{"id":9521,"date":"2025-04-11T01:21:13","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T01:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/9521\/"},"modified":"2025-04-11T01:21:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T01:21:13","slug":"every-single-portfolio-manager-is-now-trying-to-figure-out-how-long-the-roller-coaster-will-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/9521\/","title":{"rendered":"Every single portfolio manager is now trying to figure out how long the roller coaster will last"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><strong>President Trump smashed the pause button on some of his tariffs<\/strong> before big banks careened into a head-to-head with analysts about their earnings guidance on Friday. The president\u2019s announcement on social media had an immediate impact on markets, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/nasdaq\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Nasdaq;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Nasdaq<\/a> ending the day up 12%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose more than 9%. Individual stocks climbed: <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/delta-air-lines\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Delta Air Lines;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Delta Air Lines<\/a> lifted 23%, <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/nvidia\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Nvidia;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Nvidia<\/a> rose more than 18%, and <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/apple\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Apple;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Apple<\/a>, which saw more than $770 billion in value evaporate after concerns about the retail price of iPhones, closed the day up 15%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Stock markets erupted with a torrential surge of optimism following President Donald Trump\u2019s post on Truth Social <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/trump-tariffs-90-day-pause-china-trade-war-bessent-treasury-universal-stock-market-rebound\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:pausing;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">pausing<\/a> some of his tariffs, and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassuring the world that the U.S. is not embroiled in a trade war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Despite the brief respite from the carnage of the week, though, a <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/trump-tariff-pause-permanent-damage-stock-market-outlook\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:chilling uncertainty;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">chilling uncertainty<\/a> looms over the next 90 days.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">\u201cEvery portfolio manager is trying to figure out whether you can draw a straight line to future negotiations,\u2019\u201d said Jake Schurmeier, portfolio manager at Harbor Capital and a former member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York\u2019s Markets Group. \u201cWe get another 90 days before we have to do this song and dance again.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">To level set: President Trump announced <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/02\/trump-claims-his-tariffs-are-kind-consumer-pinch-spending-economic-outlook-markets-reaction\/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:a bevy of tariffs;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">a bevy of tariffs<\/a> during a Rose Garden address last week that had been telegraphed since his campaign. Investors had priced in tariffs and the subsequent impact on trade policy, but the extent of the tariffs was <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/jamie-dimon-recession-likely-tariffs-trade-deals\/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:greater than expected;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">greater than expected<\/a>. Markets plummeted in the trading days after Trump\u2019s announcement. The word \u201crecession\u201d\u2014typically <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kornferry.com\/insights\/this-week-in-leadership\/the-r-word-leaders-dare-not-speak\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:avoided;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">avoided<\/a> at all costs\u2014became a talking point, and the chances of the U.S. stumbling headlong into one <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/jamie-dimon-recession-likely-tariffs-trade-deals\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:rose;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">rose<\/a>, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/jpmorgan-chase\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:JPMorgan Chase;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">JPMorgan Chase<\/a>, whose CEO Jamie Dimon <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/jamie-dimon-recession-likely-tariffs-trade-deals\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:announced publicly;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">announced publicly<\/a> that a recession was a \u201clikely outcome\u201d after the tariff tumult. Trump said Dimon\u2019s comments factored into <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/trump-didnt-care-that-the-stock-market-was-crashing-bond-yields-were-the-pain-point-that-finally-got-him-to-pause-tariffs\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:his decision;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">his decision<\/a> to issue the partial pause on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Following Trump\u2019s announcement, markets staged a gravity-defying rally, with the Nasdaq ending the day up 12%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose more than 9%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Michael Orlando, executive director in the J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities and Energy Management at the University of Colorado Denver, told Fortune the tariff pause is a relief, mostly from uncertainty, which had continued to weigh on equity prices. But the <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/08\/treasuries-bond-yields-spiking-fed\/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:bigger development;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">bigger development<\/a>, which emerged over the weekend, was that U.S. Treasuries \u201cstopped looking like a safe harbor in a time of uncertainty and started looking like a risky bet, themselves,\u201d Orlando said.