The 2026 midterm elections are on Tuesday, and multiple states are seeing incredibly competitive races that could shape the makeup of the U.S. Congress in 2027.
While there are important races to watch, it is also important to understand what happened before the election season that led us to where we are now.
Redistricting battle
In the summer of 2025, President Donald Trump requested that Texas redraw its congressional map to be more favorable to Republicans. This kicked off a redistricting battle that saw numerous states attempt to redraw their congressional maps, including Virginia. While Virginians voted in favor of a redraw in April 2026, the referendum was nullified by the Supreme Court of Virginia. California held a similar referendum in 2025 that passed successfully.
Multiple Republican-led states redrew their maps for an expected one or two-seat gain in their favor, such as Tennessee, Louisiana and North Carolina. In total, Republicans took the advantage in the redistricting battles; Democrats believe that a strong midterm environment could still result in them taking back the House.
House races to watch
There are multiple seats in the House to watch to get an idea as to whether Democrats will underperform or overperform this year, with Virginia’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts being at the top of the list for many.
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District sees incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Wittman facing a challenge from Democrat Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth’s attorney for Henrico County. It is a district that has not voted for a Democrat since the 1970s, but narrowly voted for Gov. Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 election. If it flips, it is an early sign that Democrats may be in for a good performance on election night. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently lists this race as a lean Democratic.
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is also highly watched, as it has flipped parties four times in the last two decades. It is a rematch between former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria and incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, who beat Luria in 2022. Trump narrowly won the district in 2024, but swung towards Spanberger in the 2025 election. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently lists this race as lean Democratic.
New York’s 17th Congressional District is one of the few seats held by a Republican in a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024. Incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is facing a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley. Tens of millions of dollars have been spent in this race, making it one of the most expensive this cycle. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently lists this race as a lean Republican.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District is currently held by Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who won in 2024 after then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin declined to seek another term to run successfully for the U.S. Senate. He is facing up against Democrat William Lawrence – a progressive who co-founded the Sunrise Movement. This race is seen as a test of how well a progressive Democrat can perform in a swing district. It is also one of the most expensive House races this cycle. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently lists this race as a lean Democratic.
Republican spending advantage
In this year’s Senate races, Republicans have a massive spending advantage, particularly in a given set of battleground states. As reported by The New York Times, Republicans are outspending Democrats by over $320 million dollars in the seven races identified as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. Elon Musk contributed nearly $190 million alone to boost Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for Senate in Texas, as reported by The Texas Tribune.
While Republicans have a spending advantage, individual Democratic nominees have managed to outraise Republicans by large margins in nearly every battleground race, as found by NPR. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas James Talarico has raised over $120 million in his race, which gives him the best fundraising numbers this cycle.
While spending advantages are important to note, money ultimately does not decide elections. Numerous primary winners were outspent by their opponents this cycle, and Kamala Harris outraised Trump in the 2024 election, which she lost.
Most competitive Senate races
NBC lists 10 races as either a toss-up or leaning toward a given party. Six others are identified as likely towards a given party. We will be looking at the five races defined as lean or toss-up.
Alaska
Alaska’s Senate race was put on the board once former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola decided to run. Peltola was first elected to Alaska’s At-large Congressional District in a special election in 2022, becoming the first Democrat to hold the seat since the 1970s. She was later defeated in 2024 by about 2.5 percentage points. On the same ballot, Trump won the state by over 13.
Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan was first elected in 2014 and reelected in 2020, when he outperformed Trump. Republicans hope that the state’s Republican lean can help Sullivan, and Democrats hope that Peltola’s record of overperformance can flip the seat.
Alaska is also one of the few states in the nation with a ranked-choice voting system, and to add to the drama, a second Republican also named Dan Sullivan will be on the ballot. Legal battles are already underway regarding this race, which you can find more about here.
Iowa
Democrats began targeting Iowa early on with hopes that they could reverse the inroads that Republicans have made in the state since 2016. Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024.
The race features Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson facing off against Democratic State Rep. and Paralympian Josh Turek. Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst chose not to seek reelection.
Both nominees have made bipartisanship and moderation themes of their campaign.
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, right, and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Adam Hamilton participate in a debate at WDAF TV in Kansas City, Mo., Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, Pool) (Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)
Kansas
Kansas was overlooked for a large portion of this election cycle, until a New York Times report outlined a controversy surrounding incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall that was released in September. The report details Marshall suing over 700 patients in his time as a doctor. After this, numerous polls were released that showed a tight race between him and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, the senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection.
Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since the 1930s, and the state voted for Trump by over 16 points in 2024.
Ohio
Similar to Iowa, Ohio was an early target for Democrats, as former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown announced his decision to run in August 2025. Brown had lost his previous race against now-Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024. This year, he is facing up against Sen. John Husted, who was appointed to fill this seat after JD Vance was elected as vice president.
Trump won the state in 2024 by over 11 points. On the same ticket, Brown only lost his race by four.
This is a special election, meaning the winner is only elected to fill the remainder of this term. This seat will be up for reelection again in 2028.
Rep. James Talarico (left) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (right). (KSAT)
Texas
It may seem like a shock for a race in Texas to be considered a toss-up. Texas voted for Trump by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and the last Democrat to hold this specific Senate seat was Lyndon B. Johnson.
Despite this, a myriad of factors have resulted in the state being competitive. Republicans had a bruising primary fight between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. After Cornyn narrowly defeated Paxton in the first round of voting, Trump endorsed Paxton prior to the runoff election. Paxton went on to beat Cornyn by over 27 points in the runoff, but Cornyn never endorsed Paxton.
Democratic State Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in his respective primary, which did not have a runoff. Talarico has raised over $120 million since the primary and has run a campaign that leans heavily into his faith. Paxton has faced numerous allegations regarding corruption and was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives in 2023.
Democrats hope a favorable midterm environment and Paxton’s political baggage will be enough to turn the tide in the Lone Star State.
Other Senate races expected to be competitive are Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire, which NBC rates as lean Democratic, and Nebraska and South Carolina, which NBC rates as lean Republican. For NBC’s ratings on all Senate and gubernatorial elections, click here.
To read more about the midterm elections in Virginia, click here.
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