A veteran diplomat points to Korea and South Asia for clues, while warning that any future agreement must avoid the weaknesses of Minsk.
The Russian-Ukrainian war will most likely end not with the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty, but with the establishment of a lasting and monitored ceasefire. This assessment was voiced by Robert Serry, the first Dutch ambassador to Ukraine from 1992 to 1996.
In an interview, the diplomat stressed that the cessation of hostilities is not the same as full-fledged peace. In his view, the consequences of the war significantly complicate the possibility of reaching a broad peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
It will most likely end with a ceasefire rather than peace. This is a very important distinction. I consider it unlikely that, after everything that has happened, Russia and Ukraine will be able to conclude a full-fledged peace treaty. The best one can hope for is a durable ceasefire.
– Robert Serry
Why a ceasefire could become a realistic scenario
Robert Serry recalled other protracted international conflicts. In particular, he mentioned relations between North and South Korea, as well as between India and Pakistan, where hostilities were halted through ceasefire agreements rather than a final resolution of all disputes.
The diplomat also drew attention to the non-aggression agreement between India and Pakistan. In his opinion, a similar commitment could be important for Ukraine as it moves toward membership in the European Union and possibly NATO.
Serry noted that countries seeking to join such alliances cannot declare an intention to resume war. Territorial issues, he said, must be resolved exclusively through peaceful means.
Lessons of the Minsk agreements for Ukraine
At the same time, Robert Serry warned against repeating the approaches embedded in the Minsk agreements. He stressed that any new agreement must not entail unilateral concessions by Ukraine and should include an effective mechanism for monitoring compliance with the ceasefire.
This must not be a new “Minsk.” Under “Minsk,” Ukraine was required to make unilateral concessions, amend its Constitution, and so on. I very much hope that the war will not end with a repetition of the “Minsk scenario.” What is needed instead is a genuinely monitored ceasefire. One of the main lessons of “Minsk” for me is that a weak monitoring mechanism makes any truce fragile. Therefore, any future ceasefire regime must be truly reliable. After that, the war stops. And I am less pessimistic than others about Russia sooner or later starting another war. But on one condition: Ukraine and its army must remain strong. That is something that cannot be allowed to slip away.
– Robert Serry
According to the diplomat, the durability of a future ceasefire will depend not only on the terms of the agreement but also on Ukraine’s ability to maintain a strong army. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for his part, stated that Ukraine and its partners have a shared plan to end the war.