Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Armenia to hold a referendum on whether it wishes to pursue European Union membership or remain within the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), warning that Yerevan cannot remain fully integrated in both structures simultaneously.<\/p>\n
Speaking after the EAEU summit in Astana on Friday, 29 May, Putin argued that it would be \u2018quite logical\u2019 for Armenians to decide their geopolitical future<\/a> through a popular vote. He drew a chilling comparison, telling reporters that the crisis in Ukraine began when Kyiv sought closer integration with the EU. The more than decade-long conflict also has a troubled history involving referendums, as both Crimea and the four Russian-controlled oblasts of eastern Ukraine held votes before their official annexation, the legitimacy of which is widely contested by Western countries.<\/p>\n The summit concluded with a joint declaration by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan warning that Armenia\u2019s EU ambitions create \u2018significant risks\u2019 to the economic security of the EAEU and that Yerevan\u2019s membership could be reviewed later this year.<\/p>\n Armenia\u2019s Future Trajectory on the Ballot<\/strong><\/p>\n The EAEU, founded in 2015 and dominated by Russia, serves as Moscow\u2019s primary economic integration project across the post-Soviet space. Armenia remains deeply tied to both the bloc and the Russian economy. Russia remains Armenia\u2019s largest trading partner, while the country relies heavily on Russian energy imports and hosts a Russian military base on its territory.<\/p>\n Yet relations between Moscow and Yerevan have deteriorated sharply since Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine<\/a> in 2022, and especially following Azerbaijan\u2019s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, ending more than three decades of largely frozen conflict over the disputed region, which had remained under Armenian control until recently. <\/p>\n Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly criticized Russia and the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for failing to protect Armenian interests during the conflict. Armenia subsequently froze its participation in the CSTO, intensified cooperation with Brussels and Washington, and formally launched a process aimed at eventual EU accession.<\/p>\n \u2018Relations between Moscow and Yerevan have deteriorated sharply since Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine\u2019<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n As Armenia approaches its parliamentary elections on 7 June, the geopolitical stakes have become increasingly visible. Recent polling places Pashinyan\u2019s Civil Contract party between 25 and 30 per cent support, ahead of a fragmented opposition largely composed of parties described by the prime minister\u2019s bloc as pro-Russian.<\/p>\n Pashinyan has repeatedly portrayed the election as a choice between Armenia\u2019s future and a return to the political forces associated with the country\u2019s pre-2018 leadership, described as the \u2018old elite\u2019 and characterized by a more Russia-aligned foreign policy. <\/p>\n He has specifically targeted opposition figures including Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, whose Strong Armenia movement has emerged as one of the most prominent challengers. Karapetyan is currently under house arrest<\/a>, while many members of his circle are facing corruption-related criminal investigations\u2014moves his supporters describe as politically motivated.<\/p>\n Western Advance and Russia\u2019s Waning Grip<\/strong><\/p>\n Armenia\u2019s election has increasingly become another battlefield of competing Russian and Western interests, resulting in growing informational pressure on the country just days before the high-stakes vote. Western and Armenian officials have repeatedly accused Moscow of attempting to shape the election campaign through disinformation efforts, economic pressure, and support for pro-Russian political actors.<\/p>\n Reuters reported this week that Western intelligence services believe Russia has backed covert influence operations aimed at slowing Armenia\u2019s westward shift. Moscow denies the allegations. Earlier in April, Pashinyan appealed to the European Commission for assistance in dealing with cyber threats, disinformation, and alleged Russian interference, resulting in the deployment of a \u2018hybrid rapid-response team\u2019<\/a>, prompting accusations of EU interference from Moscow.<\/p>\n Earlier this month, Yerevan also hosted the first-ever EU\u2013Armenia summit and the European Political Community gathering, further signalling the country\u2019s growing integration into European cooperation frameworks.<\/p>\n Putin\u2019s push for a referendum in Armenia came only a day after US President Donald Trump endorsed Pashinyan<\/a>\u2019s re-election bid, describing him as \u2018a great friend and leader\u2019 and offering his \u2018complete and total endorsement\u2019.<\/p>\n The endorsement followed a visit to Yerevan by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during which Washington and Armenia signed a strategic partnership framework, a critical minerals agreement, and a cooperation deal on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)<\/a>. The proposed corridor would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia, potentially transforming regional trade routes while reducing Russian leverage over South Caucasus transit networks.<\/p>\n \u2018For Moscow\u2026Armenia\u2019s gradual realignment represents a much broader strategic challenge\u2019<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Trump directly linked his endorsement to the project, arguing that TRIPP would help unlock energy and transport links stretching from Central Asia towards Europe and global markets.<\/p>\n\n
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