On the heels of another strong cargo month at the Port of Los Angeles, Executive Director Gene Seroka described the rest of 2026 as potentially bringing more modest activity, citing recent projections by the National Retail Federation.

While July cargo numbers were 6% below 2025 figures, the port still saw its second strongest July on record, processing 960,464 container units.

Seroka said he anticipates “another strong month in August.”

For now, Seroka said, the demand — and cargo — continues flowing, though it’s all playing out against a shifting global environment, with exports continuing to struggle, falling 8% from last year’s statistics.

“Demand remains and cargo flows,” Seroka said, “even as the pace of the cargo flow levels off.”

Seroka’s guest during his monthly news conference on Tuesday was Lance Hastings, the president and CEO of the California Manufacturers and Technology Association. Hastings acknowledged that there is “a little bit of anxiety” as the year wraps up.

Consumer demand going forward — and how that rises or falls — will continue to be the most important indicator, Seroka said.

Other ongoing shifting factors include possible tariffs and global unrest, both Seroka and Hastings said.

The impact of the early peak season is slowing down and the rest of the calendar year could see more modest numbers, the National Retail Federation said earlier this month.

“This year’s peak shipping season is coming to an end,” an Aug. 6 NRF news release said, citing information provided by the Global Port Tracker report, “with import volume at the nation’s major container ports expected to remain high this month before starting to decline for the remainder of 2026.”

Shifting tariff policies caused the peak shipping season to arrive earlier, said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

“Retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain, like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” Gold said in the NRF news release. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”

The once usually predictable monthly cargo flows, Seroka said, have been jostled by what is now generally seen as an earlier and longer traditional “peak season” in shipping.

Normally, Seroka said, the months of August and September — all the way up to Thanksgiving — have been a “peak” cargo shipping season as goods flow into ports and then warehouses in preparation for back-to-school and the fall-winter holidays.

“That’s just not the case anymore,” Seroka said, as companies “want a little more padding” to make sure items arrive in time and dodge any upcoming tariff changes or geopolitical unrest.

“This year,” he added, “many importers saw a window of opportunity from May to June and July to speed cargo to market with the temporary tariffs of 1974 set to expire on July 24” and perhaps be replaced by higher fees.

So if vessel space could be found, Seroka said, shippers chose to send early.

It made sense, Seroka said, to “zip this cargo across the Pacific” and get it into warehouses so it can roll it out as customers need.

Citing the ongoing Iran conflict, Hastings said, predicting what lies ahead is a challenge.

California, though, has an advantage, he added — because it’s a key geographic cargo gateway. But that flow will also depend heavily on ongoing consumer demand, Hastings said.

“The last quarter,” Hastings said, “will be a big indicator of what 2027 will look like.”