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Nigel Farage, then leader of the anti-immigration, pro-Brexit UKIP party, stands in front of a campaign poster on June 23, 2016. In the UK, many believed that the number of migrants arriving would fall following Brexit. However, the opposite has happened. <\/p>\n
EPA\/FACUNDO ARRIZABALAGA <\/p>\n
Brexit has had unexpected consequences for migration. As Switzerland debates an initiative aimed at reducing immigration that could jeopardise the free movement of people with the European Union, some are calling for lessons to be learnt from what has happened across the Channel.\n<\/p>\n
This content was published on <\/p>\n
May 26, 2026 – 09:00\n<\/p>\n
On June 14, Swiss voters will decide on an initiative by the right-wing Swiss People\u2019s Party aimed at limiting immigration. Entitled \u2018No to a ten-million Switzerland!\u2019External link<\/a>, the proposal calls on the Federal Council and parliament to prevent the permanent resident population from reaching ten million by 2050. <\/p>\n To achieve this, it proposes restrictions on asylum and family reunification and does not rule out, as a last resort, terminating the agreement on the free movement of persons with the EU.<\/p>\n >> You can find an explanation of the initiative, as well as the positions of the different camps, in the article below<\/strong>:<\/strong><\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Swiss Politics\n <\/p>\n \u2018No to ten million\u2019 vote \u2013 should Switzerland cap its population? <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Apr 14, 2026 <\/p>\n On June 14, the Swiss will vote on a right-wing initiative aiming to cap immigration. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: \u2018No to ten million\u2019 vote \u2013 should Switzerland cap its population? Immigration fears drove Brexit vote<\/p>\n No country has so far used immigration restrictions to cap its population<\/a>. There is, however, a precedent for leaving free movement behind: the United Kingdom. As the campaign gathers pace in Switzerland, some observers are turning to the only country that has effectively abandoned this migration regime by leaving the European Union.<\/p>\n It was almost exactly ten years ago that the British voted in favour of Brexit on June 23, 2016External link<\/a>, to the surprise of almost everyone. The UK officially left the EU more than four years later, on January 1, 2021.<\/p>\n Post-election analyses showed that concerns about immigration had been a decisive factorExternal link<\/a>. In the years leading up to the vote, net migration from the EU \u2013 particularly from Central and Eastern Europe \u2013 rose sharply following the 2004 and 2008 enlargements, peaking in 2014.<\/p>\n The slogan \u201cTake back control\u201d, repeatedly used by Brexit supporters at the time, strongly echoes arguments now advanced by the Swiss People\u2019s Party, which says immigration is \u201cout of controlExternal link<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n Cenni Najy, head of politics at the Centre Patronal business leaders\u2019 association and an opponent of the People\u2019s Party initiative, sees \u201cstriking parallels\u201d. \u201cThe migration issue facing Switzerland today is similar to the one that was at the heart of discussions during the Brexit campaign,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Immigration has surged in UK following Brexit<\/p>\n In the UK, many believed that migrant arrivals would fall if the country left the EU. However, \u201cthe impact of Brexit itself was not to reduce migration overall\u201d, says Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy in the Department of Political Economy at King\u2019s College London. \u201cIn fact, it was quite the opposite: the post-Brexit system that the government introduced did result in a net increase in migration overall.\u201d<\/p>\n Immigration from the EU and EFTA (Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Norway) began to slow as early as 2016, even before the UK formally left the EU. \u201cBrexit discouraged Europeans from coming here,\u201d Portes told Swissinfo. The slowdown became even more pronounced after freedom of movement ended.<\/p>\n From 2021, this was replaced by a new system designed to make it easier for third-country nationals to access the labour market and obtain student visas. The change came against a backdrop of labour shortages linked to the post-Covid recovery and the arrival of large numbers of refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine.<\/p>\n UK immigration before and after Brexit <\/p>\n Before Brexit:<\/strong> As an EU member state, the UK already had a degree of autonomy over immigration policy, particularly regarding non-EU nationals. Employers wishing to recruit someone from a non-EU country had to sponsor them.<\/p>\n EU citizens, however, could live and work in the UK without a visa thanks to freedom of movement. The country did, however, benefit from several EU opt-outs relating to migration and border controls.<\/p>\n Post-Brexit:<\/strong> Since 2021, London has operated a new points-based immigration systemExternal link<\/a> that treats Europeans and non-Europeans equally. Various visas have been introduced, with priority given to skilled jobs, although there are some exceptions for care workers and seasonal workers.<\/p>\n The new system has made it more difficult for EU citizens to move to the UK, whereas they had previously been free to settle there. Conversely, it has made it easier for people from non-EU countries to immigrate, particularly international students and their families.<\/p>\n More non-European immigration<\/p>\n \u201cIn the years that followed, the decline in immigration from Europe was more than offset by a very large rise in migration from outside the EU,\u201d says Portes.<\/p>\n Faced with widespread discontent, the British government has since tightened its immigration policy, particularly with regard to family reunification. The latest figures, published in 2025, show that net migration has returned to its pre-Brexit level.<\/p>\n However, its composition is now very different, notes the Oxford Migration ObservatoryExternal link<\/a>: immigration from non-EU countries remains significantly higher than before Brexit, while immigration from the EU has fallen sharply. Today, most migrants come from India, China, Pakistan and NigeriaExternal link<\/a>.<\/p>\n Rise in unauthorised boat arrivals<\/p>\n Furthermore, one category has not declined: asylum-seekers. Their numbers have surged since 2021, peaking at more than 110,000External link<\/a> in autumn 2025. Between 2004 and 2020, the figure ranged between 22,000 and 46,000 per year.<\/p>\n This rise is largely due to the increase in crossings of the English Channel in small boats. According to the Migration ObservatoryExternal link<\/a>, nearly 46,000 people attempted the crossing in 2022, compared with around 300 in 2018. A second peak, of around 42,000 crossings, was recorded in 2025. In early May, the UK Home Office said that more than 200,000 peopleExternal link<\/a> had attempted the crossing since 2018, almost all of them to seek asylum.<\/p>\n Portes believes that Brexit only partly explains the increase. Other factors have also been put forward, such as tighter controls at European borders and the lower cost of crossings organised by people smugglers.<\/p>\n![\"Crowded?](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/454006733_highres_f166ae.jpg\")
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