamp duty affairs has yet to conclude, and it is understood she is unlikely to move until it does.<\/p>\n<p>Support within the parliamentary party is also uncertain. The i Paper revealed this week that <a class=\"post_in-line_link\" href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/news\/politics\/secret-meeting-blown-labour-leadership-race-wide-open-4398843?srsltid=AfmBOoqm53aed8mRa6YGs30iCcGsW5gh83leKOrkgXGuFhDfZRkOeXqH&amp;ico=in-line_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rayner travelled to Sheffield to meet Louise Haigh,<\/a> who leads the soft-left Tribune group of around 100 MPs, to canvas support for a leadership bid, but Haigh declined to back her.<\/p>\n<p>One MP told The i Paper that soft-left support appeared to be moving towards Burnham instead.<\/p>\n<p>Wes Streeting<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"506\" width=\"760\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/SEI_294999642.jpg\" alt=\"LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - APRIL 28, 2026: Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting arrives in Downing Street to attend the weekly Cabinet meeting in London, United Kingdom on April 28, 2026. (Photo credit should read Wiktor Szymanowicz\/Future Publishing via Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-4397703\"  \/>Health Secretary Wes Streeting has publicly denied any intention to challenge Starmer (Photo: Wiktor Szymanowicz\/Future Publishing)<\/p>\n<p>There have been reports that Health Secretary Wes Streeting\u2019s allies have been laying the groundwork for a leadership bid for some time.<\/p>\n<p>The Times reported this week that half a dozen MPs and senior Labour figures have been acting as \u201chandlers\u201d to sign up supporters and develop policy, with a former Downing Street aide among those involved.<\/p>\n<p>Streeting has publicly denied any intention to challenge Starmer.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDon\u2019t feed it. It undermines all of us fighting elections locally,\u201d he urged colleagues in a WhatsApp message.<\/p>\n<p>Allies have argued that his more centrist economic offer \u2013 focused on public service reform and fiscal discipline \u2013 could prove better suited to winning back voters who have drifted to Reform than a shift leftwards.<\/p>\n<p>His biggest barrier, however, is that his own seat is far from safe.<\/p>\n<p>Streeting held Ilford North at the last election with a majority of just 528 over an independent pro-Palestine candidate.<\/p>\n<p>His public approval rating stands at -20, and many in the parliamentary party regard him as too centre-right to build a broad enough coalition to take on Reform.<\/p>\n<p>Some of his own supporters believe his window is closing. \u201cIf it\u2019s Andy versus Wes, Andy would win. So if Wes is going to go, he\u2019s got to go quickly,\u201d <a class=\"post_in-line_link\" href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/news\/politics\/secret-meeting-blown-labour-leadership-race-wide-open-4398843?srsltid=AfmBOooa_k4pMEK8i_cbJbIMl8kyJqq1AoNGzpSPY_F9Tp8FEfsDg9fM&amp;ico=in-line_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one MP ally told <\/a><a class=\"post_in-line_link\" href=\"https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/news\/politics\/secret-meeting-blown-labour-leadership-race-wide-open-4398843?srsltid=AfmBOooa_k4pMEK8i_cbJbIMl8kyJqq1AoNGzpSPY_F9Tp8FEfsDg9fM&amp;ico=in-line_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The i Paper<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A spokesperson said: \u201cWes is not going to challenge the prime minister and has said that repeatedly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Some supporters of Burnham believe the early call to start a leadership election may hand the momentum to Streeting, as the current Greater Manchester mayor has yet to say which seat in Parliament he could run for.<\/p>\n<p>Ed Miliband<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"507\" width=\"760\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/SEI_294052317.jpg\" alt=\"LONDON, UNITED - APRIL 21: Ed Miliband, UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, addresses the National Growth Debate at the Institute of Directors in London, United Kingdom, discussing economic growth and energy policy on April 21, 2026. (Photo by Thomas Krych\/Anadolu via Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-4409462\"  \/>Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has not ruled himself out of the race (Photo: Thomas Krych\/Anadolu)<\/p>\n<p>Energy Secretary Ed Miliband tops cabinet rankings among Labour members, with a net favourability of +65 according to Survation polling for LabourList in April.<\/p>\n<p>But he has ruled himself out of the race. Allies told The Times that his aim is to be kingmaker to a Burnham leadership bid \u2013 and to be rewarded with the chancellorship in return.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe absolutely doesn\u2019t want the leadership for himself but does see a role as being a kingmaker for Andy,\u201d one MP told The Times.<\/p>\n<p>If he did run, his green energy agenda would give Labour a distinctive offer that Reform cannot match, and his record on the environment and his previous popularity among younger voters could help him make the case against Farage.<\/p>\n<p>The Guardian has reported that MPs from Labour\u2019s left are already urging him to reconsider, fearing a Streeting coronation if no soft-left candidate steps forward.<\/p>\n<p>But he could face immediate pressure to call a general election given his 2015 defeat, and his Doncaster constituency is exposed \u2013 Reform took 37 of the council\u2019s 55 seats there in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe momentum has definitely swung away from Angela,\u201d one ally told The Times. \u201cEd has taken soundings and thinks Andy would stand a much stronger chance if the party holds on long enough to trigger a contest.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sir Keir Starmer is facing increased pressure to resign after Labour lost control of over 30 councils in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":950722,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8817],"tags":[748,393,4884,528,262516,386,1620,520,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-950721","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sheffield","8":"tag-britain","9":"tag-england","10":"tag-great-britain","11":"tag-labour-party","12":"tag-local-elections-2026","13":"tag-reform-uk","14":"tag-sheffield","15":"tag-sir-keir-starmer","16":"tag-uk","17":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=950721"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950721\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/950722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=950721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=950721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=950721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}