The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014, as households grew more pessimistic about both current conditions and the six-month outlook. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 89.2, according to Reuters.
The Present Situation Index, which tracks consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions, dropped 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, which measures the six-month outlook for income, business, and labor conditions, fell 5.9 points to 63.6 — its third consecutive monthly decline. Net views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, the Conference Board said.
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs.”
The survey period ran September 1–23, a stretch that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Conference Board said. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median expectation climbed to 5.1%. The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%.
For the first time since the question was introduced four years ago, more respondents said their family’s current financial situation was “bad” than “good,” the Conference Board noted. The share of consumers who believe a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat likely” also rose.
The September decline continued a slide that began months earlier. The index fell for a second consecutive month in August, slipping 0.8 points to 88.6 — its weakest reading since January at the time — with the Expectations Index already in negative territory. That followed a third consecutive monthly decline in July, when the index dropped to 90.8. The Conference Board noted that an Expectations Index reading below 80 is generally associated with a recession within the next year.
Confidence fell in September across all political affiliations — Democrats, Republicans, and Independents — and on a six-month moving average basis trended down across all age groups and nearly all income groups, the Conference Board said.