Sept. 1, 2026
It has been four and a half years since Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with attacks on both sides escalating. The key to ending the war lies with Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. NHK looks at how their relationship is influencing efforts to end the war, drawing on analysis from a former Japanese ambassador to Russia.
No end to war in sight
Even now, attacks by both sides, including those using drones, continue unabated.
According to the United Nations, more than 430 civilians were killed in Ukraine this July, the highest toll since the immediate aftermath of the invasion.
Ukraine is also stepping up attacks deep into Russian territory, targeting oil-related facilities and logistics hubs.
Russian President Putin hinted at still more attacks, saying: “The Kyiv regime has set itself the goal of damaging our economy. What has it done? It opened this Pandora’s box all on its own.”
Russian attack on Ukraine
During a ceremony celebrating Ukrainian Independence Day in August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his defiance of Russia, stating that there is absolutely no doubt that Ukraine will remain an independent nation forever. He added that Ukrainians will not become like cobblestones trampled underfoot by emperors or leaders.
There is no end in sight for the war.
Initial Hopes Pinned on Trump
Both Russia and Ukraine are pinning their hopes on mediation by President Trump.
Ukrainian citizen
“I think this is a chance to end the war quickly. He may be able to put pressure on Putin,” a man in Kyiv said.
In early 2025, when the current Trump administration, which advocates “peace through strength,” took office, some Ukrainian citizens expressed hope that President Trump might be able to persuade President Putin.
However, that has not been the case.
NHK took a look at conversations between President Putin and President Trump to see what impact they may have had on the war.
According to announcements from both countries, there has been one in-person summit so far and more than 10 telephone conversations.
Example 1: Face-to-Face Meeting in Alaska (August 2025)
A face-to-face meeting held in August 2025 in Anchorage, Alaska, was the first such gathering of the U.S. and Russian leaders since the invasion began in 2022.
The previous month, President Trump spoke about sanctions against Russia and told reporters, regarding the deaths of civilians in Ukraine, “I think it’s disgusting. They’re also losing people now in the towns and cities because Putin’s hitting them with rockets. No, I think it’s disgraceful.”
So expectations rose regarding President Trump’s efforts to bring the war to an end.
Meeting in Alaska
However, President Trump laid out a red carpet right up to the Russian government plane and welcomed President Putin to the United States with a smile.
At the news conference following the meeting, President Putin made no mention of a ceasefire and merely reiterated his previous position.
President Putin’s news conference
“All the root causes must be eliminated. Russia’s concern must be taken into account,” Putin said.
Since this meeting, Russia has repeatedly used the phrase “the spirit of Anchorage” and has increasingly asserted that there was an “agreement” with the U.S. to end the fighting.
It appears Russia believes that how the fighting ends should be decided not by Ukraine or Europe, but by the U.S. and Russia.
Example 2: Phone Call (October 2025)
It is possible that President Putin has used not only the face-to-face meeting with President Trump, but also phone calls, to Russia’s advantage.
Tomahawk missile
As of the fall of 2025, the focus was on whether the U.S. would supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
The Tomahawk is a cruise missile launched from land, ships, or submarines. According to U.S. media, it has a range of over 1,600 kilometers and is capable of precision strikes. The U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War says that at least 1,655 military-related facilities – including the Russian capital of Moscow, as well as air force bases and drone manufacturing plants – would fall in range from within Ukrainian territory.
President Trump initially stated that if this war were not resolved, he might tell President Putin that he would supply Tomahawks to Ukraine, thereby hinting at the possibility of such a transfer.
However, the day before a scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskyy on this matter, a telephone conversation between President Putin and President Trump was arranged at Russia’s suggestion.
After the two-and-a-half-hour phone call, President Trump stated that he would prefer not to consider the Tomahawk issue, as it could potentially escalate the situation. He conveyed to President Zelenskyy his decision to hold off on providing them.
Looking closely at the details of the phone call, it becomes clear that not only the Tomahawks but also other topics that Russia would likely be unwilling to accept, such as an immediate ceasefire, have effectively disappeared from the discussion, reports say.
Interview with a former Japanese ambassador to Russia
Kozuki Toyohisa, former Japanese ambassador to Russia
We asked Kozuki Toyohisa, a former ambassador to Russia, about President Trump’s apparent shift toward positions that could be interpreted as pro-Russian following his meeting with President Putin.
Kozuki served as ambassador in Moscow for eight years. He attended talks between former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and President Putin aimed at concluding a peace treaty with Russia, and has observed Putin’s negotiating style firsthand.
Kozuki said that President Putin’s strategy is evident not only in the content of the phone conversation but also in its timing.
“There is a calculated strategy behind the timing of each meeting, it’s about how to keep Trump on board. President Putin comes from a background in foreign negotiations with the KGB and has been trained to gather information without making his counterpart wary,” Kozuki said.
“He is highly adaptable, studies his counterparts thoroughly, and excels at winning them over. He is known for varying his approach, sometimes maintaining a neutral expression, other times greeting people with a smile.”
Kozuki noted that communicating through unofficial channels is another hallmark of President Putin’s diplomacy.
Last November, U.S. media reported that Kirill Dmitriev, head of a Russian government-affiliated fund and also a Special Presidential Representative, and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, were leading discussions on a peace proposal.
Dmitriev reportedly studied at prestigious universities such as Stanford University in the U.S., and later worked at major financial institution Goldman Sachs.
Amid continuing surges in crude oil prices due to the escalating tensions over the situation in Iran, it has been reported that Dmitriev, through visits to the U.S., may have been holding discussions with officials in the Trump administration aimed at easing sanctions against Russia.
Former ambassador Kozuki
“One of the distinctive features of Putin’s diplomacy is his skill at manipulating his counterparts through unofficial channels. Special Envoy Witkoff fits perfectly into that pattern. I believe he has met with Putin about eight times so far,” Kozuki said.
Kozuki added: “Then, after being brainwashed, he returns to Washington to speak with Trump. This process has further complicated the issue. Furthermore, Dmitriev is likely using economic incentives as a bargaining chip, suggesting that Russia will support the U.S. side. This kind of unofficial approach is not orthodox diplomacy.”
The motivation behind President Putin’s use of these tactics is said to be his desire to keep the U.S. on Russia’s side at all costs, Kozuki said.
However, with the situation in Iran remaining unstable and the U.S. midterm elections looming, President Trump himself is unlikely to have the bandwidth to focus on Ukraine.
Russia also has elections for the lower house of parliament in September. And this August, President Putin visited Japan’s Northern Territories for the first time, a move seen as signaling his unwillingness to compromise on territorial issues. Russia controls the islands. Japan claims them.
President Zelenskyy hopes to force Russia to end the war by this winter, but the situation remains dire.
“Putin, too, is at a loss as to how long he can continue this war,” Kozuki said.
“However, he must bring it to a close while saving face. In most wars, there’s usually a mediating country. Given the need for a mediator, he’s hoping that Trump might do something to help.”
Sasaki Futo
NHK World
Correspondent
Arimizu Takashi
NHK World
Correspondent