weather<\/a> over Bristol and the West Country will settle down with a lot less rain.<\/p>\nBut exactly where that high pressure will be centred will make all the difference when it comes to just how hot it will be next weekend, according to Met Office weather expert Alex Burkill.<\/p>\n
He said that a range of computer forecasting models used by the Met Office to pull together the most accurate predictions showed huge variances in the estimated temperatures next weekend – and it all depends on where the high pressure is.<\/p>\n
Models which show the high pressure building in the Atlantic and reaching the UK by the weekend show the temperatures soaring as high as 24 or 25C.<\/p>\n
But the models that show the high pressure positioned out to the west or north west of the UK in the Atlantic could still mean shivering in northerly winds, and temperatures could struggle to even reach average for this time of year.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe uncertainty stems from trying to work out exactly where the high pressure will be, by the end of the week,\u201d he said on the forecaster’s YouTube channel.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are big questions – obviously it\u2019s a bank holiday weekend coming up – and so what the weather is likely to bring is high pressure, which is set to become more dominant across the country, by the end of the week and more so over the weekend. So that should settle things down.<\/p>\n
![\"Met](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0_Bank-Holiday-Weekend.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Met Office weather expert Alex Burkill explains how different computer models are predicting different scenarios for the Whitsun Bank Holiday Weekend at the end of May 2026, pictured on May 16.(Image: Met Office)<\/p>\n
\u201cThe position of the high is all important for how warm or how chilly it\u2019s going to be. If the high pressure shifts slightly to the west, it will make a difference to temperatures.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are signs that higher pressure is going to come. It\u2019s just a little difficult to say how warm it\u2019s going to be. Nonetheless, I am expecting temperatures to rise. It\u2019s cold for the time of year at the moment,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The most optimistic computer models show hot temperatures on Sunday and Monday. \u201cIt\u2019s definitely not a guarantee but there are signs that we are going to see things warming up as we go through next week – mid to late teens to low 20s is the more likely outcome.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigh pressure is likely to build in the coming week. It\u2019s going to take a while to get there, so there will be some changeable weather through the start of next week. And then we are going to see a rise in our temperatures, going from below average for the time of year at the moment, to a fair bit higher – exactly how much higher than it is at the moment? Well that\u2019s still to be determined.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if we do get temperatures peaking, it\u2019s quite unlikely that it will be all three days of the bank holiday weekend that will be getting those high temperatures. We\u2019ll have the details more firmed up as we get nearer the time,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
Bristol and the West Country already had one taste of summer – if only briefly – back in April when the region was hotter than Barcelona<\/a> for just one day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Temperatures are set to rise after a chilly start to May 20:16, 16 May 2026Updated 21:05, 16 May…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":909768,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8818],"tags":[10749,381,748,393,4884,16,15,741],"class_list":{"0":"post-965322","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bristol","8":"tag-bank-holiday","9":"tag-bristol","10":"tag-britain","11":"tag-england","12":"tag-great-britain","13":"tag-uk","14":"tag-united-kingdom","15":"tag-weather"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116586481175640831","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/965322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=965322"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/965322\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/909768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=965322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=965322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=965322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Sunshine](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0_BRI_PG_080426weather-23.jpg\")
<\/p>\n