Iran and Oman — the two nations that abut the Strait of Hormuz — met this week and announced new progress toward a “permanent navigational corridor and future administration” of the crucial waterway.
Iran went further, claiming the sides have reached a revenue-sharing agreement on future tolls.
The developments could be new flashpoints with President Trump, who made threats in response to the ongoing talks, including a pledge to bomb Oman if that country “gets in the way.”
Meanwhile, immediate effects on shipping levels in the strait are unlikely. The latest update from ship tracking service Kpler shows that transits “remain subdued,” with just five crossings on Tuesday, all of them through Iran’s preferred route.
Strait traffic has been less than a tenth of prewar levels for weeks, while Trump continues to tout the US blockade and his administration promises new economic sanctions to cut off Iran from the world.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, right, meets his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, in Tehran on Aug. 25. (Iran’s Foreign Ministry, via AP) · Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP
In a note to clients, Signum Global Advisors reacted to the joint announcement, suggesting the progress between Iran and Oman could also put pressure on the US and Iran to make a deal by the fall. It could even get the US on board with joint Iran-Oman control of the strait, due to a variety of factors, including that “the US midterms make the Trump administration vulnerable to last-minute Iranian escalation against Gulf energy infrastructure.”
Differing accounts of the talks — but clear progress
This week’s round of talks between Iran and Oman saw the two sides offer somewhat different accounts, but with both touting progress.
Iran’s military went the furthest, according to the Iranian state-run Sepah News agency, claiming that a revenue-sharing agreement has been reached. It was just the latest signal from Iran that it is determined to impose tolls on shippers despite US wishes.
“Agreements have been reached regarding each country’s share of the strait’s waters as well as Iran and Oman’s share of its revenues,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi reportedly said.
People wade in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz in July, with vessels anchored in the background, near Bandar Abbas, Iran. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP) · AP Photo/Razieh Poudat
Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, Oman’s foreign minister, offered his own summary of the talks, which didn’t mention revenue sharing but cited a push for “practical arrangements to restore safe navigation”.
The Omani official also underlined the unfinished nature of the talks.
“I am hopeful we will soon announce a temporary corridor for the Strait of Hormuz and practical arrangements to restore safe navigation,” he said.
The joint statement signed off by both nations, replete with cordial photos of the meeting, discussed a phased-in approach with the two nations eventually taking charge of policing the strait on a permanent basis — in direct contradiction to Trump’s often-expressed wishes.
The statement also outlined plans for a temporary joint corridor and for clearing the waterway of mines. That would be followed by technical talks toward a permanent navigational corridor and joint administration, “as well as a mechanism for information-sharing, traffic management, and the provision of relevant navigational and security services,” according to Oman’s English translation of the Arabic statement.
Satellite imagery shows the Strait of Hormuz, including Omani territory in the south and Iran to the morth. (Maps4media via Getty Images) · maps4media via Getty Images
Neither Trump nor the White House offered any immediate reaction, but the president has reacted intensely in the past to the notion of Iran and Oman teaming up to control the waterway and not involving the US.
“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s*** out of them,” he told Fox News earlier this month.
The joint statement didn’t discuss any US involvement and comes as Trump has made a series of pronouncements this week that are at odds with it.
Trump claimed that all mines have already been removed from the strait and that Iran is failing due to economic sanctions, and he has repeatedly posted an image showing the Strait of Hormuz as a “new US territory.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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