{"id":965871,"date":"2026-05-17T04:11:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T04:11:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/965871\/"},"modified":"2026-05-17T04:11:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T04:11:17","slug":"john-curtice-gives-his-verdict-on-the-makerfield-by-election-ive-crunched-the-numbers-politics-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/965871\/","title":{"rendered":"John Curtice gives his verdict on the Makerfield by-election – ‘I’ve crunched the numbers’ | Politics | News"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Makerfield by-election is one of the most significant in modern British political history, with Reform UK<\/a> holding a formidable advantage as Andy Burnham<\/a> bids to return to Westminster, pollster Sir John Curtice<\/a> has said. The leading elections expert warned that the numbers heavily favour Reform in a contest that could derail Mr Burnham\u2019s leadership ambitions and plunge Labour<\/a> into fresh crisis.<\/p>\n

Makerfield voted 66% Leave in the 2016 EU referendum. In the 2024 General Election, Reform captured 32% of the vote there, finishing second just 13 points behind Labour and making the seat the seventh most marginal Labour-Reform contest in the country. Reform overturned a 35-point Labour lead in Runcorn & Helsby in last year\u2019s by-election.<\/p>\n

In last week\u2019s local elections, across wards wholly or mostly within the constituency, Reform surged to 50% while Labour collapsed to a dismal 23%.<\/p>\n

Writing for GB News<\/a>, Sir John, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, said: “Reform won every single council seat that was up for grabs. In truth, the party could hardly have hoped for a by-election to arise in so promising a seat as this.”<\/p>\n

Mr Burnham enters the fray with significant personal goodwill. He secured 63% in the recent Greater Manchester mayoral election \u2014 far exceeding Labour\u2019s general election performance both regionally and locally in Makerfield.<\/p>\n

Sir John, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University cautioned: “What remains uncertain is whether the personal vote Mr Burnham was able to reap for a mayoral position… will also appear in a contest in which the Labour Party and its record will be very much on the ballot paper.”<\/p>\n

A Reform victory would do far more than deliver another by-election gain. It would block Mr Burnham\u2019s path back to the Commons at a time when many Labour MPs believe he represents their best chance of improving the party\u2019s prospects at the next general election. For Nigel Farage<\/a>\u2019s party, it would further stoke Labour\u2019s leadership turmoil and reinforce Reform\u2019s growing strength in traditional heartlands.<\/p>\n

Sir John added: “Even so, Reform would be wise to field a strong candidate. Perhaps this would be an opportune time for the party\u2019s government efficiency chief, Zia Yusuf, or chair, Dr David Bull, to step up to the plate?”<\/p>\n

Kemi Badenoch has already confirmed the Conservatives<\/a> will not stand aside to help Reform, setting up a multi-party contest. However, the local election results suggest the real fight is between Reform and Labour.<\/p>\n

Sir John concluded that a heavyweight Reform opponent would “certainly help ensure that Mr Burnham\u2019s political abilities are put to the toughest possible test”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Makerfield by-election is one of the most significant in modern British political history, with Reform UK holding…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":965872,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[8916,89003,268657,12,264047,386,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-965871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-uk","8":"category-united-kingdom","9":"tag-andy-burnham","10":"tag-john-curtice","11":"tag-makerfield-by-election","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-professor-sir-john-curtice","14":"tag-reform-uk","15":"tag-uk","16":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116587966527978524","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/965871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=965871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/965871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/965872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=965871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=965871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=965871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}