A combine harvester loads a truck with wheat on a field of the Skala farming company in Kolyvansky district of Novosibirsk region, Russia, August 13, 2026. (Alexandr Kryazhev/AP)
Crop prices are headed for their biggest monthly gain in 14 years as Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupts Black Sea exports, threatening to push up the cost of food worldwide.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 major commodities, had surged more than 13% in August as of Friday. That would mark its sharpest monthly increase since July 2012, Bloomberg reported.
Wheat has been among the biggest drivers, recently reaching a three-year high as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ships and ports slow exports from the Black Sea.
Russia and Ukraine together supply more than one-quarter of global wheat exports and are also major exporters of barley, corn and sunflower oil. The disruption is leaving importers with few readily available alternatives.
“Unless Black Sea exports begin flowing again, the market increasingly looks to be dealing with a multi-season supply issue,” Lachstock Consulting said.
Ukraine’s unsold grain is piling up, while its Agriculture Ministry expects farmers to reduce winter-wheat planting for the 2027 season. Russia, meanwhile, is reportedly preparing to intensify its military campaign after concluding that peace negotiations have stalled.
Other exporters may struggle to cover the shortfall. Lachstock said Argentina faces questions about grain quality, Canada has limited supplies, Australia has export constraints and U.S. wheat is increasingly expensive.
Extreme weather is adding to the pressure. Heat waves have damaged corn crops in the United States and Europe, while a strengthening El Niño threatens cocoa, sugar and other crops into next year.
Sugar futures in New York have risen about 20% in August, their biggest monthly gain since 2015. India recently allowed some duty-free imports as tight supplies collided with stronger demand ahead of the country’s festival season.
The crop surge comes as the Iran war pushes up energy, transportation and fertilizer costs — all major expenses for farmers and food producers.
Higher commodity prices do not appear on supermarket shelves immediately. But if elevated prices persist, they will move through the supply chain as farmers, millers, food manufacturers and distributors pass along higher costs.
Wheat and barley increases could make bread, cereal and animal feed more expensive, while higher corn prices could raise the cost of meat and dairy. More expensive sunflower oil could also lift prices for cooking oils and a broad range of packaged foods.
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