This week, News 4 Chief Meteorologist Chris Suchan called for the first fall-like cold front to sweep south past the Texas-Oklahoma border, measurably lowering temperatures for the first time despite weeks of weak summer fronts.
“We’ve been grinding this August as we typically do in Texas. I think you deserve to at least see the first single deterministic model run show a cold front in Texas,” Suchan said in a Facebook post, showing a model for September 9. “There’s little skill in forecasts this far out… but like I said, it’s always fun to see the first modeled cold front & does give a little hope we’ll get there.”
September 1 marks the meteorological start of fall. But how common is it for a cold front to reach San Antonio’s city limits that early in September? An AccuWeather meteorologist and long-range forecasters tell MySA it’s more likely to give Texans a break from what has shaped up to be an unseasonably hot August.
According to Chad Merrill, senior metrologist and long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, South Central Texas has experienced a roughly two-week stretch of triple-digit days. That’s significantly higher than the average for that time of year, when highs hover around 95 degrees.
Merrill says this cooler burst of air will drop temperatures by roughly 10 degrees. While that means the greater San Antonio-Austin area will get closer to normal, it also means a temp drop in the afternoons.
“There will be a little bit of cooling around then, but temperatures will only back off slightly above average,” Merrill told MySA.
He went on to say, “Dropping almost 10 degrees will feel cooler for sure. Closer to average would be nice, but it’ll be an improvement.”
There’s also a chance that South Central Texas – and the Lone Star State as a whole – could finally see a slowdown in the persisting drought conditions. San Antonio received only 1.6 inches of rain, tying it with the fourth driest August on record, but Merrill and other forecasters expect cold fronts and rain clouds to kick into high gear in mid- to late-September.
That coincides with months of predictions that a “super El Niño” would form around late September and into October, funneling lots of rainy weather south into Texas. So, while the first cooldown may reach Texas in the first half of September, the following months could be wet and cold.