Gripen fighter jets for Ukraine
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on May 28, 2026 at a press conference in Uppsala, Sweden that Ukraine intends to acquire an initial batch of up to 20 Gripen E/F and that Sweden intends to donate up to 16 Gripen C/D to Ukraine. The Swedish Government has also announced the allocation of means to replace the donated Gripen aircraft.
According to a SAAB news release, the next steps for the Ukrainian and Swedish authorities will be to complete the negotiations regarding Ukraine’s acquisition of Gripen E/F, which is expected to take place in batches, and Saab will support in this process. Dialogue regarding Sweden’s replacement of the donated capability will be initiated soon.
During President Zelenskyy’s visit to Linköping, Sweden in October 2025, Sweden and Ukraine signed a letter of intent on cooperation related to air defence, laying the foundation for today’s announcement.
Saab’s Gripen fighter aircraft is designed to meet advanced threats in demanding environments. It can take off and land at short distances and can operate from temporary runways or roads, enabling dispersed operations and high availability. Gripen is cost-effective and easy to operate and maintain.
The Butterfly Effect
Will Ukraine’s acquisition of the Gripen change the dynamics of the Russia–Ukraine war?
Huge selection of Sukhoi diecast models to choose from – get yours here.
Eric Wicklund, former US Navy Operations Specialist, explains on Quora;
“For want of a nail, a war was lost.”
‘It’s an old and lengthy parable (paraphrased above), demonstrating how a small thing can make a huge difference.
‘For Ukraine, the Gripen may be the nail that is found, the Butterfly Effect*, or the straw that broke the Camel’s back.
‘To understand why, we must understand why the Ukrainian Air Force has offered only a small effect upon the war, very small compared to drones.
‘Russia flies Su-35 and MiG-31 combat air patrol (CAP) fighters armed with hypersonic long ranged air-to-air missiles like the R-37M. These aircraft fly safely under the umbrella of Russia S-300/400 air defenses. Ukraine’s fighters cannot safely approach Russian lines without being engaged by either Russian ground based air defense (GBAD) or Russian CAP fighters. Therefore, the Ukrainian fighters cannot support Ukrainian troops on the ground with ground target strikes on Russian troop positions.
‘Therefore, Ukraine’s F-16s and Mirage 2000s, while very good aircraft, are most useful versus Russian drone strikes, and not in the close air support (CAS) role.
MiG-31
The catalyst Ukraine needs to win the war against Russia
‘What the Gripen (supplied with the long-ranged Meteor air-to-air missile) can do is: finally threaten the Russian CAP flights (composed of Su-35/Mig-31s armed with the R-37M) and push them out of position. The threat of the Meteor missile is something Russian pilots must respect and they must turn away to avoid getting hit. Gripens can fire these missiles from outside the engagement range of Russian GBAD like the S-400. Thus, all the things that give Russian aviation advantages, dry up with the appearance of Gripens armed with the Meteor missile.
‘Suddenly, with Gripens, Ukraine’s Air Force will be much more effective at protecting Ukrainian troops, and Ukrainian ground strikes are better able to attack Russian troop positions. Drones have worked well for Ukraine, but Ukrainian aviation could destroy Russian positions in larger numbers and quicker than Ukrainian drones.’
Wicklund concludes;
‘Would this alone win the war? No, it won’t, but it might be the catalyst that Ukraine needs, the nail that Ukraine needed to win the war.’
* Butterfly Effect = The butterfly effect is a concept from chaos theory stating that small, seemingly insignificant changes in initial conditions can lead to massive, unpredictable variations in the long-term state of a system.
Photo credit: SAAB and Dmitriy Pichugin via Wikimedia Commons