{"id":991921,"date":"2026-05-29T09:17:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/991921\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T09:17:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:17:14","slug":"europe-is-edging-closer-to-a-trade-war-with-china-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/991921\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe Is Edging Closer to a Trade War With China. Here\u2019s Why."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Kaja Kallas, the top European Union diplomat, recently suggested that ending the continent\u2019s dependence on China was like trying to cure a disease. \u201cChemotherapy\u201d might be needed, she said, and it was likely to be painful.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">The comments were an example of the tone Europe is increasingly taking on China, the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/policy.trade.ec.europa.eu\/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region\/countries-and-regions\/china_en\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">second-largest goods trading partner<\/a> for the 27-nation European Union, after the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">As Beijing adopts more aggressive trade policies and as imports from China into Europe soar, European leaders and companies are fretting over their reliance on Chinese products \u2014 and debating how to pull back. With China only growing more <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/09\/business\/china-april-trade-exports-imports.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dominant in manufacturing<\/a>, Europe sees an existential threat to its own industries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">\u201cThe tone is basically panic,\u201d said Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Bruegel, an economic think tank in Brussels. \u201cThere\u2019s a sense of imminent collapse of industry, of imminent danger.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Anxiety in Brussels is being met with hostility in Beijing, where officials warn that China will hit back at any protective measures. The sparring is likely to heat up further in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">World leaders will talk <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.elysee.fr\/en\/G7evian\/2026\/01\/23\/the-g7-priorities\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">about global economic imbalances<\/a> at a Group of 7 meeting in Evian, France, next month. China is then expected to be on the agenda at a meeting of the European Union\u2019s 27 top leaders shortly after.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">On Friday, the European Union\u2019s executive arm is expected to have an early debate on policies toward China that could help to set the tone for the coming discussions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">European officials still express hope that they might be able to work cooperatively with China to alter trade imbalances, which have become more pronounced as Beijing has dialed up exports to juice economic growth. But they are also mulling more powerful trade and industrial measures to curb China\u2019s growing dominance in sensitive fields.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Cutting back on China could prove profoundly tricky for Europe. Politicians and businesses fear retaliation, and consumers are hooked on what China is selling. Europeans continue to snap up cheaper Chinese goods, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/06\/18\/business\/china-byd-cars-europe.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">especially electric vehicles<\/a>, which the European Union has already tried, unsuccessfully, to stop from flooding their market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">\u201cWe\u2019re not in a good place,\u201d said Rebecca Arcesati,<strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\"> <\/strong>who is based in Brussels for the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a think tank. She noted that European leaders need to contend with voters and with more short-term political considerations \u2014 and that makes it hard to counter the flow from China, especially if Beijing retaliates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">\u201cOur systems were not designed to contend with such a challenge,\u201d Ms. Arcesati said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">China has government subsidies and programs that have strengthened the position of the country\u2019s factories and companies. The government in Beijing has leaned on industry after a property crisis left policymakers needing another engine for growth. And as <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/13\/business\/trump-tariffs-china.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">American tariffs<\/a> made exporting to the United States more complicated for Chinese producers, those factories increased their exports to markets like Europe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">In the first quarter of this year, imports from China into Europe jumped sharply. An analysis of 2026 customs data by the online newsletter Soapbox and the Mercator Institute for China Studies found that China\u2019s trade imbalance with the European Union <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/soapboxtrade.substack.com\/p\/china-posts-its-largest-ever-first\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">reached record levels<\/a> early this year as electric vehicles flooded in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">The jump came as Chinese carmakers faced slumping demand at home and pushed into Europe. At the same time, European consumers <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.acea.auto\/pc-registrations\/new-car-registrations-4-in-q1-2026-battery-electric-19-4-market-share\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">turned to greener alternatives<\/a> as the war in the Middle East <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/europe-ev-sales-leap-iran-war-pushes-up-petrol-pump-prices-2026-05-20\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">pushed up fuel prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">That followed <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/statistics-explained\/index.php?title=EU_trade_with_China_-_latest_developments&amp;gsid=2bdf2815-5721-4737-94a7-288c68b5c843\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">a trade deficit in goods in 2025<\/a> of about $418 billion, based on E.U. figures.