<\/p>\n<p> Story Continues <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">\u201cI think this tariff \u2018cooling off\u2019 period did a lot to dispel concerns that maybe the President doesn\u2019t understand the idea of gains from trade,\u201d Orlando added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">But the question remains: What happens next?<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">First, there\u2019s the consideration as to whether the damage from tariffs will be lasting, along with the cost of pervasive economic uncertainty, said Schurmeier. All the planning around capital expenditures and major strategic moves just got tossed out the window because there is no certainty, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The portfolio manager noted there will be critical signs to look out for during earnings calls between major companies and analysts this week, particularly regarding how CEOs and CFOs plan to grapple with questions about tariffs\u2014and anything else that might cause disruptions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">\u201cThis provides ample air cover to drop any bad news,\u201d said Schurmeier. \u201cAny bad news you have, get it out this quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Money managers will also be watching to see how big bank leaders, such as Dimon, talk about how their clients are responding, perspective on M&amp;A activity, and guidance about their willingness to provide credit, Schurmeier added. Right now, it\u2019s too early to talk about potential loan losses, but other topics will be indicative about whether there\u2019s stronger business sentiment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">\u201cWhatever they say will be pretty instructive,\u201d said Schurmeier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The other major looming issue is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/04\/amendment-to-recipricol-tariffs-and-updated-duties-as-applied-to-low-value-imports-from-the-peoples-republic-of-china\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:China;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">China<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The next few weeks are likely to zero in on the impact of possible further retaliation after China pledged to \u201cfight to end\u201d even before Trump raised tariffs on the country to 125%. Trump countered with no pause on China tariffs, and instead <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/trump-tariffs-90-day-pause-china-trade-war-bessent-treasury-universal-stock-market-rebound\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:hiked them;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">hiked them<\/a> because of China\u2019s \u201clack of respect,\u201d the president wrote on social media.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Idanna Appio, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments and former deputy head of the global economic analysis department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the situation with China is extremely serious, from tariff levels to the potential for a broken trading relationship between the world\u2019s two largest economies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">It\u2019s unclear if Trump\u2019s latest move will push China toward negotiation on tariffs or if economic tensions will reach such a level that China becomes more confrontational in the geopolitical sphere, Appio said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">\u201cGiven the sharp escalation and the economic friction between the U.S. and China, which is obviously not good for the global economy, does that spillover to the geopolitical side?\u201d she said. \u201cIf they feel they have nothing left to lose\u2026does China start to push into other domains? I hope the answer to that is, \u2018No.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/overstock-com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Beyond;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Beyond<\/a> what might happen with China, the U.S. economy remains in a \u201cvery tenuous place,\u201d Appio said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">She put a recession into her forecast but Appio said she isn\u2019t sure if she\u2019s removing it at this stage because of looming uncertainty even if tariffs aren\u2019t as large as those initially announced last week. Plus, there\u2019s still room for further tariff action and few uncertainties have been truly eliminated at this stage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">\u201cOne fear I have is that we wind up repeating this whole exercise in 90 days,\u201d said Appio. \u201cIt\u2019s been a roller coaster ride, to say the least.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">This story was originally featured on <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/04\/09\/markets-rally-tariff-pause-trump-money-portfolio-manager-china-tensions-economy-roller-coaster\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Fortune.com;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Fortune.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"President Trump smashed the pause button on some of his tariffs before big banks careened into a head-to-head&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9522,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3093],"tags":[6475,51,6474,474,6473,3621,2499,6472,1551,1831,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-9521","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"tag-announcement","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-delta-air-lines","11":"tag-finance","12":"tag-jake-schurmeier","13":"tag-jamie-dimon","14":"tag-personal-finance","15":"tag-portfolio-manager","16":"tag-president-trump","17":"tag-stock-markets","18":"tag-uk","19":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114316711299077530","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}