Yes, it’s looking dim for both the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates in terms of their playoff chances this year, but I believe in miracles and I believe in the amazing history of MLB playoff races. Remember in 2011 when the St. Louis Cardinals were 8 1/2 games back of a playoff berth on Sept. 1 and then went 18-8, catching the Atlanta Braves on the final day of the regular season and then winning the World Series? Or how about the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays or the 1995 Mariners, both of whom were 7 1/2 games back of a playoff berth on Sept. 1 of those years and then made the playoffs?
There are September surprises every season, and this year I see the Mariners and Pirates filling that role.
As of Monday morning, the Mariners are in third place in the AL West, three games behind the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, and in eighth place in the AL wild-card race, three games out of the third and final wild-card spot. They’d have to pass five teams to get in.
The Pirates are in fourth place in the NL Central, 19 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers, and in seventh place in the NL wild-card, 8 1/2 games out of the third wild-card spot. They need to get past four teams to get in.
It may be easier for Seattle to get in than the Pirates, but for as many years as they’ve been irrelevant, how exciting would it be for a miracle September in the ‘Burgh? Let’s look at how both teams could make some history next month.
Keys to a Mariners run
I believe the Mariners have the best team in the AL West despite their record, and I think winning the division is the best path for them to make the playoffs this year. I don’t understand why this team has played so poorly and underachieved all season long, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get hot and make up for it down the stretch.
The Mariners have the best starting rotation in the division, led by Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock. However, while they have the third-lowest starter ERA in the AL, they have been let down by a mediocre bullpen and a very poor offense. The rotation has hardly been the problem this year, but it may have just gotten stronger, as they promoted the best pitching prospect in baseball, Kade Anderson, on Saturday. He should make an impact the rest of the way.
That said, improvements in the rotation won’t matter unless the talented back end of their bullpen, led by Andres Muñoz, José A. Ferrer, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier, doesn’t step up.
If the Mariners are going to make a push, however, they will need to see a significant increase in production from their underperforming offense. The Mariners are dead last in runs scored in all of baseball and have seen significant drop-offs in production from nearly all of their everyday players.
It’s been a struggle all season for Cal Raleigh, who broke records last year. (Richard Dizon / Imagn Images)
Getting Josh Naylor and company going will be necessary for the Mariners to make a run, but there’s no doubt that the players who will have the most impact on the Mariners’ chances are Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez.
Raleigh nearly won the AL MVP last season and set a new standard for catchers offensively, but he hasn’t looked like himself from either side of the plate all season. His drop-off from 60 HR, 125 RBIs and 168 OPS+ to 14 HR, a .159 BA and a 68 OPS+ is the largest in the history of the game. It’s too late for Raleigh to salvage his overall slash line, but it isn’t too late for him to positively impact the Mariners’ playoff chances if he can find a way to produce in September as he did in any month last season.
Unlike Raleigh, Rodríguez has had a decent season but once again has been way too streaky, and his overall production is down from his career norms. A hot September could get his numbers back to his career average and would do wonders for the Mariners’ postseason chances.
Given how strong their rotation is and the talent in their bullpen, if both Raleigh and Rodríguez get hot for the final five weeks of the season, the Mariners will be celebrating a playoff berth. There is too much talent on this team to be sitting where they are in the standings.
Keys to a Pirates run
For years, it looked like the Pirates were just a good offense away from the playoffs. Ironically, this season the Pirates are finally hitting — they are tied for third with the Los Angeles Dodgers in runs scored in all of MLB — but they are currently not in playoff position.
Their offense could be improving, as the Pirates are expected to get rookie sensation Konnor Griffin back in early September from a finger tendon injury that has kept him out for nearly two months. He could be a difference-maker down the stretch.
But while added offense from Griffin’s return will be helpful, the bigger question is whether the Pirates’ pitching staff will be good enough to fuel a miracle finish.
They certainly have the talent to pull it off. Paul Skenes is having a subpar year, but he’s still the reigning Cy Young Award winner and could be a mechanical tweak away from getting back to that form. Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler are all very talented, though only Ashcraft is having a season that reflects his talent. As a unit, the rotation has been surprisingly middle-of-the-pack this year after it looked like a big strength coming into the season.
The Pirates’ bullpen has been similarly mediocre but has been better of late. Trade deadline acquisitions Camilo Doval and Kirby Yates have been solid additions thus far, and closer Gregory Soto has pitched well since the start of July.
If the Pirates can pitch up to their potential, given the strength of their offense, they have a chance to make a run.
How the Mariners’ remaining schedule looks
Starting Monday, the Mariners finish a quick homestand with three games against the Phillies before a six-game trip to Toronto and Boston, which won’t be easy. However, after that things get easier. They have seven games each remaining against the lowly A’s and Angels, and three games against the last-place Rockies. That’s 17 games against three of the worst teams in baseball.
With the opportunity to play three games against both the Rangers and Astros and potentially make up ground head-to-head, the schedule couldn’t play out any better for Seattle.
How the Pirates’ remaining schedule looks
The Pirates go on the road to face the Padres and Cardinals this week, which could be challenging. However, they then come home to play the Giants and Angels for three games apiece and later in the month get the Royals for three home games.
Their schedule does have some tough challenges ahead, with six straight games against the White Sox and Cubs in Chicago and then later in the month hosting the Brewers and Cardinals for three games each before ending their schedule against the Tigers in Detroit. It’s not an easy schedule, but it’s balanced enough to pull off a miracle.
The Mariners and Pirates have the talent to make the playoffs, but both teams need their starting pitching to be at its best down the stretch if they want to punch their ticket to the postseason. They also both need their star players to play like star players.
It won’t be easy; the odds are against them, but every year teams come out of nowhere and make the playoffs. Maybe one or both of these teams can accomplish that in what many are expecting to be one of the most competitive Septembers in recent times for the sport.