Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photos: Getty Images
The Democratic blue wave we’ve been observing from a distance throughout much of 2026 is nearing the shore. And despite a lot of close races and some questions about polling accuracy and one very weird situation in Alaska, polls and forecasts seem to confirm Democrats are sure to flip the House and are a good bet to take over the Senate, too. But it may take a while to confirm that result on and beyond November 3.
There isn’t enough public polling available in individual House races to provide a rigorous look at public opinion at the district level. But the forecasters who utilize the available (and sometimes private) polling along with historical data and national trends agree that Democrats should easily net the three seats necessary to take away Speaker Mike Johnson’s gavel.
Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR forecast gives Democrats a 95.1 percent chance of controlling the House and projects they will hold 240 seats in the next Congress, a net gain of 25 seats. On a more granular level:
• FLIPR shows 199 districts as “Solid D,” another 27 as “Likely D,” and six more as toss-ups, producing little opportunity for Republican upsets.
• Race to the White House gives Democrats a 93.9 percent chance of flipping the House and projects they will win 235 seats, a net gain of 20.
• The more cautious Decision Desk HQ rates Democratic odds of a flip at 82 percent (the highest percentage it has shown for the entire cycle) and projects them to have 238 seats, a net gain of 23.
• Finally, the authoritative (and very cautious) Cook Political Report says as of October 30, “The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats flip between 12 and 25 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 227 to 240 seats in 2027.”
Taking control of the U.S. Senate is a dicier proposition, but Democrats are advancing on a very broad front.
Silver Bulletin’s polling averages show Democrats leading in seven contests in which winning would flip a Senate seat: Alaska (Peltola leads Sullivan by 3.7 percentage points), Iowa (Turek leads Hinson by 0.9 points), Kansas (Hamilton leads Marshall by 1.4 points), Maine (Jackson leads Collins by 2.5 points), North Carolina (Cooper leads Whatley by 10.2 points), Ohio (Brown leads Husted by 3.1 points), and Texas (Talarico leads Paxton by 3.0 points). Additionally, in Nebraska, Democratic-backed independent Dan Osborn leads Republican Pete Ricketts by 0.3 points. The only Democratic-held seat thought to be in some peril is Michigan, but polls there show El-Sayed leading Rogers by 3.7 points.
All these Democratic leads are shadowed by talk of a possible systemic polling error: On October 30, the Washington Post all but disavowed a poll it had conducted in Kansas showing Adam Hamilton with a ten-point lead because of the struggle its pollsters had in convincing Republicans to take and complete the survey. So to take the polls with a grain of salt, four of the eight prospective flips outlined above involve polling leads of three percent or less. If that’s how it goes, Democrats would still net four seats and flip the Senate. Then again, Alaska’s Republican governor is threatening to withhold state certification of any win by Mary Peltola pending investigation of allegations that her staff “stacked” the ballot with phony candidates. And even if he doesn’t deny certification, the Senate itself could refuse to seat her. So Democrats should not be complacent about controlling the upper chamber.
It’s worth noting that polling error favoring Republicans is a possibility, too, and there are GOP-held Senate seats in the danger zone if that transpires. In South Carolina, per Silver Bulletin polling averages, Darline Graham leads Annie Andrews by 1.5 percentage points. And hyperoptimistic Democrats point to Florida (where Moody leads Nixon by 6.5 points) and Mississippi (where Hyde-Smith leads Colom by 6.6 points) as possible high ground for a giant blue wave.
Ultimately FLIPR gives Democrats a 77.7 percent chance to take control of the Senate (projecting a net gain of six seats), which is nearly identical to Race to the White House’s 77.4 percent odds (also projecting a net gain of six seats). Decision Desk HQ has lower odds (62 percent) of a Democratic flip, projecting a net gain of five seats.
Putting it all together, FLIPR shows a 77.5 percent chance that Democrats will control Congress as a whole, while Decision Desk HQ posits a 60 percent chance of a Democratic sweep. But there’s enough uncertainty that all of us on Election Night, and probably during a contentious aftermath, will live in “tension city” — as George H.W. Bush would have put it.
Sign Up for the Intelligencer Newsletter
Daily news about the politics, business, and technology shaping our world.
Vox Media, LLC Terms and Privacy Notice