I’ve put together a series of charts highlighting the trends of Russian daily losses in various categories by Quarter during the entire length of their war against Ukraine since 2022 (based on the daily loss reports issued by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence), together with a more detailed monthly comparison over the past 15 months.
The title chart illustrates the exponential rise in Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia’s increasingly beleaguered logistical supply vehicles, particularly in the last few months, and why they may be nearing a state of collapse in their ability to sustain military operations in the not-too-distant future.
Ukraine Ministry of Defence data, compiled by Irontortoise
Note in particular how Russian supply vehicle losses averaged well under 50 per day during the first two years of the war, then slowly rose to a bit more than 100 per day by the first half of 2025, only to sink back below 100 per day in the second half of 2025 — but then rapidly rose to above 150 per day in the first quarter of 2026 before positively exploding in the last couple of months, including well over 400 per day during June!
Ukraine Ministry of Defence data, compiled by Irontortoise
This third chart illustrates the actual day-by-day loss in Russian supply vehicles over the last three months, together with a 7-day moving average, which indicates Russian losses are actually nearing 500 per day during the second half of June.
By way of comparison, here are some similar charts for Russian daily military equipment losses (tanks and AFVs versus artillery):
Ukraine Ministry of Defence data, compiled by Irontortoise
Note how in the first few months of the campaign, Ukraine naturally had to focus on destroying as many Russian tanks and AFVs as they could while leaving Russian artillery relatively unscathed, but once those prewar stockpiles had been largely depleted, Ukraine was able to start hunting Russian artillery behind the lines with ever increasing efficiency.
And then there is the manpower issue along the front lines:
Ukraine Ministry of Defence, compiled by Irontortoise
And though average daily Russian casualties have yet to reach the heights seen during the last quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025, they too are definitely on the upswing — with June seeing over 1300 daily casualties for the first time since early 2025.
If Ukraine can continue to inflict this level of damage or worse on the Russian army and its logistics, it’s difficult to see how Russia can sustain its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine for much longer, particularly when combined with Ukraine’s increasingly effective long-range strikes against Russia’s military-industrial economy, and especially its extremely vulnerable petroleum infrastructure.
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