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">The combination is threatening European manufacturers and their employees, especially in places like Germany, which has traditionally been a big car and chemical manufacturer and is now struggling to compete.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">As worries mount, Europe has turned to harsher rhetoric and bolder ideas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Emmanuel Macron, the French president and long a China critic, has <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CBeaune\/status\/2057778201846239654\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">called on the European Union<\/a> to create measures that protect strategic industries, similar to ones that the United States has and uses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Pedro S\u00e1nchez, Spain\u2019s prime minister who is often seen as one of the more Beijing-friendly leaders in Europe, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20260413-spain-s-sanchez-seeks-closer-china-ties-amid-strains-with-us\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">said during a recent trip<\/a> to Beijing that the continent needed China \u201cto open up so that Europe does not have to close itself off.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Spain at <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/spain-withdraws-support-eu-china-trade-defenses\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">least initially<\/a> joined France, Italy, Lithuania and the Netherlands recently in <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/eu-china-economy-germany-tougher-trade-weapons\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">preparing a paper<\/a> urging the European Union to respond aggressively, including with new trade tools. While the paper did not single out China by name, it criticized trading partners with \u201csystemic and structural industrial overcapacity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, said that many European leaders have to tread lightly with China out of fear of retaliation. But, he added, their fear of manufacturing losses may come to outweigh that, including in places like Germany.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Europe is already taking some steps to protect itself, including with the European Union\u2019s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, a wide-ranging policy meant to rebuild the bloc\u2019s manufacturing base. The plan\u2019s design <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/policy-brief\/flaws-european-unions-proposed-industrial-accelerator-act-and-how-fix-them#:~:text=In%20particular%2C%20for%20public%20procurement,This%20excludes%20China.\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">would effectively bar<\/a> Chinese companies from benefiting from some key subsidies, helping European-made electric vehicles, in particular.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">That policy has been met with outrage from Beijing, which has denounced the plan as protectionist and warned of retaliation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">But China\u2019s own increasingly aggressive stance on trade has helped the European backlash to intensify.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Last year, China twice <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/13\/business\/china-rare-earths-exports.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">prohibited exports of rare-earth minerals<\/a> and magnets in retaliation to American tariffs. The bans hit Europe, which uses both materials in high-tech and green-energy production.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">The breakdown in supply laid bare to European companies just how dependent they were.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">In April, Beijing unveiled rules giving officials power to examine corporate records, interrogate employees and even prevent executives from leaving China if they were determined to be helping to move supply chains out of the country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">According to a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanchamber.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com\/upload\/documents\/documents\/Exporting_Control_Chinas_New_Strategic_Toolkit[1380].pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">recent assessment<\/a> by the European Chamber of Commerce in China, that move \u201ccould now inflict an unprecedented level of damage on Europe\u2019s economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">China\u2019s pushback has come partly because Beijing senses a less unified front against its trade policies as Washington and Brussels spar, said Noah Barkin, an expert on European-Chinese relations for the Rhodium Group, a research firm.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ac37hb evys1bk0\">Beijing\u2019s \u201cmessage to Europe is: \u2018Your \u201cBest Friend Forever\u201d is gone and even the Americans are seeking stability with us, so don\u2019t test us,\u2019\u201d Mr. Barkin said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kaja Kallas, the top European Union diplomat, recently suggested that ending the continent\u2019s dependence on China was like&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":991922,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3090],"tags":[51,1395,1700,299,1699,64915,272669,212374,275516,16,15],"class_list":["post-991921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-china","tag-economy","tag-europe","tag-european-union","tag-international-trade-and-world-market","tag-kaja-1977","tag-kallas","tag-protectionism-trade","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116657117496435613","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/991921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=991921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/991921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/991922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=991921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=991921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=991921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}