{"id":967915,"date":"2026-05-18T03:41:20","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T03:41:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/967915\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T03:41:20","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T03:41:20","slug":"the-ocean-system-no-one-has-heard-of-that-could-destabilise-europe-euobserver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/967915\/","title":{"rendered":"The ocean system no one has heard of that could destabilise Europe \u2013 EUobserver"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It is called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC. A dull acronym for something without which Europe would stop looking like Europe. If the AMOC stops, Europe will experience ice-age like winters.<\/p>\n<p>This key ocean system, which regulates the global climate, could \u201cshut down\u201d as early as the middle of this century. The consequences would be drastic: a sharp cooling of Europe, chaotic weather and the breakdown of agriculture.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists have been talking about the problem for years, but a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adx4298\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">new study<\/a> suggests that a collapse is much more likely than previously assumed. \u201cI am increasingly concerned that we might cross a tipping point beyond which the shutdown of the AMOC will become inevitable, and that this could happen in the middle of this century, which is already quite close,\u201d oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2026\/apr\/15\/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> to the British daily The Guardian.<\/p>\n<p>An ensuing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2026\/apr\/23\/catastrophic-climate-event-scientists-atlantic-system-collapse-billionaire-existential-crisis\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">comment piece<\/a> by columnist and environmental activist George Monbiot also caused a stir. He argued that politicians, billionaires and fossil-fuel companies were deliberately downplaying the risks because they do not fit into their economic models or short-term profits. \u201cOne of the symptoms of the pathology known as \u2018billionaire brain\u2019 is the inability to see beyond one\u2019s own short-term gain. They would loot the planet for a few more rocks on a needless mountain of wealth. And we can see that happening,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>If the AMOC stops, Europe will experience ice-age like winters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The AMOC works like a gigantic ocean conveyor belt. It transports heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic and helps maintain the relatively mild climate on which agriculture, water supply and the functioning of states depend. Without it, temperatures, rainfall and weather in Europe and elsewhere in the world would look completely different.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists have been warning for years that the system is weakening.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/11-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-216496\"\/>The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) in the Northern hemisphere. Source : R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution\/Science\/USGCRP\/Wikimedia <\/p>\n<p><strong>What its collapse would mean:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Northern Europe would see a massive drop in average winter temperatures. In London they could fall to \u221219 degrees Celsius, in Edinburgh to \u221230 degrees and in Oslo to as low as \u221248. In February, sea ice could reach as far as the coast of England.<\/li>\n<li>Rain\u2011fed crop cultivation would become almost impossible almost everywhere.<\/li>\n<li>A shift in the tropical rain belt would complicate food production in various parts of the world.<\/li>\n<li>Drastic changes in the Amazon\u2019s water cycles could trigger a cascading collapse of the entire rainforest.<\/li>\n<li>The rise in sea levels on the east coast of the US would accelerate, directly threatening cities. Around the Atlantic, sea levels could rise by between half a metre and one metre.<\/li>\n<li>Temperatures in Antarctica could rise by 6 degrees Celsius, leading to the release of huge amounts of carbon stored in the Southern Ocean and further accelerating the climate catastrophe.<\/li>\n<li>The likelihood of devastating winter storms and summer dry spells in western Europe would increase.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Why the AMOC is weakening:<\/strong> Mainly because the climate crisis is changing the properties of the oceans. The Greenland ice sheet is melting, sending more fresh water into the North Atlantic. This water is less salty, and therefore less dense, than the surrounding ocean water. Yet it is precisely the dense, cold, salty water in the North Atlantic that sinks into the depths and drives the entire system of ocean currents. When the ocean is diluted with warmer fresh water, it sinks less readily and the AMOC slows down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>When a collapse would occur:<\/strong> The complete breakdown of the AMOC itself may not happen until the end of this century or later. But the moment when the entire collapse starts in a way that can no longer be halted, even by a drastic reduction in emissions, could come much earlier. This moment is known as a tipping point.<\/p>\n<p>According to the latest study, this tipping point could occur sooner than scientists previously assumed \u2013 sometime within the next 20 to 30 years. In other words: if it is to be prevented, the decisive steps must be taken by today\u2019s active generation.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists also concluded that several climate models had probably underestimated the speed at which the AMOC is weakening. The original \u201cpessimistic\u201d scenarios are now turning out to be realistic.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Unacceptable risk:<\/strong> Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf argued that the collapse must be prevented \u201cat all costs\u201d. Even at a time when scientists estimated the probability of collapse at only around 5 percent, he considered the risk unacceptable in view of the possible consequences. \u201cThe most dramatic climate changes in the past 100,000 years occurred precisely when the AMOC switched to a different state,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2026\/apr\/15\/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">warned<\/a> in The Guardian.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can be done about it:<\/strong> Although the scientists\u2019 findings are alarming, they also point to concrete steps we can take.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The most crucial is to cut emissions faster. They drive mechanisms such as ice melt in Greenland and the warming of the ocean surface.<\/li>\n<li>There are signs that politicians are beginning to take the situation seriously. For example, in November 2025 the government of Iceland classified the risk of an AMOC shutdown as a threat to national security. More than 40 leading scientists sent an <a href=\"https:\/\/en.vedur.is\/media\/ads_in_header\/AMOC-letter_Final.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">open letter<\/a> to the Nordic Council of Ministers \u2013 the organisation of the Nordic countries \u2013 warning that the risk of AMOC collapse was being underestimated and could have devastating consequences for Europe and global stability.<\/li>\n<li>Thanks to new methods that combine models with real-world observations, scientists can better predict future developments, which is essential for planning adaptation measures.<\/li>\n<li>An AMOC collapse would not happen overnight like in the film The Day After Tomorrow. If the system reaches a tipping point, the transition will last at least several decades, giving humanity at least some room to prepare and respond.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Monbiot points to oligarchs:<\/strong> One of the UK\u2019s best-known environmental commentators, George Monbiot, used the new findings to criticise oligarchs and the fossil-fuel industry. He argued that they used their influence in politics and the media to downplay climate risks, including the potential collapse of ocean systems.<\/p>\n<p>According to Monbiot, influential economic models also help them in this. He drew on criticism of the well-known economist and Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, whose models <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/William_Nordhaus\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">have significantly influenced<\/a> climate policies around the world. These models suggest that even very high warming of 4 degrees Celsius would cause \u201conly\u201d limited economic damage.<\/p>\n<p>Other economists, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=pGI0R1w_Xws\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">especially Steve Keen<\/a>, argued that this was a dangerous mistake. They pointed out that Nordhaus\u2019s models reduce climate damage mainly to a fall in GDP and effectively assume that civilisation can adapt to almost anything, including the collapse of ecosystems or disruption of the global food system. However, they underestimate mass deaths, state collapse and migration waves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It is called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC. A dull acronym for something without which Europe would&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":967916,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3843],"tags":[217083,728,224969,224966,270230,224964,270228,224967,70,224965,270229,224968,16,15],"class_list":["post-967915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-typedefinedterm","tag-environment","tag-identifier25","tag-identifier4274","tag-identifier4525","tag-nameclimate","tag-nameenvironment","tag-namegreen-economy","tag-science","tag-termcodeclimate","tag-termcodeenvironment","tag-termcodegreen-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116593510817269052","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/967915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=967915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/967915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/967916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=967915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=967915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=967915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}