History repeatedly demonstrates that logistics determine victory or defeat. Napoleon learnt this in Russia. Hitler learnt it in Russia. Military campaigns are won not simply through courage or firepower, but through the ability to sustain forces in the field. As Russian supply challenges grow and Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities improve, Putin risks joining a long line of leaders whose strategic ambitions exceeded their logistical realities.
Today, Moscow has become a critical battleground in the wider contest between Putin and Zelensky. Every drone strike that penetrates Russian airspace carries a psychological effect far beyond its physical damage. The Kremlin faces an impossible dilemma. Every air-defence system moved to protect Moscow is one less system available to support operations in Ukraine. Every concession to homeland defence weakens the front line.
This increasingly resembles Putin’s Waterloo. Even in Washington, patience appears to be wearing thin. President Trump’s frustrations with the lack of progress towards ending the war are becoming more visible, eroding assumptions in Moscow that American pressure would inevitably favour Russian interests.