Editor’s note: Sheng Peng is a regular contributor to NBC Sports California’s Sharks coverage. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.

What should the Sharks expect from Ivar Stenberg in his rookie NHL season?

Two NHL scouts, who watched San Jose’s No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 draft closely last season in the SHL, World Juniors and World Championships shared their predictions.

Also, what will it take for the 18-year-old Swedish winger to win the Calder Trophy?

Scout No. 1 is bullish about Stenberg and his role in his rookie campaign.

“I’d be happy with 50-55 points,” he said. “For sure, a top six [for the Sharks].”

Scout No. 2, however, thinks the teen will have more of a learning curve.

“He gets 30-40 points. Top nine and PP2, at times,” he said. “Barracuda, at times.”

Stenberg is eligible to shuttle between the NHL and AHL this year.

In their rookie seasons, 2025’s No. 2 pick, Michael Misa, saw some AHL time on a conditioning assignment, and 2023’s No. 4 pick, Will Smith, arguably could’ve used some time down there. The No. 1 pick in 2024, Macklin Celebrini, of course, was a different animal.

In addition, unlike Celebrini, Smith and Misa’s rookie campaigns, these Sharks are expecting to make the Stanley Cup playoffs, so Stenberg should have a higher bar to stay in the lineup.

What will keep Stenberg in the NHL all year?

Scout No. 1 likes Stenberg’s complete game.

“Speed and natural offensive sense and skill with no real deficiency that would keep him from playing,” he said. “Like no coach could complain about what he brings. You can find a spot for him anywhere.”

Stenberg doesn’t appear to have quite the red flags about his defense, pace or strength that most 18-year-olds possess, even those that exceptional prospects like Smith and Misa had.

But Stenberg also might not have quite the ability that allowed the likes of recent No. 1 picks like Matthew Schaefer, Celebrini and Connor Bedard to flourish as 18-year-olds in the best league in the world.

“It’s not blow-you-away, high-end [skill] at times like other top prospects,” Scout No. 1 said, “but it’s just a solid up-and-down tool-set.”

That’s not a knock on the fabulously talented Stenberg, it’s more a statement of the rarefied air that Celebrini and company occupy.

This scout compared Stenberg to another No. 1 pick, who has carved out an indispensable role in the shadow of offensive powerhouses Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

“His game feels almost a little [Ryan] Nugent-Hopkins,” Scout No. 1 said.

Nugent-Hopkins was the first-overall pick in 2011, who has had a rock-solid, but not spectacular, career.

Scout No. 2 compared Stenberg to Colorado Avalanche mainstay Gabriel Landeskog in June.

“He’s more hard skill, more F.U. skill than [Lucas] Raymond,” he said, about another common Stenberg comp. “But not as creative.”

For what it’s worth, Landeskog was the No. 2 pick of the 2011 draft, after Nugent-Hopkins. But Landeskog edged runner-up Nugent-Hopkins for the 2012 Calder Trophy.

If Stenberg can reach 50 points, that should put him at least in contention for Rookie of the Year. But he’ll probably have to top 60-plus to be a favorite.

In the salary-cap era, 14 forwards, from Alex Ovechkin to Bedard, have won the Calder. They’ve averaged 67 points, on 28 goals and 39 assists.

Matty Beniers (2023), Kirill Kaprizov (2021) and Landeskog (2012) did take home Rookie of the Year at 50-something points.

Can Stenberg surpass these more grounded comps? Good thing, unlike in past seasons, a deeper Sharks squad isn’t counting on teenagers to carry the load.

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