Crimea has historically brought Russia into conflict with its neighbours and the West, notably in the mid 19th century.
When the peninsula was annexed by Moscow in 2014 a clash was averted when Nato decided to tut-tut but otherwise turn a blind eye. Some sanctions were imposed but the message to the Kremlin was clear: its illegal seizure would not be challenged. A referendum was held that sought to legitimise the forcible acquisition and Crimea’s incorporation into the Russian state.
But the Ukrainians have rightly never accepted the theft of a chunk of their country and especially since the invasion in 2022 have made life hard for the Russian occupiers. Latterly, with the prodigious deployment of drones, Kyiv has forced Crimea to its knees and the declaration of a state of emergency by the Moscow-installed authorities.
Ukrainian strikes have shut petrol stations and caused power cuts across the peninsula. Aerial attacks on logistics chains and oil facilities have crippled activity on the peninsula and in the port city of Sevastopol, home of the Black Sea Fleet.
Its connections to Russia have effectively been severed. Fuel and cargo cannot be brought in as a result. Crimea had been a popular tourist destination even during the war, but all the beaches have been closed and summer effectively cancelled.
Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s defence minister, said: “It looks like in the nearest time, Crimea will become an island.”
While this might be a cause for celebration in Kyiv and welcomed in western capitals as further evidence of the failure of Russia’s ill-judged aggression, the consequences have yet to be felt. How will a beleaguered Vladimir Putin react? He has seen Ukrainian drones attacking targets deep into Russia, including in St Petersburg during an international conference. He can no longer pretend to his people that they are winning this war.
The worry is that Putin panics and, egged on by hard-liners, does something particularly stupid, such as escalating attacks on Kyiv or even using tactical nuclear weapons. Russia’s foreign ministry has threatened to launch what it called “systematic strikes” on military targets, without specifying what this meant. Nato leaders who meet in Ankara next month need to be ready for a potential showdown with Moscow – and that includes Donald Trump.