Russian leader Vladimir Putin reportedly fears that ending the war in Ukraine before achieving his maximalist objectives, including the complete occupation of the Donbas region, could spark a backlash from Russia’s elite that may ultimately lead to his overthrow.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin fears that ending the war in Ukraine before achieving his maximalist objectives, including the complete occupation of the Donbas region, could spark a backlash from Russia’s elite that may ultimately lead to his overthrow, according to The Economist.
A Kremlin insider recalled that Putin said “they will hang me” at one point when discussing the consequences of ending the war without achieving his stated maximalist goals.
The Economist reported that Putin is guided by the belief that a negotiated end to the conflict would be seen as a sign of weakness and that a weak leader cannot survive in Russia. As a result, he believes he cannot afford to make concessions.
The reporting is in line with remarks by Estonian spymaster Kaupo Rosin earlier this week that a decision to stop the war now or in the near future carries the risk of making Putin appear weak.
That, according to The Economist, means Putin appears set on escalation either by intensifying attacks on Ukraine or by expanding the war beyond Ukraine.
The report comes at a time when observers are increasingly arguing that Putin is in a position where he does not have any good options. They say that after pursuing the war for more than five years, he cannot find an offramp without either victory or personal defeat. The continuation of the war is further complicated by mounting challenges: long-range Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, a ballooning fiscal crisis, a stagnant economy, rising public discontent, and growing disgruntlement among the elite.
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While Putin maintains a firm grip on power and sits at the top of the system, observers say he is not immune to power struggles. Rosin said the perceptions of the elite matter more than public discontent in Russia and revealed that voices within those circles urging Putin to reconsider pursuing the war indefinitely “are becoming stronger and stronger”.
“More important is what people who have access to money, weapons and information think. In these circles, there is no more talk about total victory. People are discussing different scenarios and mainly how to end this [war with Ukraine] in a proper way,” Rosin said in an interview with The Telegraph.
‘Mood among Russian elite grows more sour’
The Kremlin is concerned about the erosion of public silence over the war and growing disgruntlement among the elite, according to The Economist.
As Firstpost has previously reported, criticism has begun bubbling up among Russians in forms that would have been unimaginable a few years ago.
A Kremlin insider quoted by The Economist said the biggest concern among the elite is not so much the economy or the lack of military success, but the time lost to the war. According to the insider, many are increasingly concluding that, whatever the outcome, nearly five years of war amounts to failure.
“There is a growing feeling that the tsar is naked,” a member of the Russian elite told The Economist.
The report noted that Russia’s system has a high tolerance for violence but is unforgiving of failure. That, it said, is why Putin believes that ending the war without achieving even his minimum objective of taking all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region would put him physically at risk.