About four months ago, the war between Russia and Ukraine changed dramatically. Ukraine suddenly gained the upper hand, bombing major oil facilities and huge storage depots belonging to “Wildberries” – the Russian Amazon. Hitting Russian with blows to their energy and to a major provider of goods.
What happened four months ago? A war in Iran. During that war, the Gulf states were hit by Iranian drones. Almost immediately, Zelensky went to visit the Gulf states, where he reached deals with each one to provide it with drones, protection, technology, expertise, and more. In return, Ukraine got a free flow of money – the billions it needed and had been begging Trump and the EU to provide – plus oil and other things it required.
That is probably what changed the entire conflict. And now it is time for the Gulf states to do the same with Iran.
As I’ve written before, the Gulf states should pick up the bill for the war against the Iranian regime, or face an Iranian bully for the next decade.
Trump is frustrated with the situation, as he understands that Netanyahu dragged him into a quagmire with no positive outcome. I should mention that I did not think going to war with Iran was necessary or smart, but the current situation, in which Iran wins, is worse. Toppling the Iranian regime is possible. It only depends on how much you are willing to invest in it.
The Iranian regime is playing a great game of poker, while its offensive and defensive capability probably amounts to 1,000 missiles at best, plus drones. But its greatest source of deterrence is the missiles. If the US and Israel absorb some of them with interceptors (yes, these are limited) and use that time to locate launch sites and launchers, that is the way to beat the Iranian regime. With no missiles left as deterrence, it will be very difficult for the Iranians to keep going.
Netanyahu, who for more than 30 years has always used the “Iranian nuclear threat” to instill fear in his voters, now finds himself trailing in the polls as elections draw closer. No doubt a successful war with Iran is his best route to winning another term.
It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu and his supporters in the US and in President Trump’s circle can convince the American President to go for another round with Iran, with very little certainty of the outcome and with rising prices ahead of the midterms.
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Co-authored by Tzvi Gottlieb & Anastasia Sander.
Attorney, former communications director for the Israeli government, lobbyist, strategy, former reporter for Galei Tzahal and Haaretz, former Shaliach to the US, CEO of The Israeli TV & Film Producers Association, Campaign manager for several parties and incumbents. Led several social causes, organizations, causes and unions. Life-long volunteer and